Showing posts with label Playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Playoffs. Show all posts

Monday, December 24, 2012

Denver and Seattle: Super Bowl Favorites?

The playoff field hasn't been complete quite yet, but that past two weeks of play have really taught us a lot. Some of the match-ups may have even been a preview of what's to come this January.

When it comes down to making a late-January playoff push, it's all about who has the most complete team. After impressive performances yesterday, I think it's relatively clear which two teams have the most complete teams heading into the 2012-13 postseason: Denver in the AFC and Seattle in the NFC.

It's actually quite baffling that more people have not been talking about the Denver Broncos, who happen to be one win and a Texans' loss away from snagging the No. 1 seed in the AFC (can still clinch first round bye with victory over Kansas City on Sunday). At 12-3 with one final regular season game remaining on the schedule, the Broncos are on a 10-game winning streak.

The streak, which may just be the quietest double-digit win streak I've seen in quite a while, includes big wins over teams such as New Orleans, Cincinnati and Baltimore. Peyton Manning (68.1%, 4,355 yards, 34 TD, 11 INT, 103.7 rating) has stated his case for MVP and Comeback Player of the Year, leading his offense to 10 30-point victories this season. The team's only three losses this season have come against playoff teams (Atlanta, Houston and New England), have been decided by 10 or fewer points and all came within the first five weeks of the season.
Since the last loss on October 7, Peyton & Co. has outscored opponents 308-172, and has put up less than 20 points in a game just once.

Sure, the New England Patriots (11-4) beat Denver earlier in the year and have had a more high-powered scoring offense than Manning's Broncos this season. But the Broncos have excelled in a very important area that the Pats have not: Denver's defense has been playing out of its mind this season.

Led by second-year linebacker Von Miller (65 total tackles, 17.5 sacks, 1 INT, 6 FF, 1 TD), Denver's defense has jumped from 24th scoring defense in 2011 to the 5th-ranked scoring defense this season. Atop the AFC in the category (behind SEA, CHI, San Fran, ATL), Denver has surrendered 19.1 points per game.

Having a healthy Elvis Dumervil back in the lineup this season has done wonders against the pass, as they currently rank 7th in pass defense (17th last season) lead the league in sacks with 48––28.5 of those have come from the Dumervil/Miller combination.

Peyton's 2nd-best scoring offense has received some assistance from the secondary in the scoring department, with 5 touchdowns coming off interception returns and one additional touchdown coming from a Tony Carter fumble recovery.

The rookie-led Seattle Seahawks haven't been quite as high-scoring as Denver's No. 2 ranked scoring offense, but in the month of December they've been the highest-scoring team in the league. Clinching a playoff spot in the NFC after defeating San Francisco last night, the 'Hawks have outscored opponents 150-30 over the last three weeks.
At 10-5 and current placeholder of the No. 5 seed in the NFC, Seattle has a shot at winning the NFC West division thanks to a four-game winning streak and a 6-1 record since the end of October. Although only one of its five losses have come against a playoff team (13-6 to San Francisco), all five of them have been by a touchdown or less.

The fact that rookie quarterback Russell Wilson (63.4%, 2,868 yards, 25 TD, 10 INT, 98.0 rating) is leading the team to these wins and is just one passing TD away from tying Peyton Manning's rookie record of 26 isn't even the most impressive thing about this team. Just like Denver, it's the defense that's impressing.

When it comes to playoff football I don't care how much you're passing the ball, defense and a powerful running game wins championships. Top NFC teams Atlanta (13-2) and Green Bay (11-4) have been throwing out of their minds with two top gunslingers Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. But they don't run the ball consistently well.

Both are top 10 passing teams, but Green Bay ranks 20th on the ground while Atlanta ranks 28th. Running under 4.0 yards per carry as a team isn't going to get the job done on the ground. Interestingly enough, Seattle's Marshawn Lynch, A.K.A. "Beast Mode," has single-handedly outrun the Falcons entire team this season (1,490 yards, 11 TDs to 1,332 yards, 11 TD) and has come close to outrunning Green Bay.
Running the ball 297 times with Lynch has done wonders for Wilson's development as the season has progressed, and actually 431 yards and 3 of the team's rushing TDs have come from Wilson himself. That's also something we haven't quite seen from Matt Ryan in Atlanta, though Aaron Rodgers is usually a threat on his feet if the opposition allows him too much time.

