Week 7: NFL Divisional Matchups - Part II

Analyzing the Week 7 divisional matchups - Part II. Take a look here to see Part I.

AFC EAST

Jets (3-3) at Patriots (3-3): Sunday October 21, 4:25pm EST CBS

The AFC East has a 4-way tie for first with each team, Dolphins, Patriots, Bills and Jets, all at 3-3 (notwithstanding tiebreakers). Even though the Jets had some crucial injuries – shutdown corner Darrelle Revis and veteran wide receiver Santonio Holmes, both out for the season – they still find themselves in the hunt for the division lead. And in spite of a somewhat shaky start with the receiving corps of Jeremy Kerley and Stephen Hill, both now seem to be settling into their respective roles. Along with receiver Chaz Schilens, all three will need to take advantage of the Patriots injury-depleted secondary. Since the Patriots have been good at stopping the run, expect running back Shonn Greene's production to be minimal, forcing quarterback Mark Sanchez and his receivers to exploit the Pats' rookie safeties. The Pats will also have to contend with any sub packages using backup quarterback Tim Tebow.

Tom Brady heads the Patriots high-powered offense and they lead the league in average total yards per game (445) and points per game (31.3). The usually pass-happy Patriots have also added a very effective run game this year. Perhaps the Jets biggest challenge though, will be counteracting the Pats hurry-up, no huddle offense. The Pats have successfully used it in keeping defenses guessing and off-balance, and most of all, exhausted. To keep the game close, the Jets need to contain wide receiver Wes Welker and the always dangerous tight end tandem of Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. Expect to see safeties Yeremiah Bell and LaRon Landry helping corners Kyle Wilson and Antonio Cromartie cover the tight ends. The Patriots, though, will use this game to re-establish their supremacy in the AFC East.

Prediction: Jets 19 Patriots 41

AFC NORTH

Steelers (2-3) at Bengals (3-3): Sunday October 21, 8:20pm EST NBC

If any team has shown us the folly of making preseason predictions, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers. Currently sitting at 2-3 and 3^rd in the division, the Steelers will undoubtedly take this opportunity to turn their season around. But it will be no easy task as they are 0-3 on the road with all three losses coming after leading in the 4^th quarter. Another factor making their task difficult is the injuries they've suffered to key personnel, especially on defense and their failure in jumpstarting a viable running game. Star running back Rashard Mendenhall has only played in one full game due to injury and backups Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer, who have also suffered injuries, have not taken up the slack. With the Bengals ranking 2^nd in sacks with 20, Big Ben's skill of evading defenders and extending the play will be tested. But if it's a case of an irresistible force meeting an immovable object, my money's on the immovable object, Big Ben.

The Bengals greatest offensive asset is 2^nd year wide receiver A.J. Green. The Dalton-Green connection has contributed to their averaging 282 passing yards per game, good enough for 8^th in the league. However, quarterback Andy Dalton has been vulnerable when pressured, throwing 8 interceptions when blitz pressure is applied. Can the Steelers defensive line keep enough pressure on Dalton to disrupt his flow and force miscues? Both teams are struggling with the run. The Bengals are 21^st averaging 99 yards per game; while the Steelers rank 31^st averaging just 74. The game will be decided by each quarterback's ability to connect with their respective receivers: Dalton with Green and Andrew Hawkins and Big Ben with Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown and Emanuel Sanders. Because of the injuries to key Steelers, and the fact that those who are returning this week may not be playing to full potential, here's my one upset pick of the 6 division matchups this week (if picking the 2^nd place team over the 3^rd place one can even be called an upset).

Prediction: Steelers 17 Bengals 23

Update: QB Ben Roethlisberger left Thursday's practice early after sustaining an ankle injury. We will have to stay tuned to see if this development will impact Sunday's game.

