Why Kurt Warner's Canton Enshrinement May Come Down to Just Two Games

As I'm re-watching A Football Life: Kurt Warner, an hour long NFL Network documentary on the career of Super Bowl champion quarterback Kurt Warner, I've decided to open the debate a couple of years early: is Kurt Warner Hall of Fame-bound?

Trust me, I've done a little research and this may be one of the toughest calls the Hall voters will be forced to make in recent history.

In his 12 professional seasons with the St. Louis Rams, New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals, Warner put up impressive numbers while receiving the league Most Valuable Player award twice and the Super Bowl MVP award following his one Super Bowl victory in 1999 while in St. Louis.

If it came down to his back-story, and how he got into the league, he'd be a first ballot Hall of Famer without a doubt. But unfortunately that's not how the voters make the decision to induct a player into the Hall in Canton, Ohio.

The former grocery bagger and Arena Football League standout went undrafted in 1994. The Green Bay Packers invited him to training camp that summer, but due to a crowded roster in terms of QBs (Brett Favre, Mark Brunell and Ty Detmer), Warner didn't even last until the start of the regular season.

It was following his release from the Packers that the Iowa-native resorted to stocking shelves in a grocery store and playing in the Arena Football League. While playing for the Iowa Barnstormers from 1995 until 1997, Warner threw for 183 touchdowns and over 10,000 yards (the AFL is a much more pass-oriented league). His jersey is retired and he was inducted into the AFL Hall of Fame in August of 2011.

Three productive seasons in the Arena League was enough to get a tryout with the Rams in 1997, and newly-hired head coach Dick Vermeil saw potential in Warner. Prior to his second season with the Rams, starter Trent Green went down with a season-ending knee injury during a preseason match-up. This paved the way for Warner to step in and lead the Rams to an NFC West division title and Super Bowl appearance.

Going 13-3 during the regular season and throwing for 4,300+ yards and 41 touchdowns, Warner won his first of two career Associated Press MVP awards and was the key component of the Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf" offense that featured Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk and Warner's targets Isaac Bruce (future HOF wideout) and Torry Holt.

Receiving a first round bye in the '99 postseason, Warner's Rams got a Divisional round match-up with Minnesota and put up 49 points in the dome. A home Conference Championship win over the Bucs put the league's top scoring offense in the Super Bowl and Warner was the primary reason for this.

A late scoring drive for Warner's Rams against Tennessee in the Super Bowl was enough for the Rams to shock the world and come away with the franchise's first-ever Vince Lombardi trophy. Warner passed for a Super Bowl record 414 yards and two TDs, capturing the Super Bowl MVP award.

Two seasons later he found himself back in the same position––the Super Bowl. Falling a couple hundred yards shy of 5,000 yards (and 36 TDs) in the regular season, the Rams were once again the league's highest-scoring offense. Two straight home postseason victories over Green Bay and Philadelphia put the Rams up against the up-and-rising New England Patriots, led by a quarterback in a similar position as Warner from two seasons ago––Tom Brady.

Thanks to a game-winning scoring drive from Brady and the Pats, Warner fell just shy of a second championship, losing 20-17.

The next two seasons Warner battled numerous injuries and was basically forced out of St. Louis due to the up-and-coming signal caller Marc Bulger (put up 18-4 record during his first two seasons in STL, 2002-03).

It could be argued that Warner's legacy in St. Louis may be tarnished by the unproductive, injury-riddled final two seasons. During that time Warner went winless in his seven starts over those two seasons and the 32-year old was forced out by a younger guy who outperformed Kurt.

Two days after being released by the Rams in the off-season leading into the 2004 season, Warner signed a two-year deal with the Giants. His Giant career was short-lived, as he merely was there to help shape the rookie Eli Manning. In his nine starts that season, Warner was 5-4 and posted an 86.5 QB rating. It was thought that this was the end of the then-33-year old's career.

However, he was given one last chance by the Arizona Cardinals, signing a one-year, $4 million contract with them prior to 2005. It appeared as though he'd be doing exactly what he did in New York––mentoring a younger quarterback to take his spot. He did get a majority of the starts in his first season as a Cardinal, but the drafting of Matt Leinart in 2006 was a sign of what's to come for the Cardinals.

Warner started the season under center, but ended up starting just five games in '06 (1-5 record) and 11 games in '07 (5-6). It wasn't until the realization that Leinart wasn't likely to fully develop as the Cardinals starter that Warner received his one final shot at another championship: the improbable run of the 2008 Cardinals.

