Why Kurt Warner's Canton Enshrinement May Come Down to Just Two Games

As I'm re-watching A Football Life: Kurt Warner, an hour long NFL Network documentary on the career of Super Bowl champion quarterback Kurt Warner, I've decided to open the debate a couple of years early: is Kurt Warner Hall of Fame-bound?

Trust me, I've done a little research and this may be one of the toughest calls the Hall voters will be forced to make in recent history.

In his 12 professional seasons with the St. Louis Rams, New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals, Warner put up impressive numbers while receiving the league Most Valuable Player award twice and the Super Bowl MVP award following his one Super Bowl victory in 1999 while in St. Louis.

If it came down to his back-story, and how he got into the league, he'd be a first ballot Hall of Famer without a doubt. But unfortunately that's not how the voters make the decision to induct a player into the Hall in Canton, Ohio.

The former grocery bagger and Arena Football League standout went undrafted in 1994. The Green Bay Packers invited him to training camp that summer, but due to a crowded roster in terms of QBs (Brett Favre, Mark Brunell and Ty Detmer), Warner didn't even last until the start of the regular season.

It was following his release from the Packers that the Iowa-native resorted to stocking shelves in a grocery store and playing in the Arena Football League. While playing for the Iowa Barnstormers from 1995 until 1997, Warner threw for 183 touchdowns and over 10,000 yards (the AFL is a much more pass-oriented league). His jersey is retired and he was inducted into the AFL Hall of Fame in August of 2011.

Three productive seasons in the Arena League was enough to get a tryout with the Rams in 1997, and newly-hired head coach Dick Vermeil saw potential in Warner. Prior to his second season with the Rams, starter Trent Green went down with a season-ending knee injury during a preseason match-up. This paved the way for Warner to step in and lead the Rams to an NFC West division title and Super Bowl appearance.

Going 13-3 during the regular season and throwing for 4,300+ yards and 41 touchdowns, Warner won his first of two career Associated Press MVP awards and was the key component of the Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf" offense that featured Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk and Warner's targets Isaac Bruce (future HOF wideout) and Torry Holt.

Receiving a first round bye in the '99 postseason, Warner's Rams got a Divisional round match-up with Minnesota and put up 49 points in the dome. A home Conference Championship win over the Bucs put the league's top scoring offense in the Super Bowl and Warner was the primary reason for this.

A late scoring drive for Warner's Rams against Tennessee in the Super Bowl was enough for the Rams to shock the world and come away with the franchise's first-ever Vince Lombardi trophy. Warner passed for a Super Bowl record 414 yards and two TDs, capturing the Super Bowl MVP award.

Two seasons later he found himself back in the same position––the Super Bowl. Falling a couple hundred yards shy of 5,000 yards (and 36 TDs) in the regular season, the Rams were once again the league's highest-scoring offense. Two straight home postseason victories over Green Bay and Philadelphia put the Rams up against the up-and-rising New England Patriots, led by a quarterback in a similar position as Warner from two seasons ago––Tom Brady.

Thanks to a game-winning scoring drive from Brady and the Pats, Warner fell just shy of a second championship, losing 20-17.

The next two seasons Warner battled numerous injuries and was basically forced out of St. Louis due to the up-and-coming signal caller Marc Bulger (put up 18-4 record during his first two seasons in STL, 2002-03).

It could be argued that Warner's legacy in St. Louis may be tarnished by the unproductive, injury-riddled final two seasons. During that time Warner went winless in his seven starts over those two seasons and the 32-year old was forced out by a younger guy who outperformed Kurt.

Two days after being released by the Rams in the off-season leading into the 2004 season, Warner signed a two-year deal with the Giants. His Giant career was short-lived, as he merely was there to help shape the rookie Eli Manning. In his nine starts that season, Warner was 5-4 and posted an 86.5 QB rating. It was thought that this was the end of the then-33-year old's career.

However, he was given one last chance by the Arizona Cardinals, signing a one-year, $4 million contract with them prior to 2005. It appeared as though he'd be doing exactly what he did in New York––mentoring a younger quarterback to take his spot. He did get a majority of the starts in his first season as a Cardinal, but the drafting of Matt Leinart in 2006 was a sign of what's to come for the Cardinals.

Warner started the season under center, but ended up starting just five games in '06 (1-5 record) and 11 games in '07 (5-6). It wasn't until the realization that Leinart wasn't likely to fully develop as the Cardinals starter that Warner received his one final shot at another championship: the improbable run of the 2008 Cardinals.

With the help from Pro Bowl wideouts Larry Fitzgerald (96 catches, 1,431 yards, 12 TD) and Anquan Boldin (89 catches, 1,038 yards, 11 TD), the Cardinal offense put up 30+ points on seven different occasions throughout the regular season, winning the NFC West with a 9-7 record. A huge underdog, much like he was throughout his 12-year career, Warner led the Cardinals to three consecutive playoff wins (30-24 over Atlanta, 33-13 over Carolina, 32-25 over Philadelphia) and a Super Bowl berth. The third of his career.

But, as the title of this article suggests, a heart-wrenching 27-23 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLVIII leaves Warner's career with a huge question mark.

Warner's career regular season record of 67-49 (9-4 in the postseason) is superb, but his career numbers leave him on the fence in terms of Hall of Fame-worthy:

116 starts, 65.5 comp %, 32,344 passing yards (29th all-time), 208 touchdowns (t-28th all-time), 128 interceptions, 93.7 QB rating, nine 4th-qtr comebacks, 14 game-winning drives.

It's tough to put a guy in the Hall of Fame based solely on just a handful of excellent seasons. The four-time Pro Bowler played just three complete seasons and had five seasons in which he posted a losing record as the team's starter.

His postseason numbers are a different story, and will certainly get the attention of voters:

13 starts, 9-4 record, 66.5 comp %, 3,952 passing yards (304.0/game), 31 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 102.8 QB rating; six games with 300+ yards, nine multi-TD games, four games with rating over 100.

The two MVP awards and one Vince Lombardi trophy don't appear enough to put him in as a lock at this point in time. However, had he been able to pull off a Super Bowl victory in 2001 and 2008, I think it'd be enough to put him in.

It's also tough not to put a three-time Super Bowl champ in the Hall. This is exactly why the Warner/HOF debate is so tragic, because it may come down to just two games. Games in which he played greatly (365 passing yards and 2 combined TDs vs. New England; 377 yards and 3 TDs vs. Pittsburgh), but was unable to come out on top due to simply being outplayed. The Rams and Cards were outscored by a combined seven points in those two big games in '01 and '08.

There's still plenty of time to debate this, but looking at everything in perspective, Warner may end up needing some generosity coming from voters to find himself inducted into Canton.

What do the readers think: Hall of Fame, or no Hall of Fame?

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Recapping Week 15: The NFC Playoff Picture and Why the Redskins Will Win the East

The NFC at this point is a bit more wide open than the AFC. Three of the four divisions in the AFC have already been spoken for, and one more is on the verge of being claimed as early as this weekend.

The NFC is a different story, with just half of the playoff spots being taken after 15 weeks and only two division titles have been claimed.

In the South, Atlanta already had the division down a couple of weeks ago but are now just one win away (possibly this coming Saturday against Detroit?) from claiming the top seed in the NFC. A convincing 24-0 shutout of the contending New York Giants (8-6) has shown that Matt Ryan's Falcons are still the team to beat in the conference and are two wins ahead of the next team in line, San Francisco (10-3-1).

Here are the headlines from this past weekend in the NFC...

Packers Fend off Bears for NFC North Title; Chicago and Minnesota jockey for playoff spot

At 10-4, Aaron Rodgers and his Packers have taken home the division title for the second consecutive season. With games against Tennessee and Minnesota still left on the schedule, it's possible that the Pack could beat out the Niners for the second seed and a first round bye if the Niners lose to both the Seahawks and Cardinals.

The Bears have hit a sudden wall and, after starting the season at 7-1 and one of the top contenders in the conference, have fallen in 5 of its last 6 games. Now on the outside looking in on the NFC postseason (Chicago and Minnesota are both 8-6, but Vikings hold tiebreaker), the Bears are in dire need of a couple of victories. In order to have a shot, the Bears will need to win both remaining games on the schedule (Detroit and Arizona) and hope the Vikings do not win out.

