Showing posts with label AFC Playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AFC Playoffs. Show all posts

Saturday, January 5, 2013

Wild Card Preview: Cincinnati vs. Houston Round 2

It's game day! The postseason starts today and the All-Out Blitz is just now getting around to deciding who will win each game. This year we'll be doing it a little bit different and previewing each game with separate posts.

First things first, and that's today's 4:30 pm (eastern time) matchup between the No. 6 seeded Bengals (10-6) and the No. 3 seeded Texans (12-4). Facing each other in the first round of the playoffs for the second consecutive season, will the Bengals get revenge? Or will the Texans win the rematch as well?

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
4:30 PM, Reliant Stadium
Favorite: Houston by 5

Cincinnati is riding a three-game win streak against Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, while going 7-1 in the second half of the season to make the playoffs following a 3-5 start to the season. Houston has struggled recently, dropping three of its final four games, but all three losses came to playoff teams (Patriots, Vikings, Colts).

Despite being just a win away from the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs and blowing its chance at clinching home-field advantage, Houston has a great shot at winning this if they can produce on offense. Getting the ball to running back Arian Foster early and often, while keeping the ball out of Matt Schaub's hands, can do wonders for this Houston offense today.
Offensive 2012 Stats

Cincinnati: 12th-ranked scoring, 17th-ranked passing, 18th-ranked rushing
Houston: 8th-ranked scoring, 11th-ranked passing, 8th-ranked rushing

Defensive 2012 Stats

Cincinnati: 8th-ranked scoring, 7th-ranked passing, 12th-ranked rushing
Houston: 10th-ranked scoring, 16th-ranked passing, 7th-ranked rushing

The numbers on both offense and defense are very close between these two, but I think the difference will be the running game. Cincy has run for just 61 yards on the ground in the past two weeks and they will be up against a top 10 rushing defense. There have just been four games this season in which Houston was held to under 100 yards on the ground and just two games in which Houston's defense didn't force a turnover.

With second-year quarterback Andy Dalton (16 interceptions, 46 sacks in 2012) under center against this Houston defense, I believe J.J. Watt & Co. will attack the Cincinnati offense enough to limit Dalton's effectiveness. Defense and a solid running game win championships, and that's how Houston will knock off the Bengals in the Wild Card round for the second consecutive season.

Things to Remember While Watching

*Houston beat Cincinnati 31-10 in the first round of the AFC playoffs last year at Reliant Stadium.
*This is Matt Schaub's first postseason start of his 9-year career (didn't play in last January's game due to injury, then-rookie T.J. Yates made the start for Houston).
*This is just the third postseason game in franchise history for the Houston Texans. Being in the league since 2002, last season was Houston's first appearance and they went 1-1.
*Cincinnati has not won a playoff game since the 1990-91 season. Postseason appearances came in 2011, 2009 and 2005, but were all one-and-done seasons when it came time for the playoffs. Cincy's last playoff victory? A 41-14 victory over the Houston Oilers on January 6, 1991. Exactly 21 years from tomorrow.
*The overall regular season series is currently tied 3-3.
Key Players for Each Team

Cincinnati

*BenJarvus Green-Ellis: Sure, the Bengals have won consecutive games to end the season despite the nonexistent running game. Green-Ellis is listed as probably for the game after missing last week, and he will need to be 100% healthy, and effective, in order to take the pressure off the young Dalton. You know the Texans will be bringing the heat on Dalton, and finishing with anything less than 80 yards on the ground could prove catastrophic for Cincy's offense.

*Geno Atkins: The monstrous defensive tackle has made his second consecutive Pro Bowl team in his three-year career. And it was well-deserved. But he will need another great game against Houston's O-line to give the Bengals a shot. The pass-rushing d-tackle will be making Schaub's game hell, but a role in stopping the run is just as important today against Houston.