With the help from Pro Bowl wideouts Larry Fitzgerald (96 catches, 1,431 yards, 12 TD) and Anquan Boldin (89 catches, 1,038 yards, 11 TD), the Cardinal offense put up 30+ points on seven different occasions throughout the regular season, winning the NFC West with a 9-7 record. A huge underdog, much like he was throughout his 12-year career, Warner led the Cardinals to three consecutive playoff wins (30-24 over Atlanta, 33-13 over Carolina, 32-25 over Philadelphia) and a Super Bowl berth. The third of his career.

But, as the title of this article suggests, a heart-wrenching 27-23 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLVIII leaves Warner's career with a huge question mark.

Warner's career regular season record of 67-49 (9-4 in the postseason) is superb, but his career numbers leave him on the fence in terms of Hall of Fame-worthy:

116 starts, 65.5 comp %, 32,344 passing yards (29th all-time), 208 touchdowns (t-28th all-time), 128 interceptions, 93.7 QB rating, nine 4th-qtr comebacks, 14 game-winning drives.

It's tough to put a guy in the Hall of Fame based solely on just a handful of excellent seasons. The four-time Pro Bowler played just three complete seasons and had five seasons in which he posted a losing record as the team's starter.

His postseason numbers are a different story, and will certainly get the attention of voters:

13 starts, 9-4 record, 66.5 comp %, 3,952 passing yards (304.0/game), 31 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 102.8 QB rating; six games with 300+ yards, nine multi-TD games, four games with rating over 100.

The two MVP awards and one Vince Lombardi trophy don't appear enough to put him in as a lock at this point in time. However, had he been able to pull off a Super Bowl victory in 2001 and 2008, I think it'd be enough to put him in.

It's also tough not to put a three-time Super Bowl champ in the Hall. This is exactly why the Warner/HOF debate is so tragic, because it may come down to just two games. Games in which he played greatly (365 passing yards and 2 combined TDs vs. New England; 377 yards and 3 TDs vs. Pittsburgh), but was unable to come out on top due to simply being outplayed. The Rams and Cards were outscored by a combined seven points in those two big games in '01 and '08.

There's still plenty of time to debate this, but looking at everything in perspective, Warner may end up needing some generosity coming from voters to find himself inducted into Canton.

What do the readers think: Hall of Fame, or no Hall of Fame?

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Vikings, Cards Top List of Surprise Teams

Every NFL season, a team seems to come out of nowhere and shake our faith in what we think we know about how they will perform. The 2012 season has proved no different. A few teams have already exceeded expectations and find themselves ranked at or near the top of their respective divisions. Here are some of my favorite surprise teams this year:

Minnesota Vikings, NFC North

Before the season began, the Vikings were not even in the discussion when pundits talked about the NFC North. The Green Bay Packers were crowned top dog with the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions nipping at their heels. The Vikings were barely an afterthought. But now through 5 games, they lead the division, tied with the Bears at 4-1.

 Keys to success:

• Christian Ponder is emerging as an efficient passer who recognizes coverages and protects the ball. He's averaging a 95.5 passer rating and has only thrown two interceptions, both in Sunday's game against the Titans. In that game, he showed poise and maturity by quickly recovering and completing 11 of 12 passes in the second half.
• Offense -- The Vikings have rolled out a dynamic offense highlighted by wide receiver Percy Harvin and shored up by running back Adrian Peterson and even tight end Kyle Rudolph.
• Defense -- Perhaps the most improved aspect of the Vikings game is the defense. First year defensive coordinator Alan Williams seems to have them back on track and improving every week. Safeties Jamarca Sanford and Harrison Smith look strong in the secondary while defensive end Jared Allen heads up an impressive front four who are among the best at rushing teh passer and stopping the run.

Arizona Cardinals, NFC West

The talk coming out of Arizona before the season started centered around who the quarterback would be. With neither John Skelton nor Kevin Kolb distinguishing themselves during preseason, it's no wonder the announcement naming Skelton the starter came only one week before the regular season began. With instability at the quarterback position, the Cardinals weren't given much chance for success. But then they started the season 4-0 and suddenly looked like a team to be reckoned with in the NFC West.