That will be tough, however, as Adrian Peterson has put the Vikings on his back and carried them to victories despite an underachieving quarterback in Christian Ponder and losing wideout Percy Harvin for the remainder of the season. The Texans and Packers will be seeing a heavy dose of Peterson over the final two weeks and will need to hold him to under 294 yards if they would like to keep him from breaking the single-season rushing record (set by Eric Dickerson in 1984). I'll be looking closer into Peterson's record-breaking chase sometime in the next day or so.

49ers @ Seahawks: Week 16 Game to Watch

Lucky for us, the primetime Sunday night game this weekend will be between the two teams duking it out for the NFC West title. Normally the chase for the Western division title in the NFC is a pretty bland battle, with the winner finishing around 9-7, 10-6. But this year we've seen two young quarterbacks take over the reins and dazzle opponents, making for an unusual exciting finish out West.

Second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick took over for the concussed Alex Smith in San Fran, and hasn't looked back since. In his first five professional starts, the 25-year old Kaepernick has posted a 4-1 record with 7 TDs, 2 INTs and over 1,200 yards. He's pulled off victories against teams such as Chicago, New Orleans and, most recently, the 10-win Patriots on Sunday night, putting up 41 points against one of the AFC's best teams.

The rookie signal caller in Seattle, Russell Wilson, has established himself as the Seahawks' future and is a dark horse candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year this season. Carrying Pete Carroll's 'Hawks to a 9-5 record, Wilson has a shot at once again silencing his critics on Sunday night if he can pull off a victory over the Niners. If the Seahawks win on Sunday, they can clinch a playoff spot. Even if they lose, they can still clinch if the Bears, Vikings and Redskins all lose.

Washington, Dallas Victories, Giants loss means a 3-way tie in East

Did I not tell you this would happen? I believe I did a couple of weeks ago. The "Giant" collapse in New York continued with a 24-0 shutout against the Falcons. Their fourth loss over the last six weeks puts them near the bottom of the list of "in the hunt" teams, at No. 9, while the second Redskins' rookie signal caller came out a victor in his first career start. Dallas' Tony Romo kept his 'Boys in the hunt with a 27-24 overtime victory over Big Ben's Steelers, but it will be Washington that ends up coming out a winner.

The Giants will get a Baltimore team sitting on a 3-game losing streak this Sunday, but with Ray Lewis expected to return I can see the Baltimore defense coming into the game hungry. Very hungry. Another Giants loss and the Cowboys facing the Saints, I believe it will be the Skins who pull out ahead in Week 16, defeating the Eagles in Robert Griffin III's return to action.

At 9-6, it will come down to a Cowboys/Redskins grudge match at Fedex Field in Week 17, a match-up in which the Skins will win, completing the season sweep and wrapping up the NFC East. It's a tough pill to swallow for the Giants, likely finishing out the second half of the season with a 3-5 record and completing 2012 with a 9-7 record. But Eli Manning's inconsistency has held back a team that very easily could be at 10-11 wins right now.

NFC Playoff Scenarios

*Falcons clinch first round bye and No. 1 seed with a win. Can clinch first round bye with a win OR a loss by Green Bay OR a loss by San Francisco.
*49ers clinch NFC West with a win over Seattle. Can clinch first round bye with a win AND the Packers lose.
*Seahawks can clinch a playoff spot with a win over San Francisco.
*Redskins can clinch a playoff spot with a win over Philadelphia AND losses by Giants, Bears and Vikings.
*Giants can clinch a playoff spot with a win over Baltimore AND losses by Redskins, Cowboys, Bears and Vikings.

Note: We do not own the above images. No copyright infringement intended.

Week 7: NFL Divisional Matchups - Part I

There are six division match-ups scheduled for Week 7. A week sure to be full of excitement as some long-standing and bitter rivals meet head-to-head. Part I will feature an analysis of three of these division matchups.

NFC WEST

Seahawks (4-2) at 49ers (4-2)  Thurs. Oct. 18, 8:20pm EST NFL Network

Two power defenses go head-to-head in their first divisional matchup. Though the Seahawks have shown they can upset offensive juggernauts like the Patriots and Packers, facing the #1 overall ranked defense will present a different challenge. Offensively, the 49ers have the statistical edge. In passing yards per game they average 210 to Seattle's 169; rushing yards 176 to 131; and points per game 25.3 to 18.3. The 49ers rely heavily on the run game with backs Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter and they will attempt to establish the run game early. This will be critical but not easy as the Seahawks are only allowing 70 rushing yards per game. It is also critical to establish a run game early because their passing game is mediocre at best with No. 1 receiver Michael Crabtree.

Defensively, they're a closer matchup with each allowing 15 points per game average. And the 49ers have only allowed five rushing touchdowns since 2011, though the Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch was one of them. This matchup will come down to which defense shows up. Both teams will be facing a short week. The Niners are looking to rebound after an embarrassing 26-3 loss to the Giants in Week 6. But the Seahawks have youth and energy, and of course, a stout defense. And under the tutelage of Pete Carroll, they are just young enough to believe they can beat anyone. Expect a low scoring game and possibly more snaps for wide receiver Randy Moss as the 49ers attempt to boost their passing game.

Prediction: 49ers 19 Seahawks 14

NFC SOUTH

Saints (1-4) at Buccaneers (2-3): Sunday October 21, 1:00pm EST Fox

Even without suspended coach Sean Payton, very few people would have predicted that the Saints would be 1-4 and sitting in last place in their division. They are also ranked last in overall defense, allowing 283 passing yards per game and 172 rushing. Look for the Bucs to exploit the Saints defensive weaknesses. Fresh off a 38-10 drubbing of the Kansas City Chiefs, the Bucs receiving tandem of Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams seems to be finally clicking. There is also opportunities for backs Doug Martin and LeGarrette Blount to be very real threats out of the backfield. But the Bucs, whose defense ranks 25^th overall, allowing 312 yards passing per game, will struggle to contain the Saints potent passing offense. The Saints will need wide receiver Marques Colston and tight end Jimmy Graham to continue to play at their 2011 levels. The Saints are coming off a bye week in which they hope to build on the success they had in Week 5 against the Chargers. This will be a battle of offenses and no one puts up big numbers better than Saints quarterback Drew Brees.

Prediction: Saints 31 Bucs 22

NFC EAST

Redskins (3-3) at Giants (4-2): Sunday October 21, 1:00pm EST Fox

With Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora providing some bulletin board material for the Redskins in the offseason, the stage is set for the first meeting between these two division rivals. Umenyiora said that rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III, who is nicknamed RGIII, hasn't yet earned the right to a 'cool' nickname and referred to him as 'Bob Griffin.'  With bulletin board material aside, the Redskins will go into MetLife Stadium to face a team fresh off an impressive 26-3 win over one of the league's best teams, the San Francisco 49ers. In that game, the Giants defense, including LB Mathias Kiwanuka, DE Jason Pierre-Paul, and DT Linval Joseph, continually harassed 49ers QB Alex Smith, particularly in the 4^th quarter, and prevented the 49ers from establishing the run game. The Redskins can expect more of the same.

For the Giants, they will be facing a quarterback in RGIII who has captivated us since his surprising Week 1 win over the Saints right up to his 76-yard run last week against the Vikings. His mobility, accuracy and drive will keep the Redskins in this game. Also rookie running back Alfred Morris has proved an effective every down back that will definitely garner attention. It appears that star receiver Pierre Garcon will continue to be out with a foot injury. Can wide receivers Santana Moss and Leonard Hankerson, along with tight end Fred Davis take up the slack? In the end, the Giants receiving corps, including Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Domenic Hixon, will prove too much for the Redskins weak secondary who have allowed the most yards to opposing receivers. Along with running back Ahmad Bradshaw who has 100+ rushing yards in his last two games, the edge goes to the Giants.

Prediction: Redskins 24 Giants 28

Stay tuned for Part II, featuring Sunday's NYJ/NE, CIN/PIT match-ups and Monday night's Lions/Bears showdown.