*Vontaze Burfict: As you can tell, defense is more important for the Bengals in this game. If the offense underachieves again this week, as they have been, the defense will need to bring its A-game to limit Houston's smash-mouth offensive attack. Undrafted rookie Burfict has led the team in tackles this season and has a shot at making headlines by keeping Foster and the rest of Houston's backs to under 100 yards. Doing so may be the only way Cincinnati has a chance at winning.

Houston

*Matt Schaub: I'm certain that Schaub will be throwing less than 30 passes in this game, but he's listed as a key player because of what he can't do in this game in order to win. Turnovers. Schaub simply needs to protect the ball and limit mistakes. Conservative passing attack is what I'd expect from Rick Dennison's offense.

*Arian Foster: It's all about the running game vs. front seven in today's match-up. Last season Foster came up big in his two postseason games, rushing for a combined 285 yards and 3 TDs against Cincinnati and Baltimore. Coming just two TDs shy of breaking his career-high this season, Foster has been running as strong as ever this season and I would expect 120 yards and a TD from him in today's game.

*J.J. Watt: What Watt does early in this game could set the tone for the Texans defensively, and play a huge role on how Dalton fares in the rest of the game. If he can get to Dalton early and rattle him, it's game over for the Cincinnati offense.


As you can probably tell, I've been favoring the Texans in this match-up. Though Houston has backed into the postseason and fallen to the No. 3 seed, these Texans are an overall superior team to the Bengals. A lack of a rushing attack recently will come back to bite the Bengals in this game.

Final Prediction: Texans 31, Bengals 17

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Monday, January 16, 2012

AFC Championship is Anyone's Game at this Point

The AFC North division champion Baltimore Ravens are heading to Foxboro, Mass. this Sunday to face the No. 1 seeded New England Patriots for a chance to play in the Super Bowl in Indianapolis in February.

Baltimore's stingy defense helped them overcome the Houston Texans' hard-hitting defense and its five sacks of quarterback Joe Flacco, who was also hit on six additional plays and had seven passes defensed against Houston's fourth-ranked overall defense.

Flacco has been a bit of a disappointment this season, as he has been very inconsistent throughout the season, sometimes not even bringing his A game against teams with losing records such as Jacksonville and Seattle. A pair of rookie Texans–DE J.J. Watt and LB Brooks Reed–each recorded 2.5 sacks and combined for 15 solo tackles, including four TFLs (tackles for a loss) against Baltimore's passing attack.

Like I had said in my Preview for this game, the Ravens would win but they would need Ray Rice to get plenty of touches in order for them to do so. Well, he did. He carried the ball 21 times for 60 yards and caught four passes for 20 yards. Clearly he received his fair share of touches, but he wasn't very effective with the ball in his hands (2.9 Y/A, 5.0 Y/R).
I ended up only being half right about the outcome of the game: I picked the winner, but Baltimore's 20-13 victory came because of a dominating defensive effort against rookie signal caller T.J. Yates.

Overall Yates looked closer to a veteran quarterback than a rookie at times. His three interceptions were devastating and led to either BAL points or, as his last one sailed into veteran safety Ed Reed's hands, sealed the victory. Baltimore dropped numerous other possible INT's, which were simple rookie mistakes on Yates' part. But T.J. made a couple of throws that only a handful of QBs are normally able to execute.

This brings me to my next point. If you watched the first AFC matchup of the weekend then I'm sure you noticed how on point Tom Brady was with all of his throws. He was on fire, going 26/34 for 363 yards and 6 TDs with one interception. His five first half TD passes set the postseason record for most in a single half, and his six total tied the postseason record for a single game.

Denver's pass rush struggled to even lay a hand on him (two QB hits, two PDs, 0 sacks) and Brady had no trouble finding tight end Rob Gronkowski in the end zone on three different occasions.

Baltimore's pass rush is far more dangerous than that of Denver, but that doesn't mean Brady is going to turn the ball over. Flacco got his chances at putting the ball in the end zone thanks to the four turnovers his defense forced on Houston. New England, however, doesn't turn the ball over. In fact, they did that just 17 times this entire season (third-least in the league).
Say what you want about New England's porous pass defense, but they have thrived all season on forcing turnovers, much like Baltimore's D, and Flacco's offense is far more vulnerable than New England when it comes to losing the football.