Keys to success:

• Defense -- The Cardinals defense will be key. They will be tasked with keeping games close like they did their first four games. Even with the great wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals offense will not be a juggernaut. And the running game has taken a hit with Beanie Wells, and now Ryan Williams out for the season with injuries. With players like linebackers Sam Acho and Daryl Washington, the Cardinals defense will need to continue to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So far, they are 5^th in points allowed (15.6) and have only allowed 6 touchdowns through 5 games, the fewest in the league. And with one of the best young cornerbacks in the game in Patrick Peterson, the Cardinals have an opportunity to be legitimate contenders.

Honorable Mention: St Louis Rams, NFC West

Let's face it – in the NFL, as in other sports, there are certain teams that other teams count as an automatic “W.” Rightly or wrongly, consciously or subconsciously, some teams are just not taken as a viable threat. The Rams found themselves as one of 'those' teams last year, finishing 2-14 for the season. Teams should not take them for granted this year, however. Through 5 games, they have already topped last season's record and stand at 3-2. Though a 3-2 record may not be worthy of calling them a true surprise team, they are worthy of keeping an eye on. Head coach Jeff Fisher has brought a new attitude which is evidenced in the Rams' inspired play, especially on defense. Adding Cortland Finnegan at cornerback, along with Janoris Jenkins, adds a feisty, hard-nosed edge to the secondary. Defensive ends Robert Quinn and Chris Long highlight a formidable pass attack no team can take for granted. How the Rams deal with injuries, particularly to the No. 1 receiver Danny Amendola, will determine whether their progress continues upward or not.

Obviously, there is still a lot of football left to play. These teams could actually tank from here on out making their great starts just a distant memory. Each team has their own particular flaws to overcome, but for now, they are at least in the discussion of possible playoff contenders.

Rams Host Kolb, Fitzgerald on Thursday Night

Don't you just love the new Thursday Night Football schedule? Football games every Thursday night, couldn't be better.

Tonight, beginning in just a few minutes on NFL Network to be exact, the 2-2 St. Louis Rams host one of the three remaining undefeated teams in the 4-0 Arizona Cardinals.

With the perfect record on the line, Kevin Kolb and Arizona's 15th-ranked overall offense will look to continue its hot streak. Thus far this season, however, its been the Cardinal defense that has kept the squad in games and allowed them to upset teams such as the Patriots and Eagles.

The Rams are 2-0 at home this season, defeating the Redskins 31-28 (thanks in part to a huge mistake of WR Josh Morgan) and the Seahawks 19-13 this past weekend.

But, the Cardinals defense has yet to allow any more than 21 points to a team and has a perfect 1-0 record on the road, entering a tough crowd in New England and coming away with a Week 2 victory. The No. 3 overall defense (21st against pass, 16th against run) will be a tough match for quarterback Sam Bradford and the Rams' 24th-ranked overall offense.

It'll certainly be an interesting matchup with Larry Fitzgerald going up against St. Louis' secondary, led by feisty cornerback Cortland Finnegan, who have allowed just 2 passing touchdowns in four games.

I wont be calling for an upset tonight, however, as Kevin Kolb has been playing great football and with Fitzgerald having two consecutive games with a receiving touchdown, I expect another big game from Arizona's passing offense.

My prediction: Arizona improves to 5-0 with a 31-14 victory over St. Louis.

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The Age-less Holliday: A Look into Vonnie's 14-year Career

While I was sitting in my apartment watching the Cardinals/Titans Week 3 preseason matchup last night, I made a very interesting discovery: Vonnie Holliday is still in the NFL.

In the league since 1998, the 36-year old Holliday has played with the likes of Reggie White, LeRoy Butler, Hardy Nickerson, Scott Fujita, Jared Allen, Zach Thomas, Jason Taylor, Elvis Dumbervil, Champ Bailey and London Fletcher over the last 14 seasons.

While I was aware that Holliday had been involved in the Tim Hightower trade that sent him from Washington to Arizona last summer, I was surprised to see that Holliday was in uniform last night after recording just 16 total tackles in his first season with the Cards last year.

Playing for four different teams since 2008 (Dolphins, Broncos, Redskins, Cardinals), it's clear that Holliday no longer makes the impact on defense that he used to. But there's no doubt it was still nice to see him on the football field for his second season as a Cardinal.

The 6-foot-5, 285 pound defensive lineman has not played a full season since 2008, starting 15 of his 16 games in his final season with Miami. Recording 45 tackles and 3.5 sacks at defensive end, Holliday finished the season with the third-most sacks on the team behind Joey Porter (17.5) and Matt Roth (5).