Now, when it comes to the defensive side of things, this is where it gets scary. Quietly the Seahawks have become the league's No. 1 scoring defense. After shutting down Colin Kaerpernick and the Niners last night (something I was not prepared for and didn't think would actually happen), the Seahawks are now 19 points ahead of the No. 2 scoring defense in Chicago and the 49ers fell to No. 3.

Try to digest these defensive numbers for Seattle:

5.0 yards/play (t-5th)
275 first downs allowed (7th)
2,998 passing yards (5th)
14 passing TDs (t-2nd)
17 interceptions (t-9th)
71.6 rating (3rd)
36 sacks (t-12th)
1,570 rushing yards (11th)
8 rushing TDs (t-5th)
13 fumble recoveries (7th)
30 forced turnovers (t-5th)
6 defensive touchdowns (t-3rd)

Individual Defensive Numbers:

Bobby Wagner––129 total tackles, 2.0 sacks, 3 INT, 4 passes defensed
Chris Clemons––38 total tackles, 11.5 sacks, 3 FF, 4 passes defensed
Richard Sherman––60 total tackles, 1.0 sack, 7 INT, 3 FF, 23 passes defensed, 1 TD
Kam Chancellor––84 total tackles, 1 FF, 2 FR, 4 passes defensed
Earl Thomas––58 total tackles, 3 INT, 1 FF, 9 passes defensed
Bruce Irvin (R)––16 total tackles, 8 sacks, 1 FF


In order for a team to be strong enough to make a deep playoff run and compete for a championship in the NFL, it has to be able to be multi-dimensional and have a tough defense. Though passing seems to be taking over the NFL, a strong running game is still vital to postseason success.

Because of this, and the fact that young quarterbacks seem to be taking over the game as well, it appears as though the Broncos and Seahawks are two of the best-fit teams for a championship at the moment and are getting hot at exactly the right time. If you were to ask me back in August if I thought the Seahawks and Broncos would be where they are right now at the end of December, I would probably say no. But Peyton has proven he's back and as strong as ever, and Russell Wilson proved last night that he's a force to be reckoned with coming out of the NFC West.

Note: We do not own the above images. No copyright infringement intended.

Sunday, September 11, 2011

2011 Season Preview: Playoffs and Award Predictions

"What's that, playoffs?! Don't talk about playoffs, you kidding me, playoffs?!"

Thanks to the famous words of Jim Mora, I can bring to you the official 2011 playoffs preview. In my AFC and NFC season preview I picked division winners and wild card contenders. But as far as who will be making the playoff runs and beat out the rest for a Super Bowl appearance? That's coming up.

Wild Card Round

6 New York Jets @ 3 San Diego Chargers

Norv Turner brought his Bolts back to the playoffs with an AFC West title and third seed in the playoffs, yet was still not the best team on the field in San Diego. Rex Ryan's Jets were too much for Shaun Phillips and SD's defense as Mark Sanchez and New York's offense puts up 31 points.

NYJ 31-17

5 Baltimore Ravens @ 4 Houston Texans

Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson led the way for the third highest scoring team in the league this season as the Texans captured the franchise's first winning season, division title and playoff appearance. However, Ray Lewis and Co. were too much for Houston's high-powered O, forcing three Schaub mistakes in the first round victory.
BAL 28-14

6 Dallas Cowboys @ 3 Green Bay Packers

Tony Romo is back! Despite the huge season from Romo (my pick for Comeback Player of the Year), the Cowboys fell short in the postseason yet again, getting knocked off by the defending champs.

GB 38-28

5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4 St. Louis Rams

Tampa is young and hungry–"youngry"–and Raheem Morris' mindset paid off against the West's champion St. Louis Rams in this first round matchup. Ronde Barber's defensive unit was too much for the second-year signal caller Sam Bradford in the Rams' dome.
TB 21-10

Divisional Round

6 New York Jets @ 1 New England Patriots

A rematch of last season's divisional matchup between the three-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady and GQ's cover boy Mark Sanchez. Sanchez and the Jets are looking to make a third straight AFC Championship appearance, until Brady and his boys came and spoiled it.

