Showing posts with label Divisional Round. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Divisional Round. Show all posts

Sunday, January 13, 2013

Playoff Preview: Sunday's Divisional Match-ups

Rough day in regards to picking games yesterday, as the 10-point underdog Ravens upset the No. 1 Broncos in double overtime and San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick literally ran away with a 45-31 victory in the second half against Green Bay.

But today is a new day, and there are still two more games to be played this weekend. Here is a quick preview of both match-ups.

Sunday January 13, 2013

5 Seahawks @ 1 Falcons
1 pm (eastern time), Georgia Dome

The AFC's No. 1 seed has already gone down, and I think later today the NFC's No. 1 seed will fall as well. People don't seem to be giving the Seahawks any credit for its victory last weekend, but the truth is they are probably one of the hottest teams in the NFC right now. A scary combination of defense (No. 1 in the league) and a running game.

Atlanta's offense put up 30 or more points five times this season and has the league's 6th-best passing offense, but a lack of a capable running game may hold back Matt Ryan and his Falcons. Say all you want about this league now being a pass-happy league, but you still need a great defense and a consistent running game to win playoff games and honestly I don't think this defense will be able to limit Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch on the ground.

Seven of Atlanta's 13 wins this season have been by a touchdown or less and, personally, I always found this Falcons team to be overrated. Ryan is 34-6 at home in his career (including a playoff loss to Green Bay), but the postseason has been a different story as he's gone 0-3 with 4 interceptions and a 71.2 rating.
This is a new season, however, and the past postseason games for Ryan do not matter today. With Ryan playing at home, he should have a decent game, but Atlanta's 29th-best running game is likely to be non-existent against Seattle's No. 10 run defense.

On offense, I'm expecting to see rookie Russell Wilson at his finest and we should see a lot of plays coming out of the pistol with some option runs, because Atlanta hasn't seem to be able to stop the opposition on the ground this season. No turnvers from Wilson, and this offense could put up 30-40 points inside Atlanta's dome. Sorry Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta TE), but I think you'll fall to 0-6 in your postseason career today.

Prediction: Seahawks 34, Falcons 24

3 Texans @ 2 Patriots
4:30 pm, Gillette Stadium

Earlier this season, just a couple of weeks ago actually, Tom Brady carved up Houston's 10th-ranked defense for 42 points on the primetime Monday night stage. It was all downhill for Houston after that, as they finished the season 1-2 and backed into the postseason. They had a shot for a couple weeks to clinch home-field advantage and a first round bye, but failed to do so.

A sloppy 19-13 Wild Card victory over Cincinnati last week got Houston to this point, but it's not looking too promising for Matt Schaub's Texans. Of course, the Ravens already proved us all wrong this weekend, so perhaps the Texans can do it again today? I'm playing it safe and going with New England, who always seem to have the highest-scoring offense year-in and year-out.

Going against Brady and head coach Bill Belichick in the postseason is not a smart move. With a 16-6 record in his illustrious postseason career, Brady's level of play elevates once January and February rolls around. In past seasons New England was a pass-oriented team that never really worked at establishing the run, but with Stevan Ridley on the field this season, New England has been a much more rounded offense. On less than 300 rushing attempts, the 23-year old Ridley broke out with 1,263 yards and 12 TDs on the ground.
Arian Foster running for 100+ yards is likely today against New England's defense, but we've seen that a 100-yard rusher isn't going to automatically put a team in great position to beat the Pats. We've seen that all season, as the Patriots have gone 7-3 this season when allowing 100 or more yards on the ground. Nope, Matt Schaub will actually need to make some plays in the passing game (and limit INTs) in order to come away with a win today. A couple of big plays on defense from J.J. Watt or Connor Barwin wouldn't hurt either.

Though he was voted to a Pro Bowl this season, I always thought of Matt Schaub as more of a game-manager in this offense. But if he wants to prove his worth to me today, he'll need to make some big plays. I don't think Houston's defense will be able to limit the damage that Brady leaves, and the Pats will advance to the AFC Championship against Baltimore for the second consecutive season.

Prediction: Patriots 35, Texans 21

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Saturday, January 12, 2013

16 Bold Predictions for NFL Divisional Round Weekend

We've already discussed our predictions for today's two Divisional round games between Baltimore and Denver, and Green Bay and San Francisco. But, we have yet to discuss the possible happenings during the weekend's four games.