Coming in to the league as the No. 19 overall selection by the Green Bay Packers in 1998, hailing from the University of North Carolina, Holliday recorded 52 tackles and set a franchise rookie record with eight sacks in 12 starts. He never surpassed the eight sack total throughout his career, coming close with seven on two separate occasions ('01 with GB and '06 with MIA).

Playing with six different teams, Holliday's longest tenure was the five seasons he spent in Green Bay from 1998-2002. He started a full 16 games just twice over that five year span, yet he managed to record 252 total tackles, 32 sacks, 5 forced fumbles and 2 interceptions in 63 starts (50 tackles, 6.5 sacks per average season).

Holliday signed a five-year, $21.3 million deal with Kansas City as a free agent in 2003, spending two seasons with the Chiefs before numerous injuries forced his release at the end of the 2004 season.

Signing with Miami a few weeks later, Holliday made the switch to defensive tackle where he helped clog up the middle of the line for four seasons. Holliday was one of the best up the middle for several seasons, in addition to his ability to get to opposing quarterbacks. Holliday was most effective with Miami in his first two seasons with the team (2005 and 2006), combining for 12 sacks in two complete seasons.

More injuries slowed down his production in 2007 and '08, and he failed to produce once he left Miami. Three starts with Denver in 2009, two starts with Washington in 2010 and zero starts last season with Arizona. And that brings us to today.

Last night, he did see the field, though it was minimal and did not have much of an impact. He's a longshot to make the final roster, in my opinion, but it's a nice story at least.

I think Holliday, who will be 37 in December, is heading towards the end of the road in the National Football League. And I think the All-Out Blitz is one of the few sites out there dedicating an entire post to Holliday and his NFL career. Someone's gotta do it, right?

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Hall of Fame Game: Saints Win, Kolb Suffers Setback

The 2012 season officially got underway last night in Canton, OH as the first exhibition game was played at Fawcett Stadium.

Fresh off signing his big-time contract extension, Drew Brees led his Saints–in the process of recovering from the Bounty Scandal–to victory over the Arizona Cardinals, 17-10.

Brees stepped right in and appeared to pick up where he left off in 2011, when he broke the single-season passing record with 5,476 yards. Brees completed four of his five attempts for 41 yards in his only series of the game, leading New Orleans down the field on a 77-yard scoring drive. Running back Mark Ingram ended the drive by running in from one yard out.

Chase Daniel took a majority of the snaps for New Orleans, attempting 20 passes, completing 15 of them for 203 yards, a TD and a pick.

There were replacement officials officiating the game, in the midst of the current battle going on between the regular officials and the league over a new contract (owners have locked out the officials). While it appears there were a couple of no-calls that should have been called, I'd like to think they did an overall decent job, considering they aren't quite ready for action, according to veteran official Tom Barnes.

Just like the replacements officials, it's clear that the preseason is for tune-ups and getting comfortable, meaning the winner and the score of these exhibition games does not mean a thing. However, it is vital for guys who are in position battles to look in tip-top shape throughout the preseason. Its often the preseason games that they are judged and analyzed by the coaching staff, rather than during practice.

This is why I believe that Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb is on the hot seat after last night's dismal performance. First off, his first pass of the game was an off-balance, across-his-body interception by Malcolm Jenkins. Kolb left the game with a rib contusion after being tackled by Sedrick Ellis and landing on his shoulder.

Kolb went 1-for-4 with four yards and the interception to Jenkins, and he narrowly escaped being sacked in the end zone for a safety on two separate occasions.

Lets face it, Kolb took a huge step backwards in his battle for the starting quarterback position, especially when you consider that John Skelton, who went 5-2 in seven starts last season, jumped in for Kolb and looked impressive.

Skelton was taken out of the game prior to halftime, in favor of the 29-year old Richard Bartel, but he did manage to lead the Cards down the field on a 10 play, 69-yard scoring drive, capped off with an Alfonso Smith 4-yard rushing touchdown to knot the game up at seven.

Skelton left the game going 4-for-6 for 32 yards, methodically leading Arizona to seven of its 10 points on the night. What did Kolb do? Well, all he did was continue his trend of under-performing and then, once again, suffering an injury. He started just nine games last season (3-6 record, 1,955 yards, 9 TD, 8 INT, 57.7%), his season hampered by numerous injuries.

First it was turf toe, then it was a concussion. Now it's a rib contusion. While his contusion isn't expected to be a serious injury, it is still not the type of news he, or Arizona's organization/fan base, would have liked to hear.