NFC NORTH

Lions (2-3) at Bears (4-1):  Monday October 19, 8:30pm EST on ESPN

To say that the Detroit Lions have gotten off to a slow start is an understatement. Quarterback Matthew Stafford, who threw for over 5,000 yards last year, has only 4 touchdowns to 5 interceptions through 5 games. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson, who led the league in touchdown receptions for WRs last year with 16, only has one so far. They face a stout Chicago defense that is ranked No. 1 in defending the run, only allowing an average of 65 rushing yards per game. The Bears are also No. 1 in points allowed per game with 14.2. The Lions' running game has gotten off to a slow start, though back Mikel Leshoure, who missed the first two games of the season, has given the Lions some spark at the position. Because of their stalled running game, the Lions will rely heavily on the pass.

Bears' running back Matt Forte's big play potential keeps defenses on their heels and opens up the passing game. The Lions will have to keep pressure on quarterback Jay Cutler to disrupt his connection with deep-threat wide receiver Brandon Marshall. The key to the game will be how well the Bears' defense can contain the Lions' receiving arsenal of Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Titus Young, and tight ends Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler. With the Lions trying to get back in the hunt in the AFC North, this will be a crucial game for both teams.

Prediction: Lions 21 Bears 23

Note: statistics quoted (exc. pts per game) are rounded off for clarity

Photo credit
Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski: Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images North America

Best to Ever Play the Position: Tony Gonzalez Deserves More Respect

In the wake of Super Bowl week, all the talk has been centered around New England's tight end Rob Gronkowski. Will he play, or will he sit? After spraining his ankle after an awkward tackle against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship, Gronk has been seen in a walking boot earlier this week.

When seen at yesterday's Media Day, the second-year pro had taken off the walking boot. But after missing practice again today (only two practice days remain before Super Sunday) the question still lingers.

Personally I don't see him missing the game. No way he will allow himself to miss what will be the biggest game/day of his life...especially considering what he means to this New England offense.

Gronk, 22, has blossomed in to perhaps the league's most well-known tight end within about a season. He broke on to the football scene with 546 yards and 10 TDs as a rookie in 2010, but he followed that up with a record-setting performance in 16 games this season: 90 receptions, 1,327 yards and 17 TDs. The single greatest season ever put together by a tight end. He led the league in receiving TDs and set TE records for most yards and most TDs.

The sudden stardom of the bruising 6'6'' and 265 pound end has led to the expression "Gronk'd." His powerful spike, in celebration of a TD, has been known as a Gronkowski trademark by many, and he even has t-shirts and songs in dedication to his athletic ability and on-field success–mainly in the New England area.

This has made for a sad, sad day in Kansas City and Atlanta. The two cities that the 12-time Pro Bowl tight end Tony Gonzalez has played in. Still a Falcon, the 35 going-on-36-year old veteran has lost his touch. He has put up 15 hard-working and well-fought seasons, starting 222 career games and missing just one start since 1998 (he didn't start any games in his rookie season, 1997).

Gonzalez has already punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio and he doesn't even think he's going to retire for another couple of seasons. Yet new faces such as Gronk, New Orleans' second-year pro Jimmy Graham, New England's Aaron Hernandez and San Francisco's Vernon Davis have stolen the spotlight away from the blue collar Gonzo.

The worst part, in my opinion, is that I don't think it even really bothers Gonzalez at all. Young kids have seemed to have chosen Gronk as their hero, rather than Gonzalez. I'm not trying to take anything away from Gronk and Graham, or anyone else, because they have played hard and deserve some credit as well. But I'm disappointed that fans have seemingly overlooked perhaps one of the league's greatest receiving tight end of all time.

The NFL has recently put together an official magazine (NFL the Magazine) to which I have subscribed to. The most recent issue–just the second one made, actually–had an article in it written by Lisa Altobelli that I think everyone who calls themself an NFL fan needs to read.

Of course I was well aware of what Gonzo has done for the league before I read the article, but the article reiterates his greatness and reassures fans that his loss of the spotlight hasn't phased him one bit. Just like every other season, Gonzalez prepares the same way and goes about his business. According to the article, as well, his teammates have started calling him "Low-key Tony G," which is very fitting for the calm-minded Tony.