Will Ray Rice break 100 yards against Denver's defense? Can J.J. Watt get 2-3 sacks on New England's Tom Brady? How about Colin Kaepernick: can he throw 200 yards and run for another 100 against Green Bay?

Here are a couple of stats or feats that we, the All-Out Blitz, believe will happen throughout today's and tomorrow's four games (sorted by games):

Baltimore at Denver

*Bernard Pierce out-rushes Ray Rice for the second consecutive week, but neither breaks 100 yards for the game.
*Ray Lewis makes 10+ tackles again, but Baltimore's defense fails to force any Denver turnovers.
*Joe Flacco throws for 200 yards and a touchdown, but also throws two picks and is sacked four times in the loss.
*Peyton Manning throws for 300 yards and 3 TDs, while WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker both manage 100+ receiving yards.
*Von Miller records two of Denver's four sacks and Champ Bailey makes his third career postseason interception.
Green Bay at San Francisco

*Green Bay's defense keeps Kaepernick to under 200 passing yards and Frank Gore to under 100 rushing yards for the game.
*Aaron Rodgers spreads the ball around the field, hitting 10 different receivers for over 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns.
*Clay Matthews puts pressure on Kaepernick, recording 2 sacks and just causing an overall ruckus against San Fran's offensive line. In seven career postseason games, Matthews has recorded 24 total tackles and 6.5 sacks.
*Aldon Smith records the only two sacks of Green Bay's Rodgers, and San Fran fails to force any turnovers for just the third time all season (Week 6 against New York and Week 13 against St. Louis).

Seattle at Atlanta

*Matt Ryan throws three interceptions against Seattle's defense, and Atlanta gains under 80 combined rushing yards as a team.
*Both Julio Jones and Roddy White are limited to under 100 yards through the air as TE Tony Gonzalez is Atlanta's leading receiver. Unfortunately, the future Hall of Fame tight end will fall to 0-6 in his postseason career.
*Marshawn Lynch will bring extra Skittles to the game and break out for 150 rushing yards and two TDs for Seattle.
*Russell Wilson plays mistake-free football in the dome, as he hands Atlanta its fourth consecutive playoff loss.
Houston at New England

*Houston's J.J. Watt sacks Tom Brady twice, despite the Texans allowing 400 total yards and 30+ points to New England's offense.
*Arian Foster breaks 100 yards for Houston but Matt Schaub is sacked three times and throws two picks, which New England turns into 14 points.
*Tom Brady throws for 300 yards and 3 TDs against Houston's 10th-ranked scoring defense, improving to 4-1 all-time against the Texans (first meeting in the postseason).

Do you have any bold predictions for this weekend's games? If so, share them here!

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Playoff Preview: Saturday's Divisional Round Match-ups

Last week the All-Out Blitz went 4-0 in our Wild Card picks. Can we improve to 8-0 after this weekend? Here's a look at our picks for today's first two Divisional round match-ups, which we are now just over three hours away from!

Saturday January 12, 2013

4 Ravens @ 1 Broncos
4:30 pm (eastern time), Sports Authority Field at Mile High

Heading into halftime last Sunday against the Colts Baltimore led 10-6, but the offense came out in the second half and took the game over. Joe Flacco led the attack with a spectacular showing (12/23. 282 yards, 2 TDs), which I admit is not something I was expecting to see. I predicted that a Baltimore victory would come through a heavy dose of Ray Rice, but it was actually Rice's backup rookie Bernard Pierce who stole the show against Indy.

Rice ran for just 68 yards on 15 carries while losing two fumbles and almost costing Baltimore at critical times in the game, while Pierce stepped in and ran for 103 yards on just 13 carries as the Ravens managed to easily move the ball up and down the field. Flacco hit Anquan Boldin five times in the second half, for 145 yards and a touchdown.

On defense, Baltimore felt the presence of returning linebacker Ray Lewis as he made 13 tackles and nearly made an interception early in the game. Paul Kruger put pressure on rookie signal caller Andrew Luck for most of the day, sacking him 2.5 times and Baltimore forced two Luck mistakes. The Colts' offense held the ball for nearly 38 of the game's 60 minutes as Luck set a rookie record for pass attempts in a postseason game (54), but were forced to settle for three Adam Vinatieri field goals and never got into the end zone against Baltimore's stout defense.