It's only a preseason exhibition game, yes. But there's no doubt that this will play a huge role in how the position battle turns out once the preseason wraps up in Arizona. In fact, I'm going to go ahead and make a bold prediction: John Skelton wins the starting job for Week 1 of the regular season.

You heard it here first, the 27-year old Kolb, who is under contract until the end of the 2016 season, will start the year on the Cardinal bench. It's almost Skelton's job to lose at this point.

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Arizona's fifth overall pick: 'No QB', says Fitzgerald

The Arizona Cardinals, still in search of a franchise quarterback, are reportedly not interested in taking a quarterback with its fifth overall draft pick this year.

This, of course, is according to All Pro wideout Larry Fitzgerald, who seems to have had quite a bit of influence on the franchise's front office.

Trying to impress Fitzgerald enough for him to want to stay in Arizona after his contract expires at the end of 2011, I would like to think that the Cardinals would do just about anything to keep Larry happy. And why wouldn't they? He's only one of the most dangerous targets coming off the line of scrimmage besides Houston's Andre Johnson.

Fitzgerald's words:

        "I would doubt that we would draft a quarterback that high. I would highly doubt it."

The way he words it hints that they may still draft a quarterback, just not in the very first round.

Personally, I think Fitzgerald is a more reliable source than anyone single person in Arizona's front office at this point. Why they have yet to make a move on Philadelphia's Kevin Kolb tells me that they are leaning towards improving other areas (besides quarterback) early in the draft.

About a month ago an unknown team offered Philadelphia a first-round pick for Kolb, but nothing materialized from that rumor. Fitzgerald expressed interest in Kolb, and said he would welcome Kolb with open arms if Arizona brought him in, but that has also yet to happen.

Despite this, I really think Arizona will take the advice of Fitzgerald if they plan on keeping him beyong 2011. If they are not able to find themselves a franchise quarterback before the season, someone in Arizona's front office needs to be fired. There's no reason why they should enter the season with an underachieving, hot-headed Derek Anderson under center.

For those unsure of Fitzgerald's abilities once he gets a hold of the football:

What's your take? Should they draft a quarterback high (or at all), or acquire their man via free agency or trade?

Source: NFL.com

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What We Learned on Monday: Still No News in Arizona

The second week of the 2010 preseason was wrapped up on Monday night as the Tennessee Titans completely shut down the Arizona Cardinals, 24-10.

Things were looking good on Jeff Fisher's side of the field, with Vince Young, Chris Johnson & Co. looking good early on. Not to mention solid special teams play from everyone.

But, on the other side of the field Arizona's head coach Ken Whisenhunt was left scratching his head. One things is for sure after tonight's matchup: Ken still has no idea who his quarterback will be come week one of the regular season.

Both Matt Leinart--the favorite to win the job--and Derek Anderson put up acceptable statlines, but neither really grabbed anyone's attention. Mistake-free football was played, but there were several relatively easy plays that should've been made, passes that should've been completed. Only they weren't.

Leinart looked shaky under Tennessee's pressure, and although he threw for 105 yards, Anderson missed some open receivers as well.

Let's just say that this is anyone's job for the taking, and we may not know the starter until a few days before the game. In my opinion, I think Leinart, in the end, will be given the starting job based simply on the fact that he's been waiting his turn for four years.

But, with limited receivers to his disposal and lack of accuracy under pressure, Derek Anderson will take over the starting role halfway through the season. The former Pro Bowl quarterback has a stronger throwing arm and has a much easier time shaking off defenders. Plus if I was Whisenhunt I would feel more comfortable having a proven winner (led Cleveland with a 10-6 record in '07; fell just short of playoffs) under center, rather than a career-long benchwarmer.

In reality, it really doesn't look like we learned much after Monday's game, did we? Well, other than the fact that Chris Johnson isn't messing around, and will do everything he can to break 2,000 again this season.

Photo credit: (AP Photo/Frederick Breedon)

Tweet of the Day: Braylon Edwards to Larry Fitzgerald

After doing my daily Twittering (FYI: I only have a twitter account so that I can follow what former and current NFL players and personnel are up to, and to do a little advertising for this blog) I came across an interesting tweet between two receivers.

Edwards, the current New York Jet, posted a funny comment on Arizona Cardinal Larry Fitzgerald's profile. He said, "I heard you been skoolN (exact spelling) @KerryRhodes lol he needs it haha."

All this really means is Larry Fitzgerald is his normal self, you know, burning DBs like it's his job. I just thought it was cool to see a little bit of friendly competition between former teammates (Braylon and Kerry) and opposing players.