Never too Early: MVP Candidates Through Week 5

Who said it was too early to look forward to the Most Valuable Player of the 2012 season? It's never too early to talk MVP! Through five weeks of play there are numerous players in the running for the league's most coveted individual award. Here are All-Out Blitz's nominees:

Matt Ryan, ATL: 68.3%, 1,507 yards, 13 TD, 3 INT, 106.1 rating

Ryan has struggled to stay consistent, especially in the postseason, in recent seasons. But from the looks of the Atlanta offense this season, 2012 could end up being Matt Ryan's time to shine. Obviously the Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees' will still be in the hunt for the MVP, but I decided to keep Ryan as the only quarterback on this list. The signal caller of one of two remaining undefeated squads, Ryan has played near-perfect football and has possibly created one of the best trios (Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones) in the league right now.

Jamaal Charles, KC: 551 yards, 2 TDs, 5.4 Y/C

One year after suffering a season-ending ACL, Charles has broken out as the league's leading rusher. His three total TDs (2 rushing; 1 receiving) doesn't top the charts, but 5.4 Y/C and a league-best five runs of 20+ yards certainly gives the Chiefs an edge over the opponent and, with Matt Cassel struggling under center, Charles has been carrying the load for Kansas City.

Arian Foster, HOU: 532, 5 TDs, 4.0 Y/C

Fitting that the top two leading rushers are the two backs to crack the list of top MVP candidates, but I didn't just look at the top of the stat list to make these choices. Foster, despite his 4.0 yards per carry, has helped Houston's offense immensely. Thanks to his 106.4 yards per game and 5 rushing TDs (in addition to 1 through the air), Houston has managed to stay balanced on offense and put up nearly 30 points per game.

A.J. Green, CIN: 36 Rec., 493 yards, 4 TD

There are other wideouts out there that could be substituted in for Green, but I give the second-year receiver the edge over guys such as Victor Cruz, Wes Welker and Reggie Wayne. Sure Brian Hartline and Demaryius Thomas each have better numbers than Green, but do you really expect them to keep up this pace? Green, on the other hand, is quickly blossoming into a superstar wide receiver before our eyes. And the crazy thing is, he's in just his second season with a second-year quarterback in Andy Dalton throwing him passes. If he can keep up the numbers throughout the season, especially against teams such as Baltimore and Pittsburgh within the North, it would be a well-deserved MVP.

J.J. Watt, HOU: 26 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 8 PD, 2 FR

In just his second professional season, Watt is leading the league's 4th overall scoring defense. Fellow Houston Texan Brian Cushing has been lost for the season after tearing his ACL on Monday night, but the crazy thing is they may not even skip a beat. Watt is making an impact in every aspect on defense, recording 26 tackles and a league-leading 8.5 sacks. His 8 passes defensed ranks at No. 3 (tied with five others) among a group of cornerbacks and safeties. Coming off the edge, Watt will make an impact in some sort, whether it's getting to the quarterback or disrupting the play by throwing up his huge hands and knocking the ball down. Just an overall impressive first five games.

Clay Matthews III, GB: 21 tackles, 8.0 sacks, 1 PD, 1 FF

Matthews is having a great start to the season, on pace to top his career-high 13.5 sacks set in 2010, his second season in the league. Yet he's still five tackles, a half a sack and seven passes defensed behind Houston's Watt. Defenders don't win the MVP very often at all, but if I were to choose two defenders that could compete for it this season, it would be Watt and Matthews (in that order). The 26-year old Matthews is as scary as ever.

Other top performers by position:

Quarterback

Drew Brees, NO

Eli Manning, NYG

Aaron Rodgers, GB

Tom Brady, NE

Running back

Frank Gore, SF

Alfred Morris, WAS

LeSean McCoy, PHI

Stevan Ridley, NE

Wide receiver

Demaryius Thomas, DEN

Brandon Marshall, CHI

Reggie Wayne, IND

Marques Colson, NO

Note: The last non-QB/RB to win the Associated Press Most Valuable Player award was LB Lawrence Taylor in 1986. Since the award started in 1957, there have been just three non-QB/RB winners of the award (Taylor, Washington PK Mark Moseley in 1982 and Minnesota DT Alan Page in 1971). So, a wideout has never won and only two defenders have ever been awarded an MVP award.