NE 28-17

5 Baltimore Ravens @ 2 Pittsburgh Steelers

Yet another divisional matchup between these two teams, second straight. As much as I'd love to believe that Baltimore finally stepped up its game against Pittsburgh in the playoffs, it's just not going to happen this season...again. Pittsburgh–safety Troy Polamalu in particular–owns Baltimore's Joe Flacco.
PIT 24-14

6 Dallas Cowboys @ 1 Atlanta Falcons

Another can happen, right? Right. That's exactly why I'm picking the Falcons to fall in their first game of the postseason for a second straight season. I'd love to see "Matty Ice" have a breakout performance in the playoffs, but Romo's Boys are poised for another solid game.

DAL 34-21

5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 2 Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa is youngry! But Michael Vick and his Eagles were on fire all season, there's no way they let a couple of Buccaneers get in their way of the Super Bowl this season. Vick runs all over the Bucs en route to a convincing victory.
PHI 38-17

Conference Championships

2 Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 New England Patriots

New England got the best of the Steelers the last time these two played for the AFC Championship, and I believe it will happen again. Brady is still at his best, and this could be the last year that he's at the very top of his game.

NE 35-24

6 Dallas Cowboys @ 2 Philadelphia Eagles

Another year, another Cowboys failure. Despite reaching the NFC Championship, we can deem this season of Romo and Dallas' a failure, because they fell short of the Super Bowl thanks to NFC East counterpart Philadelphia.

PHI 31-21

Super Bowl

Road to Indy:

2 Philadelphia Eagles vs. 1 New England Patriots

Ah, a rematch of the 2004 Super Bowl XXXIX, in which New England defeated Philadelphia 24-21. Unfortunately I believe the same thing will happen. Not the exact score, but the Patriots 2000s "dynasty" is overdue another championship. Welker wins the MVP that he's been waiting for all these years.

NE 28-14
Regular Season Awards

MVP: Aaron Rodgers
Best quarterback: Aaron Rodgers
Best running back: Adrian Peterson
Best wide receiver: Larry Fitzgerald
Best tight end: Jason Witten
Best offensive lineman: Maurkice Pouncey
Best defensive lineman: Ndamukong Suh
Best linebacker: Patrick Willis
Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers
Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Willis
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Julio Jones
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller
Comeback Player of the Year: Tony Romo
Breakout Player of the Year: Colt McCoy/LeGarrette Blount
Best player on new team: Nnamdi Asomugha
Coach of the Year: Gary Kubiak

Note: photos found on Google, no copyright infringement intended

Monday, January 17, 2011

Jets Talk-the-Talk, and Show they can Walk-the-Walk with Playoff Victory over Pats

I have to admit it, Rex Ryan's Jets did it once again.

I was expecting Mr. Playoff himself, Tom Brady, to walk in their and send the Jets home with their tails between their legs. But the defense stepped it up and backed up all their trash talk earlier that week, and made Wes Welker look silly after his 11 foot references, direct towards coach Ryan, in a press conference earlier this week.

As much as I didn't like to see the loud and obnoxious Jets do exactly what they keep saying they were going to do, you gotta tip your hats to them. They showed the NFL world that Brady can, and will be, stopped. Much like the Baltimore Ravens did last year against the Pats.

I can't exactly remember who it was, but I noticed someone that I follow on twitter that the New England Patriots haven't won a big game since they were caught cheating in '07. Interesting piece of information, though I really don't believe that it's that big of a deal.

The Patriots have had a target on their back since the last time they won the Super Bowl, and it seems opposing coaches have done a very nice job coming up with a game plan to stop them over the last couple of seasons.

What the Patriots failed to do is get pressure on Mark Sanchez. The mistakes and turnovers come when he's being hit and rushed, but the Pats' pass rush couldn't get to him and bring him down all game. With no pressure, comes no turnovers for this young signal caller.
It surely was a struggle for both teams early on, as New York couldn't take advantage of Tom Brady's first interception since he threw two in the team's week five showdown with Baltimore. After just three plays following David Harris's 58-yard return of the INT, kicker Nick Folk missed a 30-yard field which went just inches to the left of the upright.