This week will be a much different story for Baltimore, as they get a match-up with the No. 4 overall defense on the road. Sure, Flacco and company could handle the Colts and move on with a 24-9 first round victory, but now they are forced to travel to the Mile High and face a much better defense. Indy was ranked 21st in overall defense, 21st in pass defense and 29th in run defense. The Broncos are 4th, 3rd and 3rd and somehow get overlooked as a top defense around the league.
Indianapolis didn't exactly have a standout pass rusher on its squad this season (Robert Mathis' 8.0 sacks led the team), but the Broncos have two guys in Von Miller (18.5 sacks this season) and Elvis Dumervil (11.0) who don't waste any time getting after opposing QBs and eating them for lunch. Mathis got to Flacco just once last week, but if I'm Flacco I'm not exactly looking forward to this match-up in Denver.

How can the Ravens pull off a victory today? Mistake-free. If this offense makes just one mistake, they aren't winning this game. Peyton Manning and his No. 2 scoring offense will make Baltimore pay dearly for any mistakes they make on the offensive side of the ball. Going for his 5th career MVP trophy this season (hopefully Adrian Peterson will win it instead), Manning is playing a strong as ever right now and has turned Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker into Pro Bowl-worthy wideouts.

Prediction: Broncos 31, Ravens 14

3 Packers @ 2 Niners
8 pm (eastern time), Candlestick Park

Despite the Vikes not playing with starter Christian Ponder last Saturday night, the Packers' 24-10 victory over Minnesota last Saturday night looked pretty impressive. Quarterback Joe Webb couldn't complete a pass to save his life, and I even think he failed to hit a trash can two feet away from while attempting to throw his Gatorade cup away on the sidelines (no joke). Completing just 11 of 30 attempts, Minnesota's offense once again consisted of: Adrian Peterson running a heavy dose.

After allowing 409 rushing yards to Peterson in the previous two match-ups between these two teams this season, Green Bay surrendered just 99 yards on 22 carries. So anytime you hold AP to under 5.0 yards per carry, you're gonna have a good day. The only time Minnesota got into the end zone was on a 50-yard pass from Webb to Michael Jenkins with under four minutes to play in the game, so you can almost call it garbage yards and points. The game was long over by that time.

Aaron Rodgers (23/33, 274 yards, 1 TD, 104.9 rating) played near-flawless football against Minny's 15th-ranked defense, but tonight will be a bit of a different story. Going up against San Fran's No. 2 defense will be a huge challenge for Rodgers and this offense. But with a banged up Justin Smith and after surrendering 34+ points to New England and Seattle late in the season, it's been proven that it's possible for a high-scoring offense to put up points on the Niners.

San Francisco defeated Green Bay 30-22 in the first game of the season, but there's a huge difference between then and now. First off, Alex Smith was the Niners' quarterback back then while now second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick is under center for San Fran and he has zero postseason experience. Second off, the Packers failed to run the ball effectively (14 attempts for 45 yards). Rodgers was the team's leading rusher in that game, running the ball 5 times for 27 yards while Cedric Benson ran 9 times for 18 yards.
This week will be a whole new story, as the Packers have appeared to have found its guy in the backfield. Second-year back DuJuan Harris ran the ball 34 times for 157 yards and 2 TDs this season, but over the last two weeks he's been the guy for Green Bay, running the ball a total of 117 yards on 31 carries with a touchdown. Harris and Alex Green have been splitting carries and make for a formidable one-two punch alongside Rodgers in the backfield.

Now I wouldn't take Green Bay's backfield over San Francisco's Frank Gore, but the fact the Rodgers may finally have a couple of capable runners coming out of his backfield to accompany his high-flying passing offense is a scary thought. Putting pressure on SF signal caller Kaepernick will be key for the Pack's defense, and I'm not so sure I trust this Niner offense with Kaepernick. I'd take Rodgers and his superb postseason track record (plus experience) ove Kaepernick and the Niners defense any day. Don't forget that Green Bay lost a game to Seattle that they should have won (replacement officials gave Seattle a game-winning TD that should've been ruled an interception at the end of the game), meaning Green Bay would have ended up being a higher seed than San Fran.

San Francisco is favored by 3 points, but I'll take the underdog Packers in this one.