What has he done over his decade-and-a-half of play? Simple, he has racked up 1,149 receptions, 13,338 yards and 95 TDs. His reception total is second all-time to the great Jerry Rice, his yardage total 11th all-time and his TD total is 9th all-time (he is six away from passing Steve Largent at No. 6). All three categories rank No. 1 among every other tight end to ever play the game.

What I like most about him, however, is his humbleness and the fact that he focuses more on his blocking techniques than his catching ability because obviously run blocking is No. 1 priority for all tight ends. Their second responsibility is catching passes. He's first one in the facility and often the last one out, according to many of his teammates as well.

What I believe is the reason for his lack of respect among NFL fans, and some experts too, is that he's never really been in those big games. In fact, he's never been fortunate to win a playoff game. In five tries, Gonzo is 0-5 in postseason play. But that's not his fault!

Gonzo hasn't exactly been the brightest star in those postseason games (16 Rec., 157 yards, 2 TDs, 9.8 YPR), but the tight end isn't going to be the game-changer in a big playoff game. He's never really been on an exceptional team and he's actually never really had an exceptional quarterback throwing him passes.

There's Matt Ryan in Atlanta right now, but he's only been there for three seasons. In Kansas City 1997-2008 Gonzo's best quarterback was probably Trent Green ('01-'06). Other than Green, Gonzo had the likes of Elvis Grbac, Rich Gannon, Tyler Thigpen and Damon Huard throwing him passes. Gronkowski/Hernandez, Graham and Jason Witten, who did they have throwing them passes? Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Tony Romo. Even Vernon Davis has had a more capable arm in Alex Smith throwing him the ball (despite 2011 being his first solid season).

The fact Gonzalez has been so healthy, reliable and productive throughout his career with below-average signal callers throwing him passes just makes me respect him even more. Catching passes over defenders seems to come naturally for the 6'5'' former basketball standout.

So, before we go naming Gronk the greatest tight end ever, and possibly a future HOFer (in his second season) if he goes out there on Sunday and rocks New York's defense, lets not forget about poor old Gonzo down south in Atlanta.

Photo credit

With Atlanta: Otto Greule Jr./Getty Images

With Kansas City: borrowed from Sports Crunch

AFC Championship is Anyone's Game at this Point

The AFC North division champion Baltimore Ravens are heading to Foxboro, Mass. this Sunday to face the No. 1 seeded New England Patriots for a chance to play in the Super Bowl in Indianapolis in February.

Baltimore's stingy defense helped them overcome the Houston Texans' hard-hitting defense and its five sacks of quarterback Joe Flacco, who was also hit on six additional plays and had seven passes defensed against Houston's fourth-ranked overall defense.

Flacco has been a bit of a disappointment this season, as he has been very inconsistent throughout the season, sometimes not even bringing his A game against teams with losing records such as Jacksonville and Seattle. A pair of rookie Texans–DE J.J. Watt and LB Brooks Reed–each recorded 2.5 sacks and combined for 15 solo tackles, including four TFLs (tackles for a loss) against Baltimore's passing attack.

Like I had said in my Preview for this game, the Ravens would win but they would need Ray Rice to get plenty of touches in order for them to do so. Well, he did. He carried the ball 21 times for 60 yards and caught four passes for 20 yards. Clearly he received his fair share of touches, but he wasn't very effective with the ball in his hands (2.9 Y/A, 5.0 Y/R).

I ended up only being half right about the outcome of the game: I picked the winner, but Baltimore's 20-13 victory came because of a dominating defensive effort against rookie signal caller T.J. Yates.

Overall Yates looked closer to a veteran quarterback than a rookie at times. His three interceptions were devastating and led to either BAL points or, as his last one sailed into veteran safety Ed Reed's hands, sealed the victory. Baltimore dropped numerous other possible INT's, which were simple rookie mistakes on Yates' part. But T.J. made a couple of throws that only a handful of QBs are normally able to execute.

This brings me to my next point. If you watched the first AFC matchup of the weekend then I'm sure you noticed how on point Tom Brady was with all of his throws. He was on fire, going 26/34 for 363 yards and 6 TDs with one interception. His five first half TD passes set the postseason record for most in a single half, and his six total tied the postseason record for a single game.

Denver's pass rush struggled to even lay a hand on him (two QB hits, two PDs, 0 sacks) and Brady had no trouble finding tight end Rob Gronkowski in the end zone on three different occasions.

Baltimore's pass rush is far more dangerous than that of Denver, but that doesn't mean Brady is going to turn the ball over. Flacco got his chances at putting the ball in the end zone thanks to the four turnovers his defense forced on Houston. New England, however, doesn't turn the ball over. In fact, they did that just 17 times this entire season (third-least in the league).

Say what you want about New England's porous pass defense, but they have thrived all season on forcing turnovers, much like Baltimore's D, and Flacco's offense is far more vulnerable than New England when it comes to losing the football.

Here's how you know your team is in trouble: Ed Reed made an appearance on The Blitz on SiriusXM's NFL Radio and he made it clear that the Ravens needed to step up as a team this Sunday against the Patriots. He hinted towards the idea that Joe Flacco looked a little rattled by Houston's defense, and that the offense needed to make improvements if they expected to win against New England.


Before this weekend's slate of games I had New England over Denver, Baltimore over Houston, and then Baltimore defeating the Patriots in the Championship game for a trip to the Super Bowl. But after watching New England destroy the Broncos defense with 45 points Saturday night, I may have to re-think my pick.

That's why I will be waiting until the very end of the week to make my two picks. Not only is the AFC game tough to call, but both the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers lit up the scoreboards against their respective Divisional round opponents. With my 6-2 postseason record on the line, I will be taking every second I have to re-evaluate these two match-ups.

Who do you have representing each Conference in Super Bowl XLVI?

Photo credit
Joe Flacco: Rob Carr/Getty Images
Brandon Spikes: Al Bello/Getty Images

Regular Season Award Winners

The Associated Press and National Football League have not released its award winners for the 2011 regular season just yet, but that doesn't mean I, here at All-Out Blitz, can't hand out my seasonal awards.

FYI: These are not predictions, these are simply my award winners. I could care less who the league awards the MVP, ROY, Coach of Year, etc. to...what secret do the voters know that I don't? Exactly. Comments are always welcome in the comment section, of course.

League MVP: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers QB

Stat line: 4,643 yards, 45 TDs, 6 INT, 68.3%, 122.5 QBR

There has been come debate as to whether or not Rodgers and NO's Drew Brees should be given the co-MVP award this season. And I say, no. Not because Brees is less-deserving, but simply because I don't like the idea of giving the award to two different players to share. I'm sure Brees would much rather not win the award than to have to share it with someone else. Rodgers and his 15-1 Packers are a tad more deserving.

People seem to have forgotten that Rodgers' broke Peyton Manning's single-season Quarterback rating record (122.5) in his 15 games, and Rodgers attempted far less passes than Brees throughout the season (502 to 657) which is exactly why he threw for less yards and TDs. Rodgers is more efficient on less pass attempts (68.3%; 9.25 Y/A), and I believe he deserves the award because of that, and because he threw just six INTs.

Runner-ups: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, LeSean McCoy

Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints QB

Stat line: 5,476 yards, 46 TDs, 14 INT, 71.2%, 110.6 QBR

In most cases, this award would go to Rodgers. Simply because he was league MVP he would most likely be awarded top offensive player as well. But I hate that idea and since the MVP race was so close, I decided to spread the wealth and switch things up. This is what I would view as a second-place award this season. Brees couldn't edge out Rodgers in the MVP, but to show how deserving I think he was, I'll hand him the OPOY award as consolation.