That was Brady's only mistake of the game as he threw for 299 yards and two TDs throughout the game. But after taking an early 3-0 lead, New England allowed the Jets to take its first lead of the day with a 7-yard run from running back Ladainian Tomlinson, who isn't much of a fan of the Pats after his Chargers fell to them in the 2006 AFC Divisional round and he watched the Patriots dance on the No. 1 seed's logo in the middle of the field.

After that game he called them out for having 'no class' in the press conference, and has hated them ever since. I actually tend to believe that that's one of the many reasons he signed with the Jets this offseason. Because of the rivalry with New England.

Mark Sanchez threw his first of a career playoff-high three TDs during the second quarter, just before the half, to wideout Braylon Edwards from 15 yards out. This allowed the Jets to carry the momentum in to the locker room at the half, leading 14-3.

It didn't seem as though anyone doubted that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick wouldn't come right back out with a few adjustments and get back in to this game early in the second half. But, no scoring took place until less than a minute remained in the third quarter, and it was Brady's first TD pass of the game to Alge Crumpler from two yards out. Sammy Morris scored his first points of the season after running the ball in for the successful two-point conversion try, making it a three-point game (14-11) at the end of three quarters.

Once again, Brady is dangerous in the fourth quarter. And once again New York proved to everyone that they can hang with their AFC East counterpart, scoring another Sanchez touchdown. This one was to Mr. Postseason himself, wideout Santonio Holmes, who now has caught four touchdown passes in his six postseason games. Just two minutes in to the final quarter of play and New York was back to a 10-point lead.
New England's 14-play drive after the NY touchdown, which elapsed nearly eight full minutes of action, ended when Deion Branch dropped a pass on fourth & 13. With five minutes to play after the dropped pass, it seemed the Pats chances had slipped away. New York failed to pick up a first down on their drive, though, and was forced to give the ball right back with a 10-point lead still.

New England got a Shayne Graham field goal with a minute and a half to play, but a failed onside kick attempt led to another New York touchdown, this one run in by running back Shonn Greene. Down 28-14, New England did witness another Brady touchdown to Branch, putting them within seven. But the Pats were finally put out of their misery after they failed on a second onside kick.

Rex Ryan was pumped, Bart Scott was pumped as he showed in a post-game interview (though the overrated linebacker only contributed two tackles on defense) and yes, Braylon Edwards was pumped as well, showing his enthusiasm with a cart-wheel followed by a backflip in the middle of the playing field. Some Patriots' players decided not to shake hands in the middle of the field afterwards because they felt as though some of the Jets weren't showing any class.

Deion Branch even called out some of those Jets players in the press room afterwards. It's a bit funny, in my opinion, because isn't that exactly what New England did to the Jets just six weeks ago when they routed New York by 42 points? I believe that's exactly what happened.

So of course New York is going to do this after defeating the favored Pats, in their own house.

If you can't take it, New England, please don't dish it out. You started this, New York's trash talk--and defeat of the Pats--just finished it for you.

(Note: I do not approve of the class-less Jets actions after the game, but at the same time I don't think it's fair for the Patriots to cry about it when that's exactly what they did to New York earlier in the season.)

Should be a great AFC Championship game next week in Pittsburgh! But I will likely be picking against the Jets for the second straight week. I wonder if they will prove me wrong again?

Photo credit
Ladainian Tomlinson: NFL/Kirby Lee
David Harris: AP Photo/Michael Dwyer

Cutler, Chicago Put Seattle's Super Bowl Dreams to Bed with Big Win at Solider Field

After narrowly defeating division rival St. Louis at home back on January 2 to clinch the NFC West, many fans, and even 'experts' had a fit about the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks hosting a game in the playoffs. Not just any playoff game though, it happened to be a Wild Card matchup with the defending champion New Orleans Saints.

But, after Seattle knocked off the Saints, 41-36, last weekend, everybody and their momma seemed to jump all over Seattle's playoff bandwagon. It was almost as if the 13-3 Chicago Bears, the NFC's second seed, were no longer the favorites, despite being favored by 10 points according to many bookies.

All of the talk ended as soon as Seattle stepped in to the snowy Soldier Field yesterday, though.