Prediction: Packers 24, 49ers 14

A little later this afternoon I will be posting an article with all of our BOLD predictions for all four games this weekend! Plus, look out for more predictions for tomorrow's games as well.

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Monday, January 23, 2012

Ranking the Season's 10 Postseason Games

Now that we have figured out the two representatives for Super Bowl 46 and I have given my recap of the Conference Championship games, we must wait two weeks to see the action unfold and crown a winner.

So, to pass the time why not give a brief recap of each of the 10 postseason games by ranking them, No. 10 being the least exciting to watch, and No. 1 being the most exciting. Here's how I have ranked them, feel free to add your opinion in the comments section:

10. AFC Divisional Round: Patriots 45, Broncos 10

Anyone and everyone outside of the New England area had become a Broncos/Tebow fan for the day as the Broncos went in to Foxboro, MA looking to stun Patriot nation. After Tebow had torn up the No. 1 pass defense in Pittsburgh the week before, it looked as if Timmy would have another solid day against one of the league's worst pass defenses. Instead, Tom Brady and his Patriot offense blew Denver out of the water before they even had a chance.

What did it make for? A record-setting day for Brady (5 first-half TD passes) and a boring second half. Although Tebow did play his heart out and it was later found out that he had been playing a majority of the second half with a bruised lung. Either way, a 35-point blowout doesn't exactly make for an exciting playoff game.

9. NFC Divisional Round: Giants 24, Falcons 2

Coming in to the game, Atlanta's signal caller Matt "Matty Ice" Ryan had been one of the league's hottest quarterbacks. But he was forced to travel to New York and take on one of the league's hottest front 7 units led by the returning Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. The end result is a lone safety being Atlanta's only points as the offense was held scoreless.

The Falcons made history by becoming the first team in NFL history to score just two points in a playoff game. Not exactly the history they were looking to make, and Ryan has fallen to 0-3 in the playoffs with just three TDs and four interceptions.
8. AFC Wild Card Round: Texans 31, Bengals 10

This was one of the matchups I was most looking forward to in the Wild Card round, I believe. It was the first time in playoff history that two rookie quarterbacks were squaring off against each other. One of the said rookie quarterbacks (Houston's T.J. Yates) had a great day, throwing for 159 yards and a TD, while the other (Cincinnati's Andy Dalton) threw three interceptions and was sacked four times.

Houston's top five defense took the game over, basically ending the game at the end of the first half with a 29-yard INT returned for a TD by rookie J.J. Watt. They held Cincinnati scoreless in the second half on their way to a 21-point, blowout win in the franchise's first-ever playoff appearance. Cincinnati is now 1-4 in the playoffs since 1990.

7. AFC Divisional Round: Ravens 20, Texans 13

Unfortunately Yates' good fortune only lasted a week, as his inexperience in big games caught up to him against the Baltimore Ravens' top-tier defense in the Divisional round of the playoffs. Yates managed to lead the Texans' on three first half scoring drives, putting up 13 points, but they were held scoreless in the second half.

Houston's Arian Foster became the first running back to gain 100 yards on Baltimore's defense in a playoff game, but his 132 yards and one TD didn't make up for Yates' three interceptions and Jacoby Jones' fumble on a punt return. Houston's turnovers gave easy scoring chances to Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense, making it an easy win for the Ravens despite just a seven-point victory.

6. NFC Conference Championship: Giants 20, 49ers 17 (OT)

Miscues littered this game as well, but mainly on San Francisco's part. Like I said in the previous post, WR and return man Kyle Williams, in just his second season, would love to forget this game. However, his two miscues on punt returns isn't the only thing San Fran messed up on. Eli Manning did fumble once, and they Niners were unable to take advantage and recover the ball, and they also dropped two easy INTs because of collisions between defensive backs.

Eli Manning played a tough game, but the Niners' failure to capitalize when they needed to most is probably the big storyline in this one. But the fact that Manning was able to overcome six sacks and drive the team down the field to take the lead halfway through the fourth quarter shows me his guts. Coughlin put the ball in his hands and gave him a career-high 58 attempts, and he did what he had to do to win: capitalize on turnovers and SF misfortunes.
5. NFC Wild Card Round: Saints 45, Lions 28

This is what fans love to see (not sure why, I love seeing smashmouth running games and hard-hitting defenses): shootouts between gun-slinging quarterbacks such as Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford. Passing yards were galore in this Wild Card game, and the final score of this one doesn't tell the whole story. There was plenty of controversy between the fumble that Detroit's defense had picked up and run back for a touchdown. But because the officials blew the play dead they were unable to return it. They retained possession, but had to start from where they recovered. They didn't score.