Note: statistics quoted (exc. pts per game) are rounded off for clarity


Photo credit
Frank Gore: Jason O. Watson/Getty Images

Thursday Night Fun: Defending Champs Visit Newton's Panthers

I must admit, it's really nice having Thursday night games throughout the season. Seems to make the week pass by quicker. Week 3 kicks off tonight with the defending champion New York Giants visiting the 1-1 Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.

Eli Manning and the Giants are coming off a stunning come-from-behind victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 41-34, on Sunday. A game in which Manning out-passed Tampa's Josh Freeman in the final quarter alone. His two passing TDs in the fourth were enough to erase a 24-13 halftime deficit and his nearly 250 fourth quarter passing yards gave him an eighth-most 510 for the game.

Unfortunately for the 1-1 G-Men, WRs Hakeem Nicks, RB Ahmad Bradshaw and T David Diehl have all been ruled out for tonight's matchup with Carolina's 11th-ranked defense (13th vs. pass, 28th vs. rush).

In Carolina's 35-27 victory over NFC South rival New Orleans Saints on Sunday, which some saw as somewhat of an upset, the offense ran for 219 yards and 3 TDs on 41 attempts. Led by sophomore quarterback Cam Newton's 71 yards, the team spread a majority of the carries between DeAngelo Williams (14) and Jonathan Stewart (11). Both backs ran for 50+ yards and Williams added a 3-yard third quarter touchdown.

Though Stewart (toe and ankle) will be a game-time decision tonight, the Panthers' run game isn't likely to back down against New York's 16th-ranked.

The No. 1 aspect in tonight's game to watch is without a doubt the quarterback showdown between the visiting Eli Manning and Carolina's Cam Newton. Both former No. 1 draft picks, this is surely the match-up to watch.

But, the bottom line here is that I believe the Panther offense will prevail, despite the idea that Stewart likely wont play much even if he is active. Eli without Nicks (10 catches, 199 yards, 1 TD last week) will be tough against a defense that has allowed just two touchdowns through the air thus far this season.

My prediction: Carolina 28, New York 21

Bold Predictions:

*Eli throws 2 INTs

*Cam Newton throws for 250 and runs for another 80; 2 pass TDs, 1 rushing

*Giants held to under 100 yards on the ground

*Jon Beason records another 10 tackles (did so in Week 1 vs. TB)

*New York Giants D: ZERO sacks against Newton

Interesting stat: Cam Newton has thrown for 2 INTs this season, Eli Manning has thrown 3 INTs. All five of those interceptions have come against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Note: I do not own the above images. No copyright infringement intended.

Season Opener is here: Cowboys vs. Giants Preview

The day we've all been waiting for has finally arrived, the 2012 NFL season opener. The defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants will host its fierce NFC East rivals in the Dallas Cowboys. Perfect matchup to kick the season off with.

Yes, I know I know. I have yet to post my final season preview (decked out with division outlooks, playoff/SB predictions and regular season awards, etc.), but I can assure you those will be on the way tomorrow. Unfortunately I've been a bit caught up with the second week of classes, but thanks to just one morning class tomorrow I will have all Thursday afternoon to touch up my final predictions and post them.

But for now, I'll give you a full preview of tonight's matchup, which is set to kick-off at 8:30 pm ET on NBC. Pre-game coverage includes Football Night in America and musical performances by Mariah Carey and No Doubt.

Eli vs. Romo

New York's Manning backed up his 2011 offseason "elite" talk by capturing his second Super Bowl championship in the last four seasons, both against the New England Patriots. His postseason success, in my opinion, has allowed him to surpass his older brother Peyton in that category. For now, anyways.

Romo, on the other hand, is looking at what I would think as a "do or die" season. Romo has had great regular season success and is, in fact, currently second on the all-time passer rating list (96.9) just behind none other than the reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers.

There's no doubt (ha, get it?!) that Romo's regular season success has been there–47-30 record as starter–but in the postseason Romo is a different quarterback. And not in a good way. He's taken Dallas to the playoffs on three separate occasions, but has posted a 1-3 record and, due to not coming up in the clutch, Romo has been labeled by some as an overrated quarterback.

I think Romo is a great quarterback, and I can back that up, but he will need to prove it by taking the 'Boys back to the postseason and stepping his game up a couple of levels this season.

Recently Manning has owned Romo and his Cowboys, winning both division match-ups late last season and he has the targets to continue that streak again tonight.

Defense

Both sides have playmakers (Ware in Dallas; Tuck, JPP and Umenyiora in New York), but New York's front seven, which appears to be fully healthy, will be putting the pressure on Tony tonight. If they can shut down DeMarco Murray early it will force Romo to make some big plays and turn the 'Boys one-dimensional, which they appeared to be for most of last season anyways.

Coaching

Tom Coughlin has demonstrated his ability to keep a squad together in two of the last four seasons, keeping a struggling Giants franchise together for a full 17 weeks, plus postseason. I'd take the proven, experienced Coughlin over the inexperienced Jason Garrett (13-11 coaching record in two seasons at the helm for Dallas) any day of the week.

Fantasy Update

Who to start:

Eli Manning--if he's your primary quarterback, of course. If he's your backup, clearly you should keep him on your bench if you have a top five guy such as Brady, Rodgers or Brees. Duh.

Tony Romo--whether Dallas wins or loses (I'm expecting a NYG victory), Romo will rack up some points. New York's front seven will undoubtably knock him on his backside five to six times (at least), but the yards and a couple of touchdowns will still be there.

Victor Cruz--Cruz will be just fine. For those wondering if he'll have an off year just because he's coming off his break-out season, you're only going to end up looking silly. Of all the Giants players, I feel as though Cruz is most excited for 2012.

Dez Bryant/Miles Austin--Romo's numbers will be there, meaning his two top targets in Austin and Bryant will have big nights. I'm not completely sold on Bryant this season yet, and they are both listed as probable for tonight. But I don't expect them to be effected by their respective injuries, and we could see both as 100-yard receivers tonight with a TD catch each.

Who to sit:

Ahmad Bradshaw--he's listed as probable (hand) and will likely start for New York tonight at RB, but I'm not expecting him to have a huge game. If he's your third back, I'd probably take a chance on him, but I'm just waiting for Manning to come out gunning and Bradshaw to see limited carries with a low effect on Dallas' run defense.

Jason Witten--clearly this is an injury issue. Though he's a game-time decision (spleen), he's last been listed as doubtful and I expect him not to play just in case he isn't fully recovered quite yet. Witten is a no-no at TE this week.

Final take

This will be a close game down to the wire, but New York will prevail in the first official game of the season. Cruz will get to do his salsa dance on two separate occasions as New York captures a thriller at home, 28-17.

Just an fyi: I will be posting my complete Week 1 game picks in the next couple of days (probably Friday or Saturday, after my season preview of course). They will also be available for viewing in the "Game Picks" tab at the top of the page as the season progresses

Note: I do not own the above images. No copyright infringement intended.

The Talking Never Stops

Yeah, it's the off-season. So what? That's not going to stop the trash-talking between rivals. At least not when Osi Umenyiora is around...

The defensive end for the defending champion New York Giants took a shot at Philadelphia Eagles running back Lesean McCoy early this morning via Twitter.

As NFC East counterparts, of course the Giants and Eagles rivalry is heated year in and year out. A guaranteed bloodbath every time the two squads share the field. But unlike many other rivalries in the National Football League, sometimes this one gets a little personal.

Umenyiora and running back McCoy have been known to exchange some words while on the playing field, but they aren't shy on Twitter either. Last offseason McCoy referred to Umenyiora as "overrated and soft" on his Twitter page.

This morning it was Umenyiora, 30, in the middle of a contract dispute with New York, who talked a little smack on his rival. Here's what his tweet read:

Happy Mother's day Lesean Mccoy! Enjoy your special day!!

Seems like a playful jab at McCoy, though knowing Umenyiora and his view on the Eagles I wouldn't doubt his sincerity in his tweet.

Normally I wouldn't even acknowledge an antic like this because it's meaningless, but I just found it very interesting and thought I'd point it out to my readers. Fans and news outlets seem to be making a huge deal out of the tweet, but I personally find this an entertaining way of messing with an opponent.