The 35-24 final score really doesn't tell the whole story. You kind of had to watch the game in order to fully understand the Chicago dominance in this one. Once again, Matt Hasselbeck's stats were outstanding (26/46, 258 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT), which is what we have come to expect from the veteran, but his offense didn't start clicking until the final quarter of play. Much too late for Pete Carroll's Seahawks.
Quarterback Jay Cutler (15/28, 274 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT) seemed flawless in his postseason debut, but it was the Bears' run game that was the difference in this matchup, overpowering Seattle for 176 yards, including Matt Forte's 80 yards and Cutler's two rushing TDs.

Seattle, on the other hand, couldn't get anything going on the ground, running for just 34 yards as a team. As I told you in my preview and bold predictions post, Da Bears shut down last week's hero--Marshawn Lynch--for just two yards on four carries. Why they didn't use Lynch more often is beyond me, but Chicago did what they could to stop him on his limited carries.

The score read 28-3 at the end of three quarters, seemingly out of reach for Seattle. Not so fast. Hasselbeck finally got things under control and led Seattle on three fourth quarter touchdown drives. If it wasn't for Cutler's 39-yard bomb to Kellen Davis with just under five minutes to play, we probably would've had ourselves a game.

Nevertheless, Chicago forced the Seahawks to be one dimensional, both through defense by shutting their RBs down, and through offense for taking a huge early lead at the half. This forced Seattle to play catchup the entire second half, making it tough to effectively run the football.

With Green Bay's red-hot offense coming in to Soldier Field next weekend, there's a chance we could see a history-making NFC Championship on Sunday.

One could only hope...

Photo credit
Bears offense: AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Just a couple of BOLD Predictions for Today's Games

Just about ten minutes until the first game, Seattle vs. Chicago at Soldier Field, kicks off on FOX. So why not take one last sneak peak at the final two games of the Divisional round.

Here are a few predictions of mine which are longshots to happen, but are still certainly possible in today's match-ups:

*After being sacked by Seattle's defense six times in the Seattle/Chicago week six showdown, the Bears make a nice recovery as Seattle's defense, led by D-end Chris Clemons, gets to Cutler just twice. Cutler finishes the game mistake-free as well.
*Eight days after Marshawn Lynch's "greatest run in postseason history," in which he broke eight tackles on a 67-yard game-clinching touchdown run to slay the giant (defending champion Saints), the Seattle running back is shut down by Chicago's top-tier defense.

*Tom Brady scorches trash-talking New York cornerback Antonio Cromartie for three touchdowns in a New England blowout.

*Mark Sanchez is sacked four times, and picked off three more times, in his matchup against New England's defense, whom intercepted the opposition a league-leading 25 times in the regular season.

Enjoy the games, and keep an eye on these four bold predictions of mine.

Photo credit
Marshawn Lynch: NFL/Kirby Lee

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Favored Atlanta embarrassed by Green Bay on Home Turf

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan--was coined the nickname "Matty Cool" because of his cool and collectiveness while under pressure--was roughed up against Green Bay's defense in a 48-21 defeat.

Green Bay's linebacker Clay Matthews III led the surge for the Pack's defense, recording two of the team's five sacks of Ryan. Ryan was also responsible for three of Atlanta's four turnovers (two INTs, one fumble lost) on the offensive side of the ball.

Despite the struggles Atlanta put up 21 points throughout the sixty minutes of play, but with Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers nearly unstoppable at this point, the Falcons virtually had no chance at winning this from the start of the game. Rodgers was near-perfect, completing 31 of his 36 pass attempts for 366 yards and three touchdowns.
The lone bright spot of the game for Atlanta fans? Watching return man Eric Weems, a Pro Bowler this season, set a postseason record with his 102-yard kick return touchdown early in the second quarter. But it was all down hill from there as Green Bay scored five unanswered touchdowns, including a 70-yard interceptions touchdown return for cornerback Tramon Williams as time expired in the first half. The interception seemed to be the turning point in the game, deflating any confidence Matt Ryan had in him and giving Green Bay a two-touchdown lead (28-14) at the break.

Atlanta never recovered. Rodgers' offense put the game away with 20 second half points, and showed the world that the Atlanta Falcons are not Super Bowl favorites. Rather, I believe it's the Packers who are the favorites coming out of the NFC.

Since I had picked Atlanta to win, this game drops my postseason game pick record to 4-2 entering the second day of Divisional round play. Let's hope the excitement of tomorrow's two games are the equivalent of today's first game (BAL/PIT), not the second (GB/ATL).