It had the potential to be a 7- or 14-point swing, but either way Detroit wasn't able to capitalize on that turnover and Brees took the game over. New Orleans' running game had actually taken over the final quarter, scoring two of NO's three fourth quarter TDs and putting the Saints ahead for good. Lots of scoring in this one, despite Detroit's tough defense. Fans love seeing 30, 40-plus games and the Lions put up a good fight with the young Matt Stafford at the helm.

4. AFC Conference Championship: Patriots 23, Ravens 20

Again, Baltimore had two shots at the end but were unable to pull ahead (Evans' dropped pass in the end zone) or tie it and send the game to overtime (Cundiff's missed 32-yard FG with 11 seconds left). Baltimore's defense made Tom Brady uncomfortable for quite a bit of the game, forcing two errant passes that turned in to turnovers. Flacco out-passed Brady, strangely enough, for 306 yards and a couple of TD passes, and put his team in position to win at the end of the game.

We can't be disappointed with the way the passing game for Baltimore went, he did look better than the previous week against Houston. But what does disappoint me was that Ray Rice was a non-factor. He was given his fair share of carries, with 21, but he ran for just 67 yards (3.2 YPC avg.) and made no impact in the passing game with one catch for 11 yards. Had he been more of a factor there's no doubt Baltimore would have had an easier time winning this one.
3. AFC Wild Card Round: Broncos 29, Steelers 23 (OT)

Denver owned the second quarter of this game, putting Pittsburgh's aging and banged up defense to shame with 20 points on their way to a 20-6 halftime lead. Pittsburgh, dealing with in-game injuries to D-lineman Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel, safety Ryan Clark missed the game as well, failed to get any pressure on Tim Tebow. The result? A career-high 316 passing yards and the game-winning touchdown toss to WR Demaryius Thomas from 80 yards out on the first play in overtime.

But this game is ranked so high up because of the gutsy play from Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. He fell to 10-4 in the playoffs, but injured ankle-and all Roethlisberger went up against the odds of a miraculous comeback and led the Steelers' offense to three second-half scoring drives (17 points) as they came back and tied the game up at 23 to send it to overtime. The stunning first-play score in overtime just adds to the greatness and the ups and downs of this remarkably played game by both quarterbacks.

2. NFC Divisional Round: Giants 37, Packers 20

A 17-point victory makes top two? I know, I know, seems kinda strange. But the fact that Manning once again was able to knock off the heavily-favored 15-1 Green Bay Packers on the road in the blissful Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field against Aaron Rodgers is quite fascinating. I, of course, called this upset happening, unlike most fans and Green Bay "bandwagoners" (trust me, I know plenty of them).

I feel as though I've mentioned how much Eli has impressed me far too often on this blog, but it's true that I feel he has proved himself to be a better postseason quarterback than his older brother. The Giants put up a great effort against the Packers in this one with 17 fourth quarter points and limiting Green Bay's offense to 20 points.
1. NFC Divisional Round: 49ers 36, Saints 32

There's no question which game has been the best of the postseason. I don't think another game comes close to San Francisco's shocker over Drew Brees, who finds himself sitting at 1-2 in the playoffs since his Super Bowl victory in February of 2010. In head coach Jim Harbaugh's first year as a professional football head coach, he turned the lowly Niners in to Super Bowl contenders with a nasty defense and a draft bust-turned gun-slinger.

It was Alex Smith's first career playoff game in six seasons and he managed to out-play the four-time All Pro and Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees. In the final four minutes of play there were four lead changes. Smith rallied his troops to re-take the lead with two minutes left with a 28-yard TD run, but less than a minute left Brees threw a 66-yard TD bomb to TE Jimmy Graham and successfully converted a two-point conversion. What does Smith do? He simply orchestrates a seven-play, 85 yard TD drive in a minute and a half which is capped with a 14-yard strike to his TE Vernon Davis.

This one had it all. Lots of points, lots of yards, big plays and excitement. I was literally jumping up and down at the end when Smith hit Davis in the end zone with :09 to play, and I'm not even a fan of either team. An emotional Davis/coach Harbaugh interaction on the sideline after the play was the icing on the cake.