Come on, people. McCoy and Umenyiora are rivals and aren't very fond of each other. Aren't you glad he's tweeting playful trash-talk rather than violent threats? Not to mention McCoy was asking for it when he called Umenyoria soft.

In the words of New England's Chad Ochocino: "Child, please.."


McCoy has owned the G-Men defense (three 100-yard games and 3 TDs in three pro seasons), yeah. But at the same time Umenyiora has the stats (12.5 career sacks vs. Philly) and the rings (two SB wins w/ NY) to stack up against McCoy and his trash talk.

Neither party (McCoy and Umenyiora) have backed away from the smack talk, and this is just the latest chapter in the NYG/PHI showdown. It's almost as if this rivalry desperately needed something to fuel the fire...

New York Giants' Parade/Fan Celebration at MetLife Stadium (Photos)

With the New York Giants Super Bowl victory parade making its way through downtown Manhattan, followed by the fan celebration inside MetLife Stadium at 3 p.m. (eastern time) yesterday I think it's safe to say we can finally put the 2011-12 season to bed.

Here are some photos I found of both the parade and "after party" celebration at MetLife Stadium, in which the players and head coach Tom Coughlin talked publicly to fans about the season and Super Bowl victory.

It was a great day to be a New Yorker, unless of course you're a Jets fan.

(All photos courtesy of Getty Images)

Fan Celebration:

We can officially enter full off-season mode, starting in 5...4...3...2..and...1, go!

Patriot Killer?: Eli Does it Again

New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning has done it again, beating the New England Patriots 21-17 in Super Bowl XLVI to capture his second Vince Lombardi trophy for his head coach Tom Coughlin. His performance (30/40, 296 yards, 1 TD; 88-yard GW scoring drive with a minute to play) earned him his second SB MVP award, which is one more than his older brother Peyton.

Even more impressive may be that he did so in his older brother's home stadium–Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN.

The result brings up a couple of questions surrounding both Eli and his G-Men, and quarterback Tom Brady and his Pats squad. Is Eli elite? Yes. He is now 8-3 in the postseason (4-0 this postseason) as he threw 9 TDs and just one interceptions over a five week span in January/February. He also defeated future Hall of Famer Brady in two separate Super Bowls. So, yes, I do believe Eli should be considered among the elite and his performance clearly demonstrates that. He out Brady-ed Brady in the fourth quarter, and did that on a consistent basis all season long.

Eli should, and will, be considered a more successful postseason quarterback than his brother, and he joins an elite class of signal callers with multiple championships and multiple MVP awards.

As for Brady? He is now 3/5 in his record-tying five Super Bowl appearances, with both losses coming to the Coughlin/Manning tandem. He did, however, set a Super Bowl record with 16 consecutive completions during the second and third quarters tonight and looked exceptional for the majority of the game. Two Justin Tuck sacks and multiple hits on NY's part may have rattled Brady a bit, throwing off his rhythm. But in all, both quarterbacks played exceptionally well tonight, as expected.

Despite Eli's great overall performance, especially in the fourth quarter, it was New York's running back tandem of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw that essentially won the Giants the game. New York's front 7 put some pressure on Brady, and Eli's targets played well, but it was the 28 carries for 114 yards and a touchdown that allowed New York to control the clock.

They ran for seven first downs and kept Brady off the field for well over half the game, in fact they held the ball for nearly 40 minutes (37:05) and kept the Giants' defense well-rested. Pulling out ahead early allowed New York to focus a little more on the running attack, setting up Eli for some successful play action plays.

Head coach Bill Belichick's decision to allow Ahmad Bradshaw to run the ball in from six yards out with :57 to play will be questioned by fans and analysts for the next several months, I'm sure. But there's no doubt I would have done the exact same thing in that situation. If Bradshaw kneels the ball at the one, Eli could have run the clock all the way down to under :20 and sent Tynes in to kick the go-ahead chip-shot field goal.

Giving Brady the shot to drive New England down the field with a minute to play gave New England their best shot, and dropped passes by Deion Branch and Aaron Hernandez didn't help the cause too much. Although I loved the clutch 4th and 16 reception by Branch. Gronkowski came close to bringing in the hail mary on the final play, but New York was able to knock the ball down before he could get to it.

In all, I was thoroughly impressed by both quarterbacks, and if both have shown signs that they are not done. They both may find themselves in yet another Super Bowl in the coming years. If I was New England, I'd work on improving that defense though.

My pre-season prediction of New England winning the Super Bowl and Wes Welker being named the game's MVP didn't prove to be true, and I have fallen to 7-4 for the postseason (2-2 in WC, 4-0 in Divisional, 1-1 in conference and 0-1 in SB). But, I can't complain with the outcome of this season.

Great game, great season. One more note before I sign off for the evening: Mario Manningham's sideline catch in NY's game-winning drive will be replayed for years to come. Not quite as miraculous as David Tyree's "helmet catch" in Super Bowl XLII, but it was eye-popping nevertheless.

Another fun-filled season is in the books, now the countdown to the 2012 draft in April officially begins!

Photo credit
Mario Manningham: Win McNamee/Getty Images

All-Out Blitz's Super Bowl Prediction

Today's the day we've all been waiting for: Super Bowl Sunday. Since I have yet to announce my Super Bowl prediction I think it's time, considering we are just over six hours away from the opening kickoff in Indianapolis.

I have conducted an experiment in order to fully get a feel for who everyone thinks will win the game, a game in which I think may be one of the most evenly-matched Super Bowls in the league's history–New England is favored by 3 1/2 but I think New York may be the real favorites. The experiment included a simulation using Madden (for my PS2) and Whatifsports.com's free online simulator.

For the Madden simulation I completed a best of nine series in which the two teams played 4-minute quarters (CPU vs. CPU), because I didn't have the time to do complete 15-minute quarters. As for the WIS simulation, all you need to do is set it up and click "play game" and they give you the results right away, so I did a best-of-11 simulation for that one.

In total, there was 20 simulated games played, and here are the results of each "experiment:"

Madden: New England 5 games, New York 4

Average score...NE 12.8, NYG 12.1

Clearly, I don't trust Madden's results will be very accurate. First of all, both quarterbacks played poorly in a majority of the nine games. Secondly, both offenses are bound to score more than 12 or 13 points. While I do agree with how close this game will end up being, the average scores don't seem very reasonable, in my opinion.

WIS: New York 7, New England 4

Average score...NYG 29.4, NE 30.4

New England averaged a whole point more than the winning Giants, which shows me they don't believe the Patriots will have much trouble in blocking New York's front seven. Between the two teams, the offenses were held under 20 points a mere three times, and put up 40 or more on four separate occasions.

What All-Out Blitz thinks

Considering the secondaries of the two teams, and the passing offenses they are matching up against, I think that Whatifsports.com's simulation will end up being much more accurate when it comes to the amount of points being put up on the scoreboard. Both Eli Manning and Tom Brady will be throwing the ball 40-50 times, possibly even 60.

Running games wont be as strong as in past Super Bowls, unfortunately. This could make it hard to put the game away late if one team finds themselves up by a touchdown or two in the fourth quarter.

The 2007 Super Bowl and the match-up earlier in the season means absolutely nothing right now. The media likes to blow this out of proportion and try to compare this game to games in the past, but the players and coaches are focused on today, and doing all they can in their power to win this game.

The key matchup will be New England's offensive line, and two over-sized tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and New York's front 7–led by Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. In the end, Gronkowski's ankle will be fine to play on and he could end up making it a rough day for New York's linebackers and secondary.

Say what you want about New England's secondary, but they have certainly stepped up their game a bit in the postseason compared to the regular season. Vince Wilfork up front will help clog up the middle and contain Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs so they can focus solely on stopping Manning and the passing game.

From a fan standpoint, the outcome of this game plays no effect on how I sleep or how I handle the rest of my week, meaning I really am not cheering for either team and I will simply be taking this game from a professional standpoint.

If Brady wins, he will no doubtably go down as the greatest quarterback to ever play this game. His career accolades would include most postseason wins, four Super Bowls in five appearances, 50 TD passes in one season, 5,000 yards in one season, 7 Pro Bowls, two MVPs, two SB MVPs, two First Team All Pros, etc. His stats stack up with Joe Montana (like I pointed out in the Brady/Montana debate article), so why shouldn't he be seen as the greatest ever if he wins today?