Photo credit
Jordy Nelson: AP Photo/John Bazemore

Steelers' 24-point Second Half Enough to Edge Ravens for a Trip to AFC Championship Game

Day one of the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs is officially in the books, and it sure has been a wild and wacky one.

In the first game, between two arch nemesis out of the AFC North, defense proved to be the key to victory, as expected from the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. Both of which have been in the top five in overall defense in the league for nearly the entire decade.

Playing in Pittsburgh, Joe Flacco and the 13-4 Ravens, coming off a 30-7 shellacking of the AFC West champion Kansas City Chiefs last weekend, got off to a great start in the first half. Pittsburgh drew first blood with a 1-yard touchdown from running back Rashard Mendenhall to cap a six minute opening drive. But Baltimore quickly came back and scored 14 unanswered points on consecutive drives. The second of the two came after a controversial Ben Roethlisberger fumble.

Baltimore linebacker Terrell Suggs turned the corner on the Steelers' battered offensive line and hit Roethlisberger from behind, forcing him to get rid of the ball. After the ball appeared to bounce off a defender and hit the ground after leaving his hand, all 21 of the 22 players on the field seemed to believe the play was over with an incomplete pass. The one player whom realized there hadn't been a whistle blow yet--Corey Redding, Baltimore's veteran defensive tackle out of Texas--picked the ball up and ran it back 13 yards for the score. The play was challenge, but the touchdown was upheld, leaving coach Mike Tomlin and the rest of Heinz Field in shock.
The score at the end of one was 14-7, but Baltimore's first half scoring didn't stop there.

After exchanging punts, the Steelers got the ball back deep inside its own territory looking for a fresh start. A couple plays later Mendenhall fumbled the football and gave Baltimore yet another scoring chance. Flacco took advantage, of course, and six plays later threw a four-yard touchdown to Todd Heap. Baltimore went ahead by two scores.

Pittsburgh tried to regroup and get a drive together just before the half, but Roethlisberger's offense sputtered and kicker Shaun Suisham ended up missing a 43-yard field goal after successfully converting his first 14 attempts as Pittsburgh's kicker.

Tomlin's squad did not play Pittsburgh football in the first half of play, giving Baltimore far too many chances to score and digging themselves a huge hole. But, this is why he is a pro football head coach. He was able to get his guys together at the half, regroup, and come out and hit gold in the second half.

Pittsburgh dominated every facet of the game in the second half, outscoring the Ravens 14-0 in the third quarter, and 24-3 in the second half altogether. The key? The exact same 'key' that Baltimore had in the first half of play: turnovers. Pittsburgh forced two fumbles and a Flacco turnover in the third and fourth quarter of play and were able to take advantage of them.

At the end of the third quarter, Baltimore had just 94 total yards, as they finished the game with just 126 total net yards as compared to Pittsburgh's 263. Pittsburgh beat Baltimore in the time of possession category by nearly 10 minutes as well. Despite playing rather sloppily in the penalty category (9-93 yards), the Steelers defense controlled Ray Rice (12 attempts, 32 yards, 1 TD) and grounded Joe Flacco, who threw for just 125 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and was sacked five times (three recorded by James Harrison).

To overcome such a deficit through ferocious defense, Pittsburgh has proved they can hang in there with a poised Roethlisberger and an aggressive play-calling approach by defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. Looking forward to next week's matchup whether they play New York or New England.

Photo credit
James Farrior: NFL/Joe Robbins

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Weekend Preview: Who will earn a spot in the Conference Championship?

I have been slacking with the posts as of late and never really did an official recap of this past weekend's Wild Card match-ups. Therefore, I will be combining my (late) recap with a preview of the Divisional round. My picks for last week's slate of games was 3-1, by the way, with my only bad pick being the Saints/Seahawks game.