Here's how you know your team is in trouble: Ed Reed made an appearance on The Blitz on SiriusXM's NFL Radio and he made it clear that the Ravens needed to step up as a team this Sunday against the Patriots. He hinted towards the idea that Joe Flacco looked a little rattled by Houston's defense, and that the offense needed to make improvements if they expected to win against New England.


Before this weekend's slate of games I had New England over Denver, Baltimore over Houston, and then Baltimore defeating the Patriots in the Championship game for a trip to the Super Bowl. But after watching New England destroy the Broncos defense with 45 points Saturday night, I may have to re-think my pick.

That's why I will be waiting until the very end of the week to make my two picks. Not only is the AFC game tough to call, but both the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers lit up the scoreboards against their respective Divisional round opponents. With my 6-2 postseason record on the line, I will be taking every second I have to re-evaluate these two match-ups.

Who do you have representing each Conference in Super Bowl XLVI?

Photo credit
Joe Flacco: Rob Carr/Getty Images
Brandon Spikes: Al Bello/Getty Images

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Divisional Round Preview: Sunday's Games

We're halfway there as two more teams were eliminated Saturday night. San Francisco lived on after knocking off the third-seeded Saints with a late game-winning touchdown from Alex Smith to Vernon Davis while the Pats blew out the Tim Tebow-led Broncos.

A full recap and review of Saturday's Divisional round games will be coming soon, but for now I will bring you my preview of Sunday afternoon's games as we find out who the other two teams will be playing next Sunday.

I went 2-0 in today's games, let's see if I can go 2-0 on Sunday and improve my playoff record to 6-2.

#3 Houston at #2 Baltimore--Sunday January 15, 2012 1 PM ET

Both of these two teams are so similar in style of play: hard-nose, smashmouth defense who can put up points on the board and be the difference in a game and an explosive running game. With a third-string rookie quarterback under center for Houston, I can imagine that Houston will run the ball early and often.

If I'm Baltimore's John Harbaugh, I'm not so sure if I can fully trust Joe Flacco with the ball in his hands considering how streaky and inconsistent he has been this season. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron needs to find as many ways as possible to get the ball to running back Ray Rice.

Flacco plays better when he isn't put under pressure and giving Rice his carries gives Baltimore a much better chance at moving the ball efficiently and getting points on the board. Fun for for you: in Baltimore's four losses this season Rice averaged just 9.0 carries per game without any rushing TDs (had one through the air). Why it has taken this long for Harbaugh/Cameron to realize this? I have no clue, but I'm sure they've picked up on it by now.
Arian Foster and Ben Tate, who is making his homecoming back to MD (grew up in Salisbury, MD), combined for the second-best rushing attack this season and will be game-changers in this matchup. Both defenses can stop the run, however, and rookies J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed, and Brian Cushing and Jonathan Joseph for Houston are sure to have big days against Flacco if Baltimore can't protect him adequately.

Bottom line: Houston has a great shot at upsetting the No. 2 seed on the road (Baltimore won meeting earlier this season, 29-14, at M&T Bank Stadium on Oct. 16), but I think Ray Rice will be too much, and Terrell Suggs will have a big day against the young T.J. Yates.

My Prediction: Ravens 28, Texans 17
Whatifsports.com's Prediction: Ravens 23, Texans 19

#4 New York at #1 Green Bay--Sunday January 15, 2012 4:30 PM ET

I called the San Francisco game, which may count as an upset for some people, but this will be the bigger upset and I can sense it happening tomorrow.

New York Giants' Eli Manning is coming off a league-leading 25 interception season last year, but has thrown for a career-high 4,933 yards with 29 TDs. He's played well all season on his way to his second career Pro Bowl selection in eight years. He, along with breakout wideout Victor Cruz, is the reason New York's offense has been so efficient this season.