And if Manning wins, that would make it twice that he defeated the mighty Pats in the Super Bowl, allowing him to pass his older brother Peyton with two Super Bowl rings and doing so in Peyton's town and stadium. He'd improve to 8-3 in the postseason, as well. Having two rings would even put him in the talks of a possible call from the Hall after he hangs up his cleats for good.

Positive things would come no matter who wins this game, in my opinion at least. So, when it comes to predicting the winner and score of the game I think it's safe to say I will be pulling no bias, just like I always do.

However, I do feel an obligation to pick the Patriots to win this game considering I predicted them winning the Super Bowl in my 2011 Season Preview article posted back on September 11. I almost lose some of my credibility when you see who I had them going up against (the Eagles), but nevertheless I believed the Pats would win it before the season started, so I'll stick by my pre-season prediction.

Patriots win 28-24, Wes Welker named the game's MVP

Brady's line will protect him much better than they did back in Super Bowl XLII, and he tears up New York's secondary for 250 yards. Manning has a big day as well, but I think it will come down to Brady elevating his play over the younger Manning brother (although I'm still a firm believer in Eli, not one of his many critics).

Photo credit
Helmets/Lombardi trophy: Tim Farrell/The Star-Ledger

Super Bowl Weekend Festivities

I must admit it, this year I have probably watched more Super Bowl coverage than I ever have before. The Pro Bowl seems to help a little with shortening the two week wait in between the Conference Championships and Super Bowl Sunday, but that doesn't mean it isn't still agonizingly long.

This year's coverage has ranged from anywhere between the Eli Manning/Tom Brady legacies following the outcome of the game, the Rob Gronkowski ankle injury and whether or not he'll play, the matchup between New York's front 7 and Brady's protectors up front. There was even a segment on NFL Live explaining how many Tom Brady's there actually are in the Boston area (there's a lot). There's also been a lot of buzz surrounding Colts' franchise quarterback Peyton Manning and owner Jim Irsay regarding the team's future.

ESPN apparently ran of things to talk about earlier this week, because they began to ask all of their analysts who they think would win the big game...and this includes the analysts from other sports that know absolutely nothing about the National Football League.

Another key piece of information to take in about this Super Bowl matchup is that it may be one of the most evenly-played match-ups in Super Bowl history–on paper anyways. Las Vegas has made New England favorites by 3.5, but if you polled the entire Nation, it's likely you will get about a 50/50 consensus. New York won the regular season matchup between the two, and also won the last time these two teams played in the Big Dance (Super Bowl XLII).

Considering they've had one of the hottest defenses in the last month or so, not to mention Eli Manning has been playing the best football of his career, I'd like to think the 9-7 Giants should be favored rather than New England. So I believe it's rather clear as to how close this game will, in fact, end up being.

Super Bowl week, and weekend, isn't just about the game. Lucky for us fans and avid followers it's a week dedicated to the great game of American football. Players all over the league make appearances on Radio Row and parties all over the hosting city (this year it's Indianapolis).

This year there's been an addition to the Saturday festivities. As usual the 2012 Hall of Fame inductees will be announced at 5:30 p.m. eastern time, as selected from the 15 modern day finalists and two senior finalists. But then later on this evening at around 9 p.m. ET the inaugural NFL Honors will take place live in Indianapolis (aired on NBC). The NFL Honors is an award show that will reveal the NFL's 2011 awards in a banquet-style setup.

Personally I think this is a great way to end this busy week and kick off the 2012 Super Bowl for tomorrow's action.

I would have absolutely loved to attend the Super Bowl and participate in the Super Bowl week festivities as either a fan or media member, but maybe it'll happen one day..

Stick around for my post later today in which I will give my take on the 2012 HOF class, and my Super Bowl prediction post will be coming either later tonight or tomorrow morning. Thanks!

Photo credit

Lucas Oil Stadium: washingtonpost.com

XLVI: borrowed from Google

Super Bowl Week: Media Day Tuesday

The Pro Bowl has been played: AFC won the All-Star game 59-41 Sunday evening in Honolulu. Miami wideout Brandon Marshall was named the game's MVP with 6 receptions for 176 yards and a Pro Bowl record 4 TD catches.

Both New England and New York have officially arrived in Indianapolis, IN over the last two days.

And finally, the media have set everything up for a full five days of coverage before Super Bowl XLVI gets underway in Lucas Oil Stadium. You know what Tuesday means, right? Media day.

I'd love to be able to attend, not only the Super Bowl, but the Media Day festivities as well. This year, according to sports writers and television personalities on their Twitter pages, it seems that there are more fans in attendance than media members.

It's true, fans were able to buy tickets for about $25 apiece and attend the day long festivities in Indianapolis. Also, there is apparently plenty of media interviewing media going on in addition to the player and coach interviews.

In other words, Media Day is dedicated to talking about, analyzing, re-analyzing and consuming anything and everything possible. Anything from score predictions to trash-talking can go down on the annual Media Day. Although, considering the conservative Bill Belichick is on one side of things...and the mouthy duo of Michael Strahan and Plaxico Burress are no longer on New York's roster, I doubt any of that will go on this go around.

This day (Tuesday before SB) four years ago Burress guaranteed that the Giants would defeat the undefeated Patriots. New England's Tom Brady simply smiled and laughed when a reporter told him the news, declining to say anything in response. We all know Burress proved right in the end, but that doesn't mean it didn't help stir the pot for New England.

To me Media Day usually seems pretty redundant, and I don't expect anything interesting or "bulletin board material" to come from today, but that doesn't mean we can't all sit back and enjoy a 3 1/2 minute long video of some of the great Media Day memories.

I found this video on Youtube and couldn't resist putting it up for all to enjoy! Obviously, I do not own the video or any of the clips from the video.

I think it's safe to say Denver's Shannon Sharpe wins the crown for Media Day King after his brush up with Atlanta's Ray Buchanan via the Media prior to Super Bowl XXXIII.

One thing everyone wants to know, and still wont know after Media Day is through, is will Rob Gronkowski play Sunday? Good news, however, for Pats fans: he wasn't wearing the walking boot that he was wearing when he walked off the plane upon arriving at Indy.

Gronk is tough, and despite missing yesterday's practice, I have no reason to believe he wont be on that field come Sunday evening.

Giants/Patriots: Super Bowl XLII Rematch

The National Football League's championship game has been set, and it will feature a heavyweight rematch between Bill Belichick/Tom Brady and Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning for the second time in the last five Super Bowls.

The two will face off in Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis on February 5, just four years after Manning led his underdog Giants to a 17-14 victory over the then-undefeated Brady-led New England Patriots.

Brady is looking to join legends Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the only quarterbacks to win four Super Bowls throughout their respective careers. Brady already tied Montana by winning his 16th career postseason game, and he now has a better postseason record than Montana did (16-5).

Eli, on the other hand, is vying for his second Super Bowl title, which would allow him to surpass his older brother Peyton when it comes to rings. I would already crown Eli with the title of better postseason quarterback, to be honest. Throughout Peyton's playoff career he has put up a 9-10 overall record, winning one Super Bowl and going one-and-done on seven different occasions.

Eli's G-men have been road warriors, going 2-0 on the road in the postseason this year (1-0 at home) and going 5-1 on the road under the Coughlin/Manning duo–overall postseason record for Manning is 7-3. He looks to have finally gotten over his inconsistencies on his way to a grand postseason performance this season–76/123, 62%, 307.6 passing yards/game, 8 TDs, 1 INT.

I ran across some interesting facts on Trey Wingo's twitter page about the postseason history that was made in yesterday's pair of championship games:

*The Giants are 5-0 in NFC Championship games.

*First time since NFL/AFL merger that both games were decided by three points or less.

*In the Brady era NE only has three game losing streaks to two teams, the Colts and Broncos. But the Giants, if they win in two weeks, would have won three straight against New England as well.

*Yesterday was only the third time in the last 17 years that two teams with at least 12 wins both lost in the Championship.

(Special thanks to the NFL Live host for providing me with some interesting content for today's article/recap).