Photo credit
Matt Ryan: Chris Trotman/Getty Images
Darren Sproles: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Von Miller: Justin Edmonds/Getty Images
Vernon Davis: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Divisional Round Preview: Sunday's Games

We're halfway there as two more teams were eliminated Saturday night. San Francisco lived on after knocking off the third-seeded Saints with a late game-winning touchdown from Alex Smith to Vernon Davis while the Pats blew out the Tim Tebow-led Broncos.

A full recap and review of Saturday's Divisional round games will be coming soon, but for now I will bring you my preview of Sunday afternoon's games as we find out who the other two teams will be playing next Sunday.

I went 2-0 in today's games, let's see if I can go 2-0 on Sunday and improve my playoff record to 6-2.

#3 Houston at #2 Baltimore--Sunday January 15, 2012 1 PM ET

Both of these two teams are so similar in style of play: hard-nose, smashmouth defense who can put up points on the board and be the difference in a game and an explosive running game. With a third-string rookie quarterback under center for Houston, I can imagine that Houston will run the ball early and often.

If I'm Baltimore's John Harbaugh, I'm not so sure if I can fully trust Joe Flacco with the ball in his hands considering how streaky and inconsistent he has been this season. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron needs to find as many ways as possible to get the ball to running back Ray Rice.

Flacco plays better when he isn't put under pressure and giving Rice his carries gives Baltimore a much better chance at moving the ball efficiently and getting points on the board. Fun for for you: in Baltimore's four losses this season Rice averaged just 9.0 carries per game without any rushing TDs (had one through the air). Why it has taken this long for Harbaugh/Cameron to realize this? I have no clue, but I'm sure they've picked up on it by now.
Arian Foster and Ben Tate, who is making his homecoming back to MD (grew up in Salisbury, MD), combined for the second-best rushing attack this season and will be game-changers in this matchup. Both defenses can stop the run, however, and rookies J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed, and Brian Cushing and Jonathan Joseph for Houston are sure to have big days against Flacco if Baltimore can't protect him adequately.

Bottom line: Houston has a great shot at upsetting the No. 2 seed on the road (Baltimore won meeting earlier this season, 29-14, at M&T Bank Stadium on Oct. 16), but I think Ray Rice will be too much, and Terrell Suggs will have a big day against the young T.J. Yates.

My Prediction: Ravens 28, Texans 17
Whatifsports.com's Prediction: Ravens 23, Texans 19

#4 New York at #1 Green Bay--Sunday January 15, 2012 4:30 PM ET

I called the San Francisco game, which may count as an upset for some people, but this will be the bigger upset and I can sense it happening tomorrow.

New York Giants' Eli Manning is coming off a league-leading 25 interception season last year, but has thrown for a career-high 4,933 yards with 29 TDs. He's played well all season on his way to his second career Pro Bowl selection in eight years. He, along with breakout wideout Victor Cruz, is the reason New York's offense has been so efficient this season.

Between the fact that I have discovered the formula to beating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers and the level that New York's defense (particularly the front 7) have been playing as of late, I think we have a game.
New York was one of the worst running games in the league this season, but in the previous six games the Giants have surpasses 100 yards on the ground and have controlled ball games with a perfect balance between pounding the ball with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw and airing it out with Manning, Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. They really opened up the middle of the field last week against Atlanta, and they certainly have the ability to do so against Green Bay's 32nd-ranked pass defense tomorrow.

All Manning needs to do is protect the football, meaning no turnovers, and the NY defense needs to put as much pressure on Rodgers (the MVP favorite) as possible. How exactly did the Chiefs beat the Pack? Control the tempo and keep Rodgers off the field. Kansas City ran the ball 39 times for 139 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay, possessing the ball for 36 of the 60 minutes of play.

Now that's how you keep Rodgers off the field, and that's how you beat Green Bay. Tamba Hali pressured Rodgers all day long (3 sacks on the day), and I expect NY's Tuck, Umenyoria and Pierre-Paul have a field day against Rodgers. Don't forget: NY nearly upended the Pack in Week 13, losing just 38-35.