There's no doubt he's the reason New Orleans went through the NFC South (13-3) as easily as they did, and minus two off-days against much less opponents (St. Louis, Tampa Bay) and another loss to the league's top team (Green Bay) the Saints could have been flirting with an undefeated season.

Runner-ups: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, LeSean McCoy, Calvin Johnson

Defensive Player of the Year: Terrell Suggs, Baltimore Ravens LB

Stat line: 70 comb. tackles, 14 sacks, 2 INT, 7 FF

This award isn't always about stats, although they do play a huge role in it because it shows productivity. In Suggs case though, I believe it is more about his approach and intimidation level against his opponents. Suggs stepped up and became one of the bigger leaders on Baltimore's defensive squad, maybe surpassing the legendary Ray Lewis in that aspect. His 14 sacks and career/league-high 7 forced fumbles made a huge impact on the field. Completely deserving on Suggs' part.

Runner-ups: DeMarcus Ware, Jared Allen

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers QB

Stat line: 4,051 yards, 21 TDs, 17 INT, 60.0%, 84.5 QBR

Newton wasted no time making a great first impression, throwing for 400+ yards in his first two starts. He turned heads from the start, and broke a few records while he was at it: passing yards by a rookie, rushing TDs by a quarterback (14). At age 22, Newton is well on his way to stardom in Carolina, all he needs is a little help from his supporting cast. Hopefully in 2012 the Panthers' defense will be a bit more healthier than in 2011.

Runner-ups: Andy Dalton, A.J. Green

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Aldon Smith, San Francisco 49ers DE

Stat line: 37 comb. tackles, 14 sacks, 2 FF

As of a couple of weeks ago, I really didn't have Smith on my radar for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award. Denver's Von Miller and Arizona's Patrick Peterson had received much of my attention instead. But Aldon has been a huge part of this feisty San Francisco defense, and without him a key piece is missing. Smith has shown off his pass-rushing ability with his 14 sacks, and has made plenty of big plays for the Niners this season. His future is bright alongside linebackers Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman as the core of SF's defense.

Runner-ups: Von Miller, Patrick Peterson

Comebacker Player of the Year: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions QB

Stat line: 5,038, 41 TDs, 16 INT, 63.5%, 97.2 QBR

I'm disgusted with how many quarterbacks are being handed my awards, but 2011 truly was the Year of the Quarterbacks (as cliche' as ESPN has made that statement). Stafford became the fourth different quarterback to throw for 5,000 yards in a season and threw for a career-high 41 TDs as his 10-6 Lions made the playoffs for the first time since 1999. He hurt his shoulder and played just three games last season, in his second year as a professional. Successful third year, I'd say, Mr. Stafford.

Runner-ups: Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush

Breakout Player of the Year: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots TE

Stat line: 90 Rec., 1,327, 17 TDs, 14.7 YPR

Gronkowski, in his second professional season, has put together the best season by a tight end in NFL history, hands down. Gronk set records for both yards and touchdowns by a tight end in a single-season. He not only led tight ends in touchdowns, but he led the entire league with 17 touchdowns, topping Detroit's Calvin "Megatron" Johnson, and averaged more yards per catch than fellow tight end Jimmy Graham, who was the No. 2 guy among Gronk's position. He may have Tom Brady throwing him the ball, but either way this award was a no-brainer in my eyes, and belongs to Gronk.

Runner-ups: Victor Cruz, Jason Pierre-Paul, NaVorro Bowman

Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers

In just one season, his first as a professional football coach, Harbaugh (Baltimore's HC John Harbaugh's brother, as we are all well aware of by now) has turned the cellar-dwelling Niners in to Super Bowl contenders. His defense is one of the most fierce as of right now, and there's no telling if Green Bay and New Orleans will have as much success against Willis, Bowman and the Smiths as they expect. Harbaugh's intensity and will to win may be the most intriguing part about his approach to the game.

Runner-ups: Mike McCarthy, Gary Kubiak

Photo credit:
Rodgers: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images
Suggs: Larry French/Getty Images
Gronkowski: Doug Pensinger/Getty Images