Also I have added, in addition to my game pick, a simulation of all four games by both Whatifsports.com and Madden 2011. I let the computer play all four Divisional games and have added the final score for your entertainment. I was looking to earn a little extra credit, so I finished the rest of the playoffs and Super Bowl simulations via WIS and Madden for additional entertainment. The final scores of the Conference Championships and Super Bowl were added to the end of my article. Enjoy:

Saturday January 15, 2011

(5) Baltimore Ravens at (2) Pittsburgh Steelers (4:30 PM ET on CBS)

How Baltimore won on Sunday: The first half of the first round game between the Baltimore Ravens and the AFC West winning Kansas City Chiefs was very sloppy on both sides of the ball as Kansas City's Pro Bowl running back Jamaal Charles took over the spotlight at Arrowhead with his 41 yard touchdown run following a Joe Flacco fumble. Baltimore dominated the first half time of possession, holding on to the ball for 20 of the 30 minutes, but three sacks of Flacco, and the Flacco fumble limited Baltimore's offense to just 10 first half points as they went in to the break with a 10-7 lead.

Kansas City's head coach Todd Haley failed to make the needed adjustments at the half as the Ravens came out and scored 13 third quarter points. Simply enough, Baltimore's defense stepped it up and forced two turnovers during the quarter (one fumble, one INT) and put points on the board as a result. Before the final quarter even began, the Chiefs' hearts were out of it. Baltimore's defense, led by the intimidating Terrell Suggs and future Hall of Fame linebacker Ray Lewis, took the final two quarters over and forced three second half turnovers, leading to a 20-point outburst.

What will need to be done to win this Saturday: When these two teams meet, it's always a bloodbath. And points are always hard to come by considering these are two the toughest defenses in the game. Turnovers are a given. So that's why I think the team with the most effective offense will come out winners in this game. Both teams are tough against the run, so if Ray Rice and Rashard Mendenhall are able to make an impact on the game it will go a long way for their respective team.

Who will win: I'm going to have to lean towards Pittsburgh in this one, likely because Ben Roethlisberger edges Joe Flacco in the postseason, and knows how to have success against the Ravens (7-3 against BAL in the regular season; 1-0 in postseason). I haven't even mentioned the fact that Baltimore will be playing on Pittsburgh's home turf with 50,000-plus Terrible Towels. Pittsburgh wins 14-10.

WIS' prediction: Steelers 16-13
Madden's prediction: Steelers 17-10
(6) Green Bay Packers at (1) Atlanta Falcons (8 PM ET on FOX)

How Green Bay won on Sunday: Aaron Rodgers and his sixth seeded Packers were technically underdogs to the Eagles, but this doesn't necessarily surprise me that they were able to go in to the Linc in Philly and defeat Vick's Eagles. Green Bay's record could have easily ended up much better than it was at the end of the regular season had Rodgers not suffered from a concussion late in the season against Detroit. Rodgers is back to full speed and led his Packers to a 14-3 halftime lead as the defense limited Vick early on. The difference between the two games is that Green Bay played solid all sixty minutes and were able to control the clock throughout, as well as limit the mental mistakes (just two penalties all game).

Philadelphia was able to force two Green Bay turnovers, but was only able to convert one of them for points. Two missed David Akers field goal attempts and a failed two point conversion could blamed for the loss, but the fact of the matter is that Vick got greedy towards the end of the game and went for it all. He rushed a throw in to the corner of the end zone to rookie receiver Riley Cooper and the Pack took advantage of the under-thrown pass as Tramon Williams picked off the pass to seal the five-point victory.

What will need to be done to win this Saturday: For the Packers, another huge key in to their victory in the first round was the running game. After Ryan Grant suffered a season-ending injury ankle injury (against Philly) during the first game of the season, Green Bay's run game came in to question. Brandon Jackson--Grant's replacement--ran for career-highs 703 yards and three touchdowns in the regular season, but was a non-factor this past weekend (3 attempts for 10 yards). Luckily for head coach Mike McCarthy, first-year running back James Starks (29 attempts, 101 yards during regular season) ran for 123 yards in his first career postseason game. If Green Bay wants to defeat Atlanta, they will need to make them one dimensional by taking away the run. If Michael Turner is a non-factor, and the Packers secondary can control Roddy White, Matt Ryan may find himself in some trouble against Green Bay's front seven.

Who will win: The above paragraph is much easier said than done. Stopping Atlanta's fifth-highest scoring offense is quite the task, and after allowing 352 total yards last week, I can't see Green Bay succeeding against Matty Ice, Turner and White. The run game of the Packers scares me, as well. How do we know that Starks' Wild Card performance isn't a fluke? Atlanta wins 28-14.