My Prediction: Giants 35, Packers 31
Whatifsports.com's Prediction: Packers 28, Giants 23

Photo credit
Ray Rice: Rob Carr/Getty Images
Justin Tuck: Al Bello/Getty Images

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Divisional Round Preview: Saturday's Games

Last weekend I went 2-0 in my picks on Saturday (Houston and New Orleans), but 0-2 on Sunday (Atlanta and Pittsburgh) to break even at 2-2 for the Wild Card round. I didn't pick any huge upsets and thought I was picking the safe teams. Boy was I wrong.

In the opening round all four home teams captured victories, but this weekend I expect things to be a bit different. Here's a preview of Saturday afternoon and evening's two match-ups according to my football knowledge.

#3 Saints at #2 49ers--Saturday January 14, 2012 4:30 PM ET

The New Orleans Saints defeated Detroit with 45 points thanks to a flawless passing attack (Brees: 466 yards, 3 second half TDs) and an equal rushing attack (167 yards, 3 TDs) to surpass a 49-year old playoff record for most total yards in a game, with 626.

On defense, they allowed 5,000 yard passer Matthew Stafford and Pro Bowl wideout Calvin "Megatron" Johnson to throw all day long, totaling 380 yards and 3 TDs through the air (211 yards/2 TD to Johnson), but Detroit ran the ball for just 32 yards on 10 attempts (3.2 YPC).

This week will be much different in several different areas, however. New Orleans' second-ranked offense will be matched up against San Francisco's second-ranked defense. A match set in heaven, if you will. Brees had no difficulty against Detroit's 22nd-ranked pass defense, a unit that managed to surrender 24.2 points/game in the regular season, but will have to go up against the swarming SF defense. In the regular season the Niners 14.3 points/game (second in league) and ranked first–along with Green Bay–in turnovers with 38.
The No. 1 rank in defending the run belongs to San Francisco, as well, giving up just 1,236 yards and 3 TDs throughout the season. This will make Brees' offense one-dimensional and put even more emphasis on the passing game. Brees hasn't had much problem with that this season, but if the Niners force a couple of turnovers at the hands of Brees then the Niners have a real shot at knocking off New Orleans.

Now, Alex Smith is no Matt Stafford and the 49ers don't have targets equal to Detroit's Johnson, but they do have a top tier rushing attack with Frank Gore and were 10-0 this season when running for 100 or more yards, and 6-2 when Gore gets in to the end zone. What, then, must the Niners do on offense to win this game? Run early and often. The Saints allowed 1,738 yards and 5.0 YPC this season, and Gore is back in Pro Bowl shape.

My Prediction: Niners 28, Saints 24
Whatifsports.com's Prediction: Niners 17, Saints 16

#6 Broncos at #1 Patriots--Saturday January 14, 2012 8:00 PM ET

Many are still in shock that Tim Tebow was able to pull off the impossible yet again, and in such dramatic fashion coming off a three-game losing streak to end the regular season. Tebow

Denver's passing attack was 31st in the league this season, yet Tebow set a career-high with 316 yards passing against Pittsburgh's No. 1 passing defense–it was Tebow's second career 300-yard game. Pittsburgh's pass rush struggled mightily against Denver's strong offensive line, as well. This makes me worry for New England, who ranks 14th in turnovers and second-to-last in yards.

But what scares me with New England's offense, is that Tom Brady and Co. doesn't seem to be affected when they turn the ball over. On just three occasions have the Pats turned the ball over multiple times, and they actually managed to win one of those games, despite four turnovers.
Even with a flawless game from Tebow against Pittsburgh, Denver managed just 29 points. Yes, that's quite a few points, but playing against New England's offense (32.1 points per game in regular season, third-most in league) puts up quite the challenge for Denver.

Luckily for Denver, they do have one thing going for them: New England had a rather weak schedule this season as they played just two teams with winning records (New York Giants and Steelers) and lost both games. That and, not to mention, the fact that Tebow always seems to get everything together towards the end of games (five 4th-quarter comebackers and six game-winning drives this season).

As much as fans and experts have jumped on the Tebow bandwagon this season, I may have to jump off it this week. New England's offense is much more potent than that of Pittsburgh's, and I don't expect the Pats to start off quite as slowly as the Roethlisberger-led Steelers last Sunday.

My Prediction: Patriots 38, Broncos 28
Whatifsports.com's Prediction: Broncos 31, Patriots 24

Photo credit
Niners D: Jay Drowns/Getty Images
Tom Brady: Elsa/Getty Images