AFC Championship: Patriots 23, Ravens 20

Baltimore's quarterback Joe Flacco (5-4 in postseason in four pro seasons), after being called out by teammate and free safety Ed Reed for inconsistent play against the Texans last weekend, stepped up his game and out-passed future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Miraculously, enough.

And though Baltimore's highly-touted defense got little to no pressure on Tom Brady, sacking him just once, they were still able to force two Brady INT's. But miscues in a couple of different dimensions led to Baltimore's eventual downfall. They were given a couple of chances to stay in the game with a couple of forced turnovers on defense and a late three-and-out from NE's offense.

The final drive, however, featured a dropped pass in the end zone by veteran Lee Evans, which would have given Baltimore the lead with under a minute to play, and then a missed 32-yard field goal by the league's highest-paid kicker Billy Cundiff. The kick would have tied the game and likely sent it in to overtime, but instead he shanked it to the left and gave the ball back to Brady & Co.

Cundiff, one of the two scapegoats in the AFC Championship game, wasn't the only player who had a bad day (there's a guy in San Francisco who feels similarly). I, personally, feel really badly for him and Evans both. Both are solid players who happened to make mistakes on one of the biggest stages in football. The only thing that would have been worse is to have that happen in the Super Bowl.

The 23-20 New England victory was the second consecutive 23-20 victory over Baltimore, as they defeated them by that score (in overtime) in their Week 6 matchup last season on Sunday October 17, 2010. Belichick and Brady will be going to their fifth Super Bowl together as a team and hope to join Montana and Bradshaw atop the Super Bowl victory category by the end of the night.

NFC Championship: Giants 20, 49ers 17 (OT)

I got this pick wrong, dropping me to 1-1 on the round and 7-3 in the postseason. I thought to myself that I'd love to see Manning win yet another game on the road, but didn't think the Giants could stay hot for another game. I was wrong.

Both teams struggled early in the game on the offensive side of the ball, having trouble moving down the field. But New York was able to control the clock for nearly 40 minutes despite just 85 rushing yards on 26 carries (3.3 YPC avg.). Manning attempted a career-high 58 passes, completed over half of those attempts for 316 yards and two touchdowns. He had a couple of errant, inaccurate passes but played one of the best games of his postseason career in the wet conditions of Candlestick Park.

Those rainy conditions, of course, were supposed to dampen the passing games of both teams, but that did not stop head coach Tom Coughlin from putting the ball in Manning's hands and letting him do what he's done all season, on his way to his second career Pro Bowl selection. He wont play in the game, of course, because he'll be too busy preparing himself for the Patriots. But it's still nice to see him get the recognition he deserves.

The young Victor Cruz, who I saw play two preseasons ago and knew he would eventually break out in to a receiver to be reckoned with, had the game of his life despite his zero touchdown catches. He caught 10 passes for 142 yards and was Eli's go-to guy on third downs, coming up with big catch after big catch to keep New York alive.

Though it was San Francisco's second-year wideout Kyle Williams who was the cause of two San Francisco miscues–allowing a punt to hit him on the knee and bounce in to NY's hands, and then fumbling a punt deep inside SF territory to give New York the ball back in overtime–the Niners didn't have a game they would like to remember.

Quarterback Alex Smith threw for nearly 200 yards, two TDs and ran for 42 yards while Gore added 74 on the ground, but the offense went just 1 for 13 on third downs. That's not acceptable for a team that expects to contend for the Super Bowl.

Unfortunately the young Williams received a couple of death threats via twitter, but there's no way he should shoulder the blame for the San Francisco loss. If people, or "fans," are sending death threats to, not only players, but the players' families then they should not consider themselves fans. It's ridiculous what some fans do when their team loses a game, and it's making everyone else look terrible.

I sympathize with Williams, Cundiff and Evans and wish them the best in the rest of their professional careers.

But for now, it's on to the Super Bowl! In my preseason predictions I had the New England Patriots winning the Super Bowl (against the Eagles, so I only got part of my prediction correct so far). I feel pretty knowledgable in calling that, but with Manning going up against Brady again, anything can happen. Manning, by the way, is 2-1 in his career against the Patriots. He beat them earlier this season, in SBXLII, and the one loss came on December 29, 2007 (38-35) during the Patriots' 16-0 regular season.

Photo credit

Brady/Manning: Associated Press

Cundiff vs. Pats: Elsa/Getty Images

Kyle Williams: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

And Then there were Four: Conference Championship Weekend

Because I will be out of town for a couple of days, I have opted to post my AFC/NFC Championship preview and prediction article a little earlier than scheduled. After my 4-0 run this past weekend I have improved to 6-2 this postseason–I will add up each regular season week after the Super Bowl is complete and post my results.

With two very evenly matched games this week, anything goes. Meaning it's going to be a tough weekend to predict. No matter which two of the four remaining teams win I really don't think there are any "upsets" per se. All four teams, despite what the seedings say, are pretty even at this point.

New York: has the hottest front 7 out of the four teams right now, sacked GB's Rodgers four times and held Green Bay to 20 points. Eli Manning is also playing some of the best football of his career this postseason, too.

San Francisco: after watching this Niner defense the past several weeks, it's clear to me that they are one of the few defensive units who knows how to tackle. It doesn't hurt that the veteran Alex Smith just outgunned the passing yard king Drew Brees with 36 points last week.

Baltimore: though the defense played an inexperienced rookie quarterback in T.J. Yates, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are hungry and are leading the way for a defense that has a knack for forcing multiple TO's a game. If Flacco steps it up like Reed hopes, then NE's weak pass defense could be in for a long day.

New England: the defense did nothing but pressure Denver's Tim Tebow last Saturday (five sacks, eight QB hits) and Tom Brady showed why he still shouldn't be left off the MVP ballot with a record-tying six touchdown passes (five in the first 2 quarters set a first half record) and 363 yards on his way to a 45-10 blowout.

Now, on to my in-depth look at both games..

AFC Championship: Baltimore at New England--Sunday January 22, 2012; 3 PM ET

What Baltimore must do to win: Ed Reed somewhat called out signal caller Joe Flacco on his poor performance Sunday afternoon against Houston, as he basically stated on SiriusXM's NFL Radio that Flacco needs to step his game up. And I completely agree.

While Flacco did manage to protect the ball and put together a couple of scoring drives, he was also rather inconsistent (14/27, 176 yards, 2 TDs) and his two TD passes were the result of his defense forcing a turnover and giving him a short field to work with. Baltimore's 20 points came in part of Baltimore's stellar defense. Ray Rice was ineffective in the run game (60 yards on 21 carries; 2.9 YPC).

Obviously Baltimore will have to play stellar defense, once again, to defeat the Patriots. But more importantly Flacco needs to step up and be a leader, rally his teammates and drive the ball down the field. This also means Rice must be effective. One simple way to beat Tom Brady is to keep him off the field, and eating away at the clock with long, successful scoring drives is the perfect way to do this.

BAL wins if: Flacco completes more than 50% of his pass attempts...Ray Rice gets 20-25 carries and his EFFECTIVE with the ball, meaning 100+ yards and a TD...B-More's defense produces at least three NE turnovers.

What New England must do to win: How did the New England Patriots fluster Tim Tebow so much without even breaking a sweat? Pressure. Pressure. Pressure. Tebow and Flacco are different types of quarterbacks, but that doesn't mean this wont bring the same pressure. Tebow is typically a run-oriented quarterback and enjoys throwing on the run, but New England was fast enough on its feet to flush him out of the pocket and either get him down before he can get the ball out, or force a throw-away.

As for Flacco, he is more of a pocket-passer and isn't the most mobile quarterback. You get enough pressure on Flacco and he will start forcing throws. I think this is what analysts have been most critical on Flacco with his inconsistency. He tends to throw errant passes while under too much pressure. Brandon Spikes and Rob Ninkovich need another top-notch performance in this one if the Patriots' defense expects big things.

Obviously the passing is going to be there on Brady's part, especially after watching his performance last week, but if they can establish a run game early and use it effectively, it would add a much-needed dimension to Brady's pass-happy offense.