Between the fact that I have discovered the formula to beating Aaron Rodgers and the Packers and the level that New York's defense (particularly the front 7) have been playing as of late, I think we have a game.
New York was one of the worst running games in the league this season, but in the previous six games the Giants have surpasses 100 yards on the ground and have controlled ball games with a perfect balance between pounding the ball with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw and airing it out with Manning, Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. They really opened up the middle of the field last week against Atlanta, and they certainly have the ability to do so against Green Bay's 32nd-ranked pass defense tomorrow.

All Manning needs to do is protect the football, meaning no turnovers, and the NY defense needs to put as much pressure on Rodgers (the MVP favorite) as possible. How exactly did the Chiefs beat the Pack? Control the tempo and keep Rodgers off the field. Kansas City ran the ball 39 times for 139 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay, possessing the ball for 36 of the 60 minutes of play.

Now that's how you keep Rodgers off the field, and that's how you beat Green Bay. Tamba Hali pressured Rodgers all day long (3 sacks on the day), and I expect NY's Tuck, Umenyoria and Pierre-Paul have a field day against Rodgers. Don't forget: NY nearly upended the Pack in Week 13, losing just 38-35.

My Prediction: Giants 35, Packers 31
Whatifsports.com's Prediction: Packers 28, Giants 23

Photo credit
Ray Rice: Rob Carr/Getty Images
Justin Tuck: Al Bello/Getty Images

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Divisional Round Preview: Saturday's Games

Last weekend I went 2-0 in my picks on Saturday (Houston and New Orleans), but 0-2 on Sunday (Atlanta and Pittsburgh) to break even at 2-2 for the Wild Card round. I didn't pick any huge upsets and thought I was picking the safe teams. Boy was I wrong.

In the opening round all four home teams captured victories, but this weekend I expect things to be a bit different. Here's a preview of Saturday afternoon and evening's two match-ups according to my football knowledge.

#3 Saints at #2 49ers--Saturday January 14, 2012 4:30 PM ET

The New Orleans Saints defeated Detroit with 45 points thanks to a flawless passing attack (Brees: 466 yards, 3 second half TDs) and an equal rushing attack (167 yards, 3 TDs) to surpass a 49-year old playoff record for most total yards in a game, with 626.

On defense, they allowed 5,000 yard passer Matthew Stafford and Pro Bowl wideout Calvin "Megatron" Johnson to throw all day long, totaling 380 yards and 3 TDs through the air (211 yards/2 TD to Johnson), but Detroit ran the ball for just 32 yards on 10 attempts (3.2 YPC).

This week will be much different in several different areas, however. New Orleans' second-ranked offense will be matched up against San Francisco's second-ranked defense. A match set in heaven, if you will. Brees had no difficulty against Detroit's 22nd-ranked pass defense, a unit that managed to surrender 24.2 points/game in the regular season, but will have to go up against the swarming SF defense. In the regular season the Niners 14.3 points/game (second in league) and ranked first–along with Green Bay–in turnovers with 38.
The No. 1 rank in defending the run belongs to San Francisco, as well, giving up just 1,236 yards and 3 TDs throughout the season. This will make Brees' offense one-dimensional and put even more emphasis on the passing game. Brees hasn't had much problem with that this season, but if the Niners force a couple of turnovers at the hands of Brees then the Niners have a real shot at knocking off New Orleans.

Now, Alex Smith is no Matt Stafford and the 49ers don't have targets equal to Detroit's Johnson, but they do have a top tier rushing attack with Frank Gore and were 10-0 this season when running for 100 or more yards, and 6-2 when Gore gets in to the end zone. What, then, must the Niners do on offense to win this game? Run early and often. The Saints allowed 1,738 yards and 5.0 YPC this season, and Gore is back in Pro Bowl shape.

My Prediction: Niners 28, Saints 24
Whatifsports.com's Prediction: Niners 17, Saints 16

#6 Broncos at #1 Patriots--Saturday January 14, 2012 8:00 PM ET

Many are still in shock that Tim Tebow was able to pull off the impossible yet again, and in such dramatic fashion coming off a three-game losing streak to end the regular season. Tebow

Denver's passing attack was 31st in the league this season, yet Tebow set a career-high with 316 yards passing against Pittsburgh's No. 1 passing defense–it was Tebow's second career 300-yard game. Pittsburgh's pass rush struggled mightily against Denver's strong offensive line, as well. This makes me worry for New England, who ranks 14th in turnovers and second-to-last in yards.

But what scares me with New England's offense, is that Tom Brady and Co. doesn't seem to be affected when they turn the ball over. On just three occasions have the Pats turned the ball over multiple times, and they actually managed to win one of those games, despite four turnovers.
Even with a flawless game from Tebow against Pittsburgh, Denver managed just 29 points. Yes, that's quite a few points, but playing against New England's offense (32.1 points per game in regular season, third-most in league) puts up quite the challenge for Denver.

Luckily for Denver, they do have one thing going for them: New England had a rather weak schedule this season as they played just two teams with winning records (New York Giants and Steelers) and lost both games. That and, not to mention, the fact that Tebow always seems to get everything together towards the end of games (five 4th-quarter comebackers and six game-winning drives this season).

As much as fans and experts have jumped on the Tebow bandwagon this season, I may have to jump off it this week. New England's offense is much more potent than that of Pittsburgh's, and I don't expect the Pats to start off quite as slowly as the Roethlisberger-led Steelers last Sunday.

My Prediction: Patriots 38, Broncos 28
Whatifsports.com's Prediction: Broncos 31, Patriots 24

Photo credit
Niners D: Jay Drowns/Getty Images
Tom Brady: Elsa/Getty Images

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Bengals/Texans: Battle of the Rookie QBs

In just under an hour the 2011-12 NFL playoffs will kick-off with a very noteworthy match-up in Houston between the Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans.

In 10 seasons, this is the Houston Texans' first-ever playoff appearance and the Bengals are seeking its first postseason win since 1990. Something's gotta give, right? The last time a playoff game was played in Houston Joe Montana was in a Kansas City Chief uniform as he defeated the Houston Oilers 28-20 on January 16, 1994.

This match-up also features a showdown between two rookie signal callers for the first time in playoff history, pretty impressive huh?
Both Houston's T.J. Yates and Cincy's Andy Dalton have turned heads with their leadership as rookies, and according to teammates neither have shown weaknesses in allowing the atmosphere of the playoff get to them. This week during practice, anyways. Come game time could be a whole different story.

The play of the quarterbacks, in my opinion, will not be the deciding factor in this game however. Rather, it will be the running game (and defense) that makes the difference. Houston has the league's second-best rushing attack, in terms of yardage at least, and Arian Foster is certain to get a huge workload today against Cincy's 10th-ranked run defense.

Houston is top five in overall (4th), pass (3rd) and run (4th) defense and will make for a rough day for Cedric Benson (1,067 yards, 6 TDs, 3.9 Y/A in regular season) and the Bengals' 19th-ranked running game. Without an efficient running attack there will be a lot of pressure on Dalton, and I think Houston's linebacking corps, led by Brian Cushing, will be too much for the young guy.

Houston, in its first playoff game in franchise history, will get the W today and live to play another week.

Photo credit
Cushing: Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Bengals, Texans and Broncos Back into AFC Playoffs

Last Sunday three of the six AFC playoff teams lost its matchup. Two of those hadn't even clinched a spot yet, meaning they received help from other teams to get in to the second season.

Houston and Cincinnati, throwing it down one-on-one this weekend (Saturday January 7, 2012 at 4:30 PM ET in Houston), are both currently being led by rookie signal callers. Cincinnati's Andy Dalton was one of two rookie QBs to throw for 3,000 or more yards this season–first time in history that has happened.

As for Houston, rookie T.J. Yates will be making his sixth career start this Saturday, and it's clear that Houston has relied heavily on the run. Yates has thrown for just 949 yards and three touchdowns on 134 pass attempts, but has protected the ball well (just three INTs). But after leaving last week's game against the Titans with an apparent shoulder injury, his status for Saturday is uncertain.

It's been said he's likely to play, but even if he does I have a feeling he wont be 100%. There's no doubt these two rookie quarterbacks will be under the microscope when they go head-to-head in Houston's first-ever playoff game. Cincinnati will be looking to win its first playoff game since 1990.

Both teams have struggled as of late. Cincinnati fell, 24-16, to division rival Baltimore in Week 17 and has gone 2-3 in the last five games. Houston is currently riding a three-game skid, finishing the season 10-6. There's no doubt that this matchup, however, may be one of the most intriguing of the weekend, with Cincy sporting a 5-3 road record and Houston boasting a 5-3 record at home. Houston plays great defense and has the second-best running game in the league.

Backing in or not, these teams have set the stage for a classic AFC playoff battle on Saturday afternoon.
Denver was the third AFC team to "back into the playoffs," clinching the AFC West division despite a 7-3 loss to Kansas City. With the help of San Diego (38-26 win over Oakland) Denver captured the title with an 8-8 record–Oakland and San Diego went 8-8 as well, but Denver holds the tiebreaker.

Tim Tebow, after starting his second professional season with a 7-1 record as starter and five 4th-qtr comebacks, has played three consecutive forgettable games as Denver nearly lost its playoff chances.

Over the three-game span, Tebow, who received much of the credit for Denver's win streak despite great support from the defense and running game, completed 41% of his passes for just one passing touchdown (three on ground) and four interceptions. His defense allowed 40 points on two different occasions (41 vs. NE, 40 vs. Buf), but at the same time he managed just 13.3 points on average in those games.

The truth of the matter in Denver is that it appears as though defenses have cracked the code in stopping the offense designed around Tebow, and losing three straight by such deficits is no way to enter the playoffs, especially against a team of Pittsburgh's caliber.

They do have a couple things going for them against Pittsburgh, however. Not only will they get to host the game at Mile High, but they also have the benefit of playing a banged up Steeler squad. Ben Roethlisberger is likely to start, but there's no way his ankle will be 100%, plus running back Rashard Mendenhall and safety Ryan Clark have both been ruled out of the game.
Denver's No. 1 rushing attack will need to show up to play in order to take the pressure off the struggling Tebow. Though he only got the ball in to the end zone five times in 2011 (four rushing, one receiving), running back Willis McGahee is finally healthy and ready to go. He reached the 1,000-yard mark this season for the first time since 2007, his first season in Baltimore.

Denver is only 4-3 this season in games that the one-time Pro Bowler rushes for over 100 yards, but they are 3-0 in games that he runs for a touchdown. Meaning one thing: get him the ball in red zone and goal-line situations. In Week's 15 and 16 McGahee ran the ball just 22 combined times. I find it rather silly to try and rely so much on Tebow when you have a guy of McGahee's caliber sitting in the backfield waiting to get his hands on the ball.

If Denver wants a shot to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers it would be smart of them to give McGahee the ball early and often. Other than that, Denver will be a one-and-done this postseason.

Photo credit
T.J. Yates: Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images
Willis McGahee: Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Houston Makes History, Poised for Playoff Run

The Houston Texans made franchise history this past Sunday in a couple of different categories.

Not only did rookie quarterback T.J. Yates–in his second career professional start–lead Houston on a last-minute, game-winning scoring drive to come from behind and defeat the Cincinnati Bengals 20-19, but he also happened to lead the 10-3 Texans to its first-ever playoff appearance.

The victory, and Tennessee's 22-17 loss to New Orleans shortly afterwards, allowed Yates' Texans to clinch the AFC South division for the first time since entering the league as an expansion team in 2002.

After what seemed to be a long 13 weeks, constantly battling numerous injuries to key players, the 2011 Texans have finally reached a milestone the previous nine Texans teams failed to do. And the scary part about it may in fact be that they could make a deep run in the postseason.

Without All Pro outside linebacker Mario Williams, Houston's leading sacker over the last four seasons, who has been out of the lineup since being placed on the injured reserve on October 10 (pectoral), the Texans' defense has yet to lose a step.
As a defensive unit, Houston is currently ranked No. 1 in total yardage allowed (3,574), fourth in scoring (16.0 PPG), third in passing yards (2,385), t-third in passing TDs (13), fourth in rushing yards (1,189), t-third in rushing TDs (6) and t-fifth in turnovers forced (25).

That's top six in each of the eight statistical categories that I believe are most vital in having a successful defensive unit. One that would be durable enough, with overall talent across the board, to make a run at a championship. We've seen teams with great defenses win championships without a very strong quarterback before, and I think this squad is capable of repeating history.

Just think: '85 Bears, '00 Ravens, '07 Giants. They all had quarterbacks that played average football–at best–all season, but thanks to strong support from the running game and history-making defenses (Da Bears and Ravens) were able to hoist the Lombardi trophy at the end of the season.

'85 McMahon: 56.9%, 2,392 yards, 15 TD, 11 INT, 82.6 QBR in 11 starts
'00 Dilfer: 59.3%, 1,502 yards, 12 TD, 11 INT, 76.6 QBR in eight starts
'07 Manning: 56.1%, 3,336 yards, 23 TD, 20 INT, 73.9 QBR in 16 starts

The difference between these teams and other teams, not just the Super Bowl championship, was the fact that they relied more heavily on the running game than the arm of their passer. Not to mention, of course, a great defense that helped pull off some improbable wins in some cases (*cough, cough* Giants over Pats in 2007 Super Bowl *cough, cough*).

What has impressed me so far in Yates' first two starts is not that he has thrown spectacular passes in tight coverage, because he hasn't really had to do much of that quite yet. Rather, it's that he's been protecting the football and limited the turnovers to a minimal. Other than his two lost fumbles and one interception over the last two weeks, Yates has shown he has the leadership to rally the team around him.
Just three turnovers in two games for a guy that was practically thrown overboard in to a pond of sharks, being a rookie quarterback with minimal experience and all, is pretty impressive I'd say.

If Yates can continue to protect the ball and simply manage the game we could be seeing more record-breaking performances from this team in the coming weeks. I have yet to even mention that he threw 44 passes in this past weekend's victory–Houston's franchise-record seventh straight.

Arian Foster, Ben Tate and Derrick Ward lead one of the NFL's most potent rushing attacks. Foster's 957 yards and eight TDs leaves him on the verge of his second consecutive 1,000-yard, double-digit TD season–he led the league in both categories last season as a second-year pro.

Speaking of second-year pro, backup Ben Tate, playing his first complete season after missing all of last year due to injury, has added 820 yards and three TDs on the ground. Tate, carrying the ball 146 times this season, has put up a yards per carry average of 5.6, which is the best in the league.

So even without Pro Bowl quarterback Matt Schaub (2,479 yards, 15 TD, 6 INT, 96.8 QBR in 10 starts), backup quarterback Matt Leinart (57 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT on 13 pass attempts), All Pro wide receiver Andre Johnson (31 Rec., 471 yards, 2 TD in six starts) on offense, this team has the ability to drive down the field and put points up on the board via the run game.

And on defense? Well, it looks like they have been doing just fine without Williams' 192 tackles, 53 sacks and 11 forced fumbles since his '06 rookie season. Linebackers Connor Barwin (career-high 9.5 sacks) and rookie Brooks Reed (6.0 sacks) have stepped it up in replace of Williams. With 36, Houston currently has the sixth-most QB sacks in the league and continue to turn the ball over often.

Houston has the right formula, and is easily the team to beat in the AFC right now. It will be a joy for any football follower to finally get to witness the Texans in the playoffs this year.

Photo credit
T.J. Yates: Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Brooks Reed: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images