WIS' prediction: Packers 20-3
Madden's prediction: Falcons 22-19 (OT)
Sunday January 16, 2011

(4) Seattle Seahawks at (2) Chicago Bears (1 PM on FOX)

How Seattle won on Saturday: Perhaps one of the biggest upsets in NFL postseason history, I am still in shock that Seattle's offense put up 41 on the defending champions. It's obvious that Drew Brees had a spectacular game and did all he could to lead his Saints back to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately his 404 yards and two touchdowns (and 36 points scored) weren't enough for the Saints to squeeze out a victory as the defense allowed four passing touchdowns.

The greatest run in postseason history was basically the knock-out blow with just over three minutes to play. Former Buffalo Bills' running back Marshawn Lynch, who at one point was one small mistake from being out of the league for good, broke eight tackles on a 67-yard touchdown run that put the 'Hawks up by 11. Brees came back and threw for one last touchdown pass to Devery Henderson, of course, but the five offensive touchdowns for Seattle was just too much to overcome.

What will need to be done to win this Sunday: Once again Seattle will be overmatched against Chicago, but that doesn't mean they don't have a shot. But Seattle will need to break 150 yards on the ground again against Chicago, and on the defensive side of the ball they cannot allow Jay Cutler to have a big day. They were able to get away with a huge day from Brees because of the amount of success the offense had against New Orleans. This week they will be on the road against a much tougher defense, though, and will need to match Chicago's explosiveness on both sides of the ball. In Seattle's week six victory over Chicago they played great defense by sacking Cutler six times and shutting down Matt Forte (8 attempts, 11 yards, 1 TD).

Who will win: As much as it is nice to see the underdog prevail, I just don't see these Seahawks doing it twice in a row. I doubted them last week and they proved me wrong, but it looks like they will have to do it again this Sunday. Hasselbeck could have a huge day in the passing game, but if they can't get anything going on the ground against Chicago's second-best run defense, they wont be able to keep up with Chicago's tempo. Chicago wins 24-10.

WIS' prediction: Seahawks 17-14
Madden's prediction: Seahawks 20-17
(6) New York Jets at (1) New England Patriots (4:15 PM on CBS)

How New York won on Saturday: Head coach Rex Ryan finally got the best of his mortal enemy Peyton Manning, limiting him to just 225 yards passing and one offensive touchdown. But it wasn't as convincing a victory as Jets' fans were hoping for as kicker Nick Folk squeezed a 32-yard field goal through the uprights as time expired. If it wasn't for New York's powerful run game (led by L.T.'s 82 yards and two touchdowns), New York wouldn't have had a chance against Indy's 20th-ranked overall defense. Second-year quarterback Mark Sanchez looked jittery and threw a key red zone interception just before the half. Ryan's defense kept the team in it despite zero turnovers and just four Indy punts. Ball control was key in this game as New York held on to the ball for 33 of the game's 60 minutes.

What will need to be done this Sunday: With the amount of trash-talking coming from coach Ryan and cornerback Antonio Cromartie have been doing this week, New York's defense will certainly need to step up. New England has the league's hottest offense, scoring at least 30 points in each of its final eight games this season, including 45 in a week 13 matchup with this same Jets team. Throughout the season, New York was the sixth-best scoring defense and was third-best in the league in total defense.

But, Tom Brady's Pats are the highest-scoring offense and are arguably the most balanced offense out there. On the defensive side of the ball New England's young defense is highly underrated, and picked off the opposition 25 times this season (most in the league). Sanchez will need to be 100% mistake-free and New York will need to get pressure on Brady nearly every play.

Who will win: This will be the one game that I don't think will be close. At all. Rex Ryan's defense really doesn't stand a chance against Brady and Belichick's pass-oriented offense, and Mark Sanchez is in for a long day against New England's quick defense. The game will be over at halftime. New England wins 31-10.

WIS' prediction: Jets 27-6
Madden's prediction: Patriots 34-17
The rest of the postseason, according to Whatifsports...

Conference Championships:

AFC...Steelers 21, Jets 7

NFC...Packers 31, Seahawks 20

Seattle gets the privilege of hosting a second playoff game despite their 7-9 regular season record, but Rodgers earns his first Super Bowl appearance with an 11-point victory over Hasselbeck's squad.

Pittsburgh lