Why Kurt Warner's Canton Enshrinement May Come Down to Just Two Games

As I'm re-watching A Football Life: Kurt Warner, an hour long NFL Network documentary on the career of Super Bowl champion quarterback Kurt Warner, I've decided to open the debate a couple of years early: is Kurt Warner Hall of Fame-bound?

Trust me, I've done a little research and this may be one of the toughest calls the Hall voters will be forced to make in recent history.

In his 12 professional seasons with the St. Louis Rams, New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals, Warner put up impressive numbers while receiving the league Most Valuable Player award twice and the Super Bowl MVP award following his one Super Bowl victory in 1999 while in St. Louis.

If it came down to his back-story, and how he got into the league, he'd be a first ballot Hall of Famer without a doubt. But unfortunately that's not how the voters make the decision to induct a player into the Hall in Canton, Ohio.

The former grocery bagger and Arena Football League standout went undrafted in 1994. The Green Bay Packers invited him to training camp that summer, but due to a crowded roster in terms of QBs (Brett Favre, Mark Brunell and Ty Detmer), Warner didn't even last until the start of the regular season.

It was following his release from the Packers that the Iowa-native resorted to stocking shelves in a grocery store and playing in the Arena Football League. While playing for the Iowa Barnstormers from 1995 until 1997, Warner threw for 183 touchdowns and over 10,000 yards (the AFL is a much more pass-oriented league). His jersey is retired and he was inducted into the AFL Hall of Fame in August of 2011.

Three productive seasons in the Arena League was enough to get a tryout with the Rams in 1997, and newly-hired head coach Dick Vermeil saw potential in Warner. Prior to his second season with the Rams, starter Trent Green went down with a season-ending knee injury during a preseason match-up. This paved the way for Warner to step in and lead the Rams to an NFC West division title and Super Bowl appearance.

Going 13-3 during the regular season and throwing for 4,300+ yards and 41 touchdowns, Warner won his first of two career Associated Press MVP awards and was the key component of the Rams' "Greatest Show on Turf" offense that featured Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk and Warner's targets Isaac Bruce (future HOF wideout) and Torry Holt.

Receiving a first round bye in the '99 postseason, Warner's Rams got a Divisional round match-up with Minnesota and put up 49 points in the dome. A home Conference Championship win over the Bucs put the league's top scoring offense in the Super Bowl and Warner was the primary reason for this.

A late scoring drive for Warner's Rams against Tennessee in the Super Bowl was enough for the Rams to shock the world and come away with the franchise's first-ever Vince Lombardi trophy. Warner passed for a Super Bowl record 414 yards and two TDs, capturing the Super Bowl MVP award.

Two seasons later he found himself back in the same position––the Super Bowl. Falling a couple hundred yards shy of 5,000 yards (and 36 TDs) in the regular season, the Rams were once again the league's highest-scoring offense. Two straight home postseason victories over Green Bay and Philadelphia put the Rams up against the up-and-rising New England Patriots, led by a quarterback in a similar position as Warner from two seasons ago––Tom Brady.

Thanks to a game-winning scoring drive from Brady and the Pats, Warner fell just shy of a second championship, losing 20-17.

The next two seasons Warner battled numerous injuries and was basically forced out of St. Louis due to the up-and-coming signal caller Marc Bulger (put up 18-4 record during his first two seasons in STL, 2002-03).

It could be argued that Warner's legacy in St. Louis may be tarnished by the unproductive, injury-riddled final two seasons. During that time Warner went winless in his seven starts over those two seasons and the 32-year old was forced out by a younger guy who outperformed Kurt.

Two days after being released by the Rams in the off-season leading into the 2004 season, Warner signed a two-year deal with the Giants. His Giant career was short-lived, as he merely was there to help shape the rookie Eli Manning. In his nine starts that season, Warner was 5-4 and posted an 86.5 QB rating. It was thought that this was the end of the then-33-year old's career.

However, he was given one last chance by the Arizona Cardinals, signing a one-year, $4 million contract with them prior to 2005. It appeared as though he'd be doing exactly what he did in New York––mentoring a younger quarterback to take his spot. He did get a majority of the starts in his first season as a Cardinal, but the drafting of Matt Leinart in 2006 was a sign of what's to come for the Cardinals.

Warner started the season under center, but ended up starting just five games in '06 (1-5 record) and 11 games in '07 (5-6). It wasn't until the realization that Leinart wasn't likely to fully develop as the Cardinals starter that Warner received his one final shot at another championship: the improbable run of the 2008 Cardinals.

With the help from Pro Bowl wideouts Larry Fitzgerald (96 catches, 1,431 yards, 12 TD) and Anquan Boldin (89 catches, 1,038 yards, 11 TD), the Cardinal offense put up 30+ points on seven different occasions throughout the regular season, winning the NFC West with a 9-7 record. A huge underdog, much like he was throughout his 12-year career, Warner led the Cardinals to three consecutive playoff wins (30-24 over Atlanta, 33-13 over Carolina, 32-25 over Philadelphia) and a Super Bowl berth. The third of his career.

But, as the title of this article suggests, a heart-wrenching 27-23 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLVIII leaves Warner's career with a huge question mark.

Warner's career regular season record of 67-49 (9-4 in the postseason) is superb, but his career numbers leave him on the fence in terms of Hall of Fame-worthy:

116 starts, 65.5 comp %, 32,344 passing yards (29th all-time), 208 touchdowns (t-28th all-time), 128 interceptions, 93.7 QB rating, nine 4th-qtr comebacks, 14 game-winning drives.

It's tough to put a guy in the Hall of Fame based solely on just a handful of excellent seasons. The four-time Pro Bowler played just three complete seasons and had five seasons in which he posted a losing record as the team's starter.

His postseason numbers are a different story, and will certainly get the attention of voters:

13 starts, 9-4 record, 66.5 comp %, 3,952 passing yards (304.0/game), 31 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 102.8 QB rating; six games with 300+ yards, nine multi-TD games, four games with rating over 100.

The two MVP awards and one Vince Lombardi trophy don't appear enough to put him in as a lock at this point in time. However, had he been able to pull off a Super Bowl victory in 2001 and 2008, I think it'd be enough to put him in.

It's also tough not to put a three-time Super Bowl champ in the Hall. This is exactly why the Warner/HOF debate is so tragic, because it may come down to just two games. Games in which he played greatly (365 passing yards and 2 combined TDs vs. New England; 377 yards and 3 TDs vs. Pittsburgh), but was unable to come out on top due to simply being outplayed. The Rams and Cards were outscored by a combined seven points in those two big games in '01 and '08.

There's still plenty of time to debate this, but looking at everything in perspective, Warner may end up needing some generosity coming from voters to find himself inducted into Canton.

What do the readers think: Hall of Fame, or no Hall of Fame?

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Vikings, Cards Top List of Surprise Teams

Every NFL season, a team seems to come out of nowhere and shake our faith in what we think we know about how they will perform. The 2012 season has proved no different. A few teams have already exceeded expectations and find themselves ranked at or near the top of their respective divisions. Here are some of my favorite surprise teams this year:

Minnesota Vikings, NFC North

Before the season began, the Vikings were not even in the discussion when pundits talked about the NFC North. The Green Bay Packers were crowned top dog with the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions nipping at their heels. The Vikings were barely an afterthought. But now through 5 games, they lead the division, tied with the Bears at 4-1.

 Keys to success:

• Christian Ponder is emerging as an efficient passer who recognizes coverages and protects the ball. He's averaging a 95.5 passer rating and has only thrown two interceptions, both in Sunday's game against the Titans. In that game, he showed poise and maturity by quickly recovering and completing 11 of 12 passes in the second half.
• Offense -- The Vikings have rolled out a dynamic offense highlighted by wide receiver Percy Harvin and shored up by running back Adrian Peterson and even tight end Kyle Rudolph.
• Defense -- Perhaps the most improved aspect of the Vikings game is the defense. First year defensive coordinator Alan Williams seems to have them back on track and improving every week. Safeties Jamarca Sanford and Harrison Smith look strong in the secondary while defensive end Jared Allen heads up an impressive front four who are among the best at rushing teh passer and stopping the run.

Arizona Cardinals, NFC West

The talk coming out of Arizona before the season started centered around who the quarterback would be. With neither John Skelton nor Kevin Kolb distinguishing themselves during preseason, it's no wonder the announcement naming Skelton the starter came only one week before the regular season began. With instability at the quarterback position, the Cardinals weren't given much chance for success. But then they started the season 4-0 and suddenly looked like a team to be reckoned with in the NFC West.

Keys to success:

• Defense -- The Cardinals defense will be key. They will be tasked with keeping games close like they did their first four games. Even with the great wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals offense will not be a juggernaut. And the running game has taken a hit with Beanie Wells, and now Ryan Williams out for the season with injuries. With players like linebackers Sam Acho and Daryl Washington, the Cardinals defense will need to continue to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So far, they are 5^th in points allowed (15.6) and have only allowed 6 touchdowns through 5 games, the fewest in the league. And with one of the best young cornerbacks in the game in Patrick Peterson, the Cardinals have an opportunity to be legitimate contenders.

Honorable Mention: St Louis Rams, NFC West

Let's face it – in the NFL, as in other sports, there are certain teams that other teams count as an automatic “W.” Rightly or wrongly, consciously or subconsciously, some teams are just not taken as a viable threat. The Rams found themselves as one of 'those' teams last year, finishing 2-14 for the season. Teams should not take them for granted this year, however. Through 5 games, they have already topped last season's record and stand at 3-2. Though a 3-2 record may not be worthy of calling them a true surprise team, they are worthy of keeping an eye on. Head coach Jeff Fisher has brought a new attitude which is evidenced in the Rams' inspired play, especially on defense. Adding Cortland Finnegan at cornerback, along with Janoris Jenkins, adds a feisty, hard-nosed edge to the secondary. Defensive ends Robert Quinn and Chris Long highlight a formidable pass attack no team can take for granted. How the Rams deal with injuries, particularly to the No. 1 receiver Danny Amendola, will determine whether their progress continues upward or not.

Obviously, there is still a lot of football left to play. These teams could actually tank from here on out making their great starts just a distant memory. Each team has their own particular flaws to overcome, but for now, they are at least in the discussion of possible playoff contenders.

Rams Host Kolb, Fitzgerald on Thursday Night

Don't you just love the new Thursday Night Football schedule? Football games every Thursday night, couldn't be better.

Tonight, beginning in just a few minutes on NFL Network to be exact, the 2-2 St. Louis Rams host one of the three remaining undefeated teams in the 4-0 Arizona Cardinals.

With the perfect record on the line, Kevin Kolb and Arizona's 15th-ranked overall offense will look to continue its hot streak. Thus far this season, however, its been the Cardinal defense that has kept the squad in games and allowed them to upset teams such as the Patriots and Eagles.

The Rams are 2-0 at home this season, defeating the Redskins 31-28 (thanks in part to a huge mistake of WR Josh Morgan) and the Seahawks 19-13 this past weekend.

But, the Cardinals defense has yet to allow any more than 21 points to a team and has a perfect 1-0 record on the road, entering a tough crowd in New England and coming away with a Week 2 victory. The No. 3 overall defense (21st against pass, 16th against run) will be a tough match for quarterback Sam Bradford and the Rams' 24th-ranked overall offense.

It'll certainly be an interesting matchup with Larry Fitzgerald going up against St. Louis' secondary, led by feisty cornerback Cortland Finnegan, who have allowed just 2 passing touchdowns in four games.

I wont be calling for an upset tonight, however, as Kevin Kolb has been playing great football and with Fitzgerald having two consecutive games with a receiving touchdown, I expect another big game from Arizona's passing offense.

My prediction: Arizona improves to 5-0 with a 31-14 victory over St. Louis.

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Andrew Luck Takes Control of Offense in Pro Debut

One day after the best debut of Week 1 of the preseason, possibly even one of the best rookie quarterback debuts we've seen in years, there seems to be more talk about the release of Miami Dolphins wideout Chad Johnson.

It's a shame, really. Sure, the Johnson arrest (head-butted his wife, Evelyn) came as a bit of a surprise, therefore leading to the surprise release of the veteran wideout. But why is it that we are more obsessed with discussing his future, rather than the future of the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft: Andrew Luck.

Yesterday afternoon was the long-awaited debut of former Stanford Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck, who is taking over the reins from Colt legend Peyton Manning–now a Denver Bronco.

His first ever pass? A 63-yard touchdown completion to running back Donald Brown. It was only a little dump-off to Brown, who did the rest of the work as he followed his blocking and took it to the house. Luck simply stood in there long enough for Brown to bounce off his block and took off down the field after the catch.

The rest of the game for Luck went just as smoothly, as he played a majority of the first half and left the game with a 21-3 lead over the St. Louis Rams. Luck's stat-line at the end: 10/16, 188 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT.

Luck orchestrated three near-perfect scoring drives on four total possessions, one being just the one play for 63 yards. The other two–7 plays, 53 yards and 13 plays, 80 yards–took a little bit more time off the game clock.

Throughout Indy's 13 play, 80-yard scoring drive that was capped off with a Delonte Carter one-yard TD run, Luck was in the no-huddle offense and lined his offense up in the shotgun for nine of those plays. Eight of the 10 completions went for 10+ yards (63, 10, 12, 5, 23, 9, 12, 12, 10, 32).

Luck displayed poise and had complete control over his offense. Obviously this is only the first preseason game of 2012, but if his performance against St. Louis' first team defense is any indication, Luck could have a solid rookie season.

His predecessor, Peyton, threw for a TD on his first professional pass with Indianapolis as well, so could Luck just be following in his footsteps?

No. 2 overall pick Robert Griffin III had a solid debut for the Washington Redskins this past weekend in a 7-6 victory over the Buffalo Bills, too. Griffin played a lot less than Luck did, going 4/6 for 70 yards and a touchdown pass to Pierre Garcon from 20 yards out.

It's a much smaller sample size in Washington, but either way both young guns impressed in their first couple snaps as professional players. I'm thinking there's still plenty from where that came from.

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RGIII is Washington-bound: Skins give up everything-but-the-kitchen-sink for STL's No. 2 pick

Brace yourself, the following information may put you in to a state of shock. If you're a Washington Redskins fan, you may even want to look away from the screen or possibly even grab your nearest trash can and prepare to puke out your sorrows.

The Washington Redskins have moved up four spots (No. 6 overall to No. 2 overall) in this year's NFL draft, exchanging first round picks with the St. Louis Rams. But, that is not all. Included in this trade package, which Washington will utilize to select Baylor's Heisman winning quarterback Robert Griffin III, is the Skins' second round pick in this year's draft as well as their 2013 and 2014 first round picks.

Now, let that thought sink in for a few moments. That means, that not only will the Redskins owner Dan Snyder–well known around the league for overpaying veteran players and signing questionable characters–have to pay a boatload of money to RGIII as the second overall pick, but they will also lose key picks that would have been used to acquire Griffin some weapons.

I have lost a tad bit more respect for the Redskins front office, to tell you the truth. They are, I'll admit it, in dire need of a franchise quarterback, which they should get from Griffin. But to give up all of that for a guy who isn't a sure thing? I think they would have been better off without drafting a quarterback this year at all and simply adding offensive weapons in this year's draft.

On the other side of things, however, I have to say I'm very impressed with the newly-hired Rams General Manager Les Snead. Just weeks after being hired for the position, Snead goes out and lands key draft picks to help bolster the offense under Sam Bradford, and the defense, for head coach Jeff Fisher. San Francisco will obviously be the favorite in the West, but I wouldn't sleep on this St. Louis team, Fisher knows what he's doing.

The fact that Snyder gave up so much to land the coveted No. 2 pick just puts that much more pressure on Griffin to perform right away. I'm a little worried that head coach Mike Shanahan will get a little too involved with the development in RGIII, which could put a damper on RGIII's performance. Without a dominant No. 1 receiver (unless Snyder signs a wideout via free agency) and a 25th-ranked rushing attack, I don't see Griffin making an immediate impact under center.

This move was supposed to put Washington a step ahead for 2012, which is still possible, but in hindsight it will only put them a step behind in future seasons (2013, 2014).

In order for Washington to compete with the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys this year, we will need to see much more production and durability from the 21st-ranked defense.

Photo credit

RGIII: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

NFL playoff system "broken" but can't be fixed

The NFC West division has been a weak link for years when it comes to the National Football League's playoff seeding procedure, but it hit a new low this season.

After defeating a hapless St. Louis Rams offense last night, led by rookie quarterback Sam Bradford, the Seattle Seahawks became the first team to win a division with a sub-.500 record (7-9). Recently several NFL employees have brought to attention the weak spot in the procedure for figuring out each conference's playoff seeds.

Because of the format (No. 1 thru No. 4 division winners, No. 5 and No. 6 the two Wild Card teams), the Seahawks get to host the 11-5 New Orleans Saints, since they are in a stronger division and didn't win the NFC South. Depending on how the sixth seeded Green Bay Packers do in the first two rounds of the playoffs, Seattle has a slight chance at hosting not just the first week, but the conference championship game as well if they make it that far.

Another thing that was brought to my attention is the fact that two 10-6 NFC teams (New York and Tampa Bay) are both sitting at home watching the playoffs while the Seahawks are not. Funny thing is that both the Giants and Bucs crushed Seattle earlier this season--New York won 41-7 during week nine and Tampa won 38-15 just last week. In the history of the league this is the first year that two 10-6 teams in the same conference missed the postseason.

It's clear that Seattle, who didn't even get to start Matt Hasselbeck in last night's game yet still managed to pull out a victory, doesn't deserve a playoff spot after finishing with a point differential of -97 and going 2-6 on the road.

But lets not get ahead of ourselves. This isn't a fixable system like the NCAA's.

Employees have brought up the idea of changing the format to just picking the top six teams in each conference (record-wise). But what exactly does that fix? I mean yes it does allow the top six teams to make it in to the postseason, but it also completely takes away the whole point of having divisions.

If this change happens sometime in the near future, I am not going to be a happy camper. There would be no reason to have division match-ups and it would take away from the rivalries which have been created through having four divisions in each conference.

If they want to fix the system, you might as well fix the entire format of the league. And that just seems like far too much trouble to go through.

I hope you hear me, Roger Goodell. Do not fix the playoff system. That may temporarily fix the problem, but it will only lead to new problems.

Photo credit: AP Photo/John Froschauer

Niners Fire Head Coach Singletary

Last night's firing of Niners' head coach Mike Singletary should tell us one thing: If you don't deliver results in the NFL, you wont be sticking around long.

Singletary, the former Chicago Bears linebacker who was inducted into the Hall of Fame as a player in 1998, worked as the 49ers assistant coach from 2005-2008 after a short stint (2003-04) as Baltimore's assistant. Once San Francisco fired head coach Mike Nolan (18-37 in four seasons, never finished better than third in division) halfway through the '08 season, Singletary took over as interim coach.

After going 5-4, and finishing in second in the NFC West at the end of the '08 regular season, Singletary was named head coach.

In his only full season in 2009, Singletary's Niners, who were said to be on the rise after being replenished with younger players, finished the season 8-8 and again placed second in the division. San Francisco were crowned division favorites by plenty of analysts and writers this off-season, but his job appeared to be up for grabs after a slow start, and finish.

Just last night, after San Fran was eliminated from playoff contention with a 25-17 loss to St. Louis and a heated argument with quarterback Troy Smith (who was benched mid-game by Singletary) on the sidelines, owner and team president Jed York fired Singletary with just one week in the season remaining.

Defensive line coach Jim Tomsula was named the team's interim coach for the final week of the season against the Arizona Cardinals.

Why York decided to go through with the firing now instead of waiting one more week until the end of the season is beyond me, but the fact is that it happened and that Tomsula has a shot at impressing his boss against the Cards.

Photo Credit

Mike Singletary: AP Photo/Jeff Roberson