NE wins if: Pats offense stays mistake-free and can move the ball up the field quickly..If I was in NE's position I would try and get ahead early and force BAL to rely on Flacco's arm, when under pressure I think New England's D can do what they've done best this year: force mistakes and capitalize.

My Prediction: Patriots 28, Ravens 17

As much as I'd like to see a "HarBowl," (Ravens/Niners) or a Super Bowl XXXV rematch (Ravens/Giants) this year, I just don't see it happening. I don't think Flacco has what it takes to keep up with Tom & Co. and let's be honest, there's no way Baltimore can manhandle New England's offense like they did to the young Texans on Saturday. Change of heart has forced me to take the safe pick in this one and go NE.

Whatifsports.com's Prediction: Ravens 23, Patriots 7

The simulation I ran clearly thinks differently about this one, and has the Ravens pulling off quite a convincing victory on the road in Foxboro. Should be a good one!

NFC Championship: New York at San Francisco--Sunday January 22, 2012; 6:30 PM ET

What New York must do to win: Eli has been putting up great stat-lines and upsetting teams left and right, rather reminiscent of his 2007 run to a Super Bowl championship and SB MVP award in which he sleighed the "giant" favorites in the undefeated New England Patriots. With a 300-yard, 3 TD game against the mighty 15-1 Green Bay Packers, it may seem that the sky is the limit for Eli at this point. And I kind of agree.

While the San Francisco 49ers' defense is tops in the league right now, and they love to fly around and hit guys, and force turnovers. You know, the same thing any great defense loves to do (*cough* *cough* Baltimore *cough* *cough*). Which puts a huge "if" on Eli's shoulders. He must protect the ball. That's No. 1 priority for New York. I'm sure coach Coughlin will have him slinging the pigskin down the field and spread the offense out, but careless mistakes is one thing he can't afford, and I don't think he will be making any of them.

For New York's defense, they will be bringing the pressure, no doubt about that. But if they can't get to Alex Smith on every play they need to at least key in on Vernon Davis, maybe stick two guys on him. It'll be tough, because most linebackers are too slow to keep up with Davis and most safeties are too small, Davis will simply run right through them. But if they can effectively keep Davis covered I think they can minimize SF's passing attack and make them one-dimensional.

NY wins if: Like I just said, eliminate Davis from the offensive production and the Niners' receiving corps is much weaker...Eli will be slinging the ball, but NY's run game will play a huge effect in balancing the offense...split carries between Bradshaw/Jacobs to keep them fresh and NY can control the clock on their way to a victory.

What San Fran must do to win: New York has a lot of weapons on the offensive side of the ball with Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham creating a triple threat in the passing game and Brandon Jacobs/Ahmad Bradshaw making a double-duo in the running game. Eli has been playing great, like I've been saying, but Green Bay didn't effectively pass rush him (sacking him just once, one INT). San Fran has thrived off creating short fields with turnovers, that's exactly how they took an early 17-0 lead over the Saints last Saturday.

Put pressure on Eli early and often and take chances on cutting off routes and going for the big play on defense. Considering the Niners' are the best run defense in the league, by far, I really don't think they are too concerned with the two-headed monster in Bradshaw and Jacobs.

I would expect 30-40 pass attempts from Manning in this one, and I'd love to see coach Harbaugh take the shot at having Smith compete with Manning through the air. I said earlier that I think if New York can keep Vernon Davis quiet they have a chance at shutting down the passing game, but we could also see Michael Crabtree step it up to a new level and Frank Gore is always a threat in the passing game as well. If San Fran goes pass-for-pass with the Giants' Eli, I think they actually may have a shot considering they aren't facing their own tough-as-nails defense in this one.

SF wins if: Smith out-passes Eli and is able to protect him up front...Frank Gore was an impact player last game with 89 yards but he only got 13 carries, can you imagine the damage he would have done had he gotten 20-25 carries? I can't...Get Gore involved and NY may be in for a rough day.

My Prediction: 49ers 31, Giants 28

I've been pulling for New York to repeat its 2007 campaign all postseason, and I really do believe Eli has what it takes to capture ring No. 2, so it wouldn't surprise me. But after watching Alex Smith shred the Saints for 36, and Frank Gore only get 13 touches, I can't imagine what they could do against these Giants with a more involved Gore...not to mention SF's stout defense. It's close, but Niners pull it out in the end.

Whatifsports.com's Prediction: 49ers 20, Giants 6

This time we agreed on the outcome, however, once again the simulator predicted a rather lop-sided score. Interesting. I don't particularly agree with the deficits they have given me, but when it comes to the NFL playoffs, anything is possible I suppose.

_____

Super Bowl in Indy will be, according to my calculations, the 49ers and the Patriots. I had the Patriots winning the Super Bowl in my preseason predictions, but their opponent was supposed to be the "dream team" (according to Vince Young, at least) in the Philadelphia Eagles. It appears as though that half of my prediction went down the drain long ago.

Photo credit

Brady-Welker-BJGE-Edelman: Elsa/Getty Images

Gore: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Eli Manning Among the Elite Now?

For years Peyton Manning's little brother Eli has been battling doubters and critics alike. Is he an elite quarterback? Can he lead his team to a Super Bowl victory? Does he have the intangibles to consistently put up Peyton-like numbers year-in and year-out?

Those were the questions being asked, even after he won three consecutive road playoff games and upset the undefeated New England Patriots for a Super Bowl title in the 2007-08 season.

Instead of holding him to his own standard, NFL fans, followers and experts have held Eli to his older brother's standards. If he does not throw 4,000 yards, 40 TDs and lead the Giants to a 13-3 regular season we call him a failure and keep him out of the "elite" status.

Before this season started he was asked whether or not he should be seen as among the elite quarterbacks such as his brother, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. He initially declined and said he does not belong on that list.

But he later told ESPN 1050's Michael Kay "..I consider myself in that class and Tom Brady is a great quarterback, he's a great player and what you've seen with him is he's gotten better every year and he started off winning championships and I think he's a better player than what he was, in all honesty, when he was winning those championships.


"It's funny, you say well he won championships, but the team won them. But I think now he's grown up and gotten better every year and that's what I'm trying to do. I kind of hope these next seven years of my quarterback days are my best."

Fast forward to this past weekend I think it's safe to say Eli is well on his way to joining those quarterbacks after de-throning the defending Super Bowl champions, who were 15-1 in the regular season, and doing so on the road at the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.

This was, of course, not the only time he has sent the Pack home packing in the NFC playoffs at Lambeau. The same event occurred in the 2007 playoffs when he battled below-0 wind chill and knocked off the Brett Favre-led Packers in the NFC Championship game. In the previous matchup Eli got additional help from New York's defense and the right leg of kicker Lawrence Tynes in overtime.

This time around? Eli seemingly put the team on his back and carried the G-Men to a 37-point romp of the MVP favorite Rodgers.

Linebacker Michael Boley and defensive end Osi Umenyiora did provide some insurance with a total of four sacks of Green Bay's Rodgers, but in the end it was Eli who took over the show by out-passing fellow Super Bowl MVP by 66 yards. Manning threw for three touchdowns and sacked just once.

With the run game averaging just 3.5 yards/carry on 27 attempts, Manning was forced to take the game over with his arm and he did not disappoint head coach Tom Coughlin, who is now 10-7 in the postseason as head coach.

Eli put up one of his best regular seasons, in terms of numbers, this past season on his way to his second career Pro Bowl selection. Although he has led the league in interceptions twice in his eight-year career, there's no doubt his play has elevated once he hits the postseason. In fact, he has thrown just eight INTs with 14 TDs in nine career postseason starts, and three of those interceptions came in his playoff debut as a second-year pro in 2004 (NYG lost 23-0 to Carolina).

On the road in the playoffs, Eli has put up a 5-1 record with his lone loss coming against Philadelphia in 2006 with a 23-20 defeat at the hands of Jeff Garcia and Brian Westbrook. This postseason Eli has been near-perfect, throwing for 607 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT (44 for 65) and outscoring opponents 61-22.

Depending on how the rest of this postseason plays out, Eli could further distance himself with the average NFL quarterbacks and elevate into successful playoff quarterback status, and possibly even get himself a second Super Bowl MVP award at the young age of 31.

Photo credit

Manning: Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Quote credit
Published on profootballtalk.com

Divisional Round Preview: Sunday's Games

We're halfway there as two more teams were eliminated Saturday night. San Francisco lived on after knocking off the third-seeded Saints with a late game-winning touchdown from Alex Smith to Vernon Davis while the Pats blew out the Tim Tebow-led Broncos.

A full recap and review of Saturday's Divisional round games will be coming soon, but for now I will bring you my preview of Sunday afternoon's games as we find out who the other two teams will be playing next Sunday.

I went 2-0 in today's games, let's see if I can go 2-0 on Sunday and improve my playoff record to 6-2.

#3 Houston at #2 Baltimore--Sunday January 15, 2012 1 PM ET

Both of these two teams are so similar in style of play: hard-nose, smashmouth defense who can put up points on the board and be the difference in a game and an explosive running game. With a third-string rookie quarterback under center for Houston, I can imagine that Houston will run the ball early and often.

If I'm Baltimore's John Harbaugh, I'm not so sure if I can fully trust Joe Flacco with the ball in his hands considering how streaky and inconsistent he has been this season. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron needs to find as many ways as possible to get the ball to running back Ray Rice.

Flacco plays better when he isn't put under pressure and giving Rice his carries gives Baltimore a much better chance at moving the ball efficiently and getting points on the board. Fun for for you: in Baltimore's four losses this season Rice averaged just 9.0 carries per game without any rushing TDs (had one through the air). Why it has taken this long for Harbaugh/Cameron to realize this? I have no clue, but I'm sure they've picked up on it by now.

Arian Foster and Ben Tate, who is making his homecoming back to MD (grew up in Salisbury, MD), combined for the second-best rushing attack this season and will be game-changers in this matchup. Both defenses can stop the run, however, and rookies J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed, and Brian Cushing and Jonathan Joseph for Houston are sure to have big days against Flacco if Baltimore can't protect him adequately.

Bottom line: Houston has a great shot at upsetting the No. 2 seed on the road (Baltimore won meeting earlier this season, 29-14, at M&T Bank Stadium on Oct. 16), but I think Ray Rice will be too much, and Terrell Suggs will have a big day against the young T.J. Yates.

My Prediction: Ravens 28, Texans 17
Whatifsports.com's Prediction: Ravens 23, Texans 19

#4 New York at #1 Green Bay--Sunday January 15, 2012 4:30 PM ET

I called the San Francisco game, which may count as an upset for some people, but this will be the bigger upset and I can sense it happening tomorrow.

New York Giants' Eli Manning is coming off a league-leading 25 interception season last year, but has thrown for a career-high 4,933 yards with 29 TDs. He's played well all season on his way to his second career Pro Bowl selection in eight years. He, along with breakout wideout Victor Cruz, is the reason New York's offense has been so efficient this season.

Between the fact that I have discovered the formula to beating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers and the level that New York's defense (particularly the front 7) have been playing as of late, I think we have a game.

New York was one of the worst running games in the league this season, but in the previous six games the Giants have surpasses 100 yards on the ground and have controlled ball games with a perfect balance between pounding the ball with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw and airing it out with Manning, Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. They really opened up the middle of the field last week against Atlanta, and they certainly have the ability to do so against Green Bay's 32nd-ranked pass defense tomorrow.

All Manning needs to do is protect the football, meaning no turnovers, and the NY defense needs to put as much pressure on Rodgers (the MVP favorite) as possible. How exactly did the Chiefs beat the Pack? Control the tempo and keep Rodgers off the field. Kansas City ran the ball 39 times for 139 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay, possessing the ball for 36 of the 60 minutes of play.

Now that's how you keep Rodgers off the field, and that's how you beat Green Bay. Tamba Hali pressured Rodgers all day long (3 sacks on the day), and I expect NY's Tuck, Umenyoria and Pierre-Paul have a field day against Rodgers. Don't forget: NY nearly upended the Pack in Week 13, losing just 38-35.

My Prediction: Giants 35, Packers 31
Whatifsports.com's Prediction: Packers 28, Giants 23

Photo credit
Ray Rice: Rob Carr/Getty Images
Justin Tuck: Al Bello/Getty Images

NYG/GB: Why We Could see Similar Results to '07 NFC Championship game on Sunday

Quarterback Eli Manning, on his way to a Super Bowl championship in 2007-08 postseason, knocked off legendary Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers in overtime with a little help from Lawrence Tynes' game-winner from 47 yards out.

The game that day, Sunday January 20, 2008, was played at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin at -7 degree weather with high winds and a wind chill factor of -27.

Manning managed to play through that weather and defeat Green Bay on the road thanks to a stout running attack led by Brandon Jacobs (67 yards, 1 TD) and Ahmad Bradshaw (63 yards, 1 TD) and with the high/low of this Sunday being 30/22, we could see Manning making a greater impact in the passing game.

These two squads met earlier in the year as well, with the then-undefeated Packers coming away with a slim 38-35 victory to improve to 12-0. New York played well overall, with Manning (347 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) playing one of his better games of the season and running for 100 yards and a TD as a team. But what they failed to do is put pressure on Aaron Rodgers, who did make one mistake with an INT but still managed 369 yards and 4 TDs.

After watching the KC Chiefs hand Green Bay its only loss of the season, I think I have discovered what it takes to defeat this Pack team: run, run, run.

Green Bay has allowed 100 or more yards on the ground on 10 different occasions this season, but it was Kansas City that pounded the ball the most against the Pack (39 times for 139 yards, 1 TD), which gradually wore down the front 7. Not only that, but it also keeps Rodgers and the offense off the field. A combination of Thomas Jones (15 carries), Jackie Battle (10 carries), Dexter McCluster (5 carries) and Le'Ron McClain (4 carries) was enough to possess the ball for 36 out of the 60 minutes of play.

How to beat Rodgers? Keep him off the field. As simple as that.

Throughout the regular season, New York accumulated just 1,427 rushing yards (last in league) with 17 TDs (sixth in league), and have run the ball for 100 or more yards eight times–never for more than 119 yards. But, during its three-game win streak (including Sunday's Wild Card victory), they have cracked 100 all three games and controlled the time of possession over the last two weeks 68-52.

Lets face it, the Giants are red-hot and have managed to control recent games because of its normally weak rushing attack. If there's one thing I know, it's that Green Bay's running game (1,558 yards, 12 TDs, 3.9 Y/C, 27th in league) isn't much better than that of New York, and a reliable running game is vital when it comes to the NFL postseason.

The saying "offense sells tickets, defense wins championships" will factor in to this matchup as well, with a relentless front 7 in New York. Green Bay's defense, while ranked at the very bottom in pass defense and 14th in run defense, forced a lot of turnovers (38, t-1st in league) and has thrived off that all season.

As for New York, they do that well too (31, t-4th), but they also happen to be one of the best pass-rushing teams in the league (48 sacks, t-3rd) and have numerous playmaking and difference-makers in the front 7: Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, Mathias Kiwanuka. All of which are relentless in their attack, not to mention hungry.

Overall, the passing game and receivers' edge are given to the Packers, as well as the offensive line, in this one. But as far as running attack and defense, the edge certainly belongs to the New York Giants.

Other key stats:

*Though the Packers lead the head-to-head postseason matchup 4-2, the Giants were also considered huge underdogs to the 13-3 NFC East champion Packers back in '07, going up against Favre at home in the frigid weather. Yet, somehow, Manning found himself winner in the end.

*While GB was 8-0 at home this season, the Giants put up a respectable 5-3 road record on its way to a 9-7 season.

*Green Bay has been off for two weeks. That can sometimes work to an advantage–more time to prepare–but it can also sometimes work against a team in terms of restlessness and could make for a slow start in the game.

Just some things to think about while watching the game that I believe could very well end in an upset. After watching the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks upset Drew Brees' Saints in last year's Wild Card round, I believe anything is possible once playoff time rolls around.

My Prediction: Eli, NYG's rushing attack upsets Rodgers and moves on to the NFC Championship game.

Photo credit

Eli Manning: greenbaypostgazette.com

Jordy Nelson: Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Osi Umenyiora: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images