What does this mean? Well, basically we can eliminate A.J. Green, J.J. Watt and Clay Matthews. Unless of course they end up tripling their current numbers by the end of the season––and even if Green did so, he still probably wouldn't have numbers good enough to compete.

Our Early Favorite: Matt Ryan

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AFC Championship is Anyone's Game at this Point

The AFC North division champion Baltimore Ravens are heading to Foxboro, Mass. this Sunday to face the No. 1 seeded New England Patriots for a chance to play in the Super Bowl in Indianapolis in February.

Baltimore's stingy defense helped them overcome the Houston Texans' hard-hitting defense and its five sacks of quarterback Joe Flacco, who was also hit on six additional plays and had seven passes defensed against Houston's fourth-ranked overall defense.

Flacco has been a bit of a disappointment this season, as he has been very inconsistent throughout the season, sometimes not even bringing his A game against teams with losing records such as Jacksonville and Seattle. A pair of rookie Texans–DE J.J. Watt and LB Brooks Reed–each recorded 2.5 sacks and combined for 15 solo tackles, including four TFLs (tackles for a loss) against Baltimore's passing attack.

Like I had said in my Preview for this game, the Ravens would win but they would need Ray Rice to get plenty of touches in order for them to do so. Well, he did. He carried the ball 21 times for 60 yards and caught four passes for 20 yards. Clearly he received his fair share of touches, but he wasn't very effective with the ball in his hands (2.9 Y/A, 5.0 Y/R).

I ended up only being half right about the outcome of the game: I picked the winner, but Baltimore's 20-13 victory came because of a dominating defensive effort against rookie signal caller T.J. Yates.

Overall Yates looked closer to a veteran quarterback than a rookie at times. His three interceptions were devastating and led to either BAL points or, as his last one sailed into veteran safety Ed Reed's hands, sealed the victory. Baltimore dropped numerous other possible INT's, which were simple rookie mistakes on Yates' part. But T.J. made a couple of throws that only a handful of QBs are normally able to execute.

This brings me to my next point. If you watched the first AFC matchup of the weekend then I'm sure you noticed how on point Tom Brady was with all of his throws. He was on fire, going 26/34 for 363 yards and 6 TDs with one interception. His five first half TD passes set the postseason record for most in a single half, and his six total tied the postseason record for a single game.

Denver's pass rush struggled to even lay a hand on him (two QB hits, two PDs, 0 sacks) and Brady had no trouble finding tight end Rob Gronkowski in the end zone on three different occasions.

Baltimore's pass rush is far more dangerous than that of Denver, but that doesn't mean Brady is going to turn the ball over. Flacco got his chances at putting the ball in the end zone thanks to the four turnovers his defense forced on Houston. New England, however, doesn't turn the ball over. In fact, they did that just 17 times this entire season (third-least in the league).

Say what you want about New England's porous pass defense, but they have thrived all season on forcing turnovers, much like Baltimore's D, and Flacco's offense is far more vulnerable than New England when it comes to losing the football.

Here's how you know your team is in trouble: Ed Reed made an appearance on The Blitz on SiriusXM's NFL Radio and he made it clear that the Ravens needed to step up as a team this Sunday against the Patriots. He hinted towards the idea that Joe Flacco looked a little rattled by Houston's defense, and that the offense needed to make improvements if they expected to win against New England.


Before this weekend's slate of games I had New England over Denver, Baltimore over Houston, and then Baltimore defeating the Patriots in the Championship game for a trip to the Super Bowl. But after watching New England destroy the Broncos defense with 45 points Saturday night, I may have to re-think my pick.

That's why I will be waiting until the very end of the week to make my two picks. Not only is the AFC game tough to call, but both the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers lit up the scoreboards against their respective Divisional round opponents. With my 6-2 postseason record on the line, I will be taking every second I have to re-evaluate these two match-ups.

Who do you have representing each Conference in Super Bowl XLVI?

Photo credit
Joe Flacco: Rob Carr/Getty Images
Brandon Spikes: Al Bello/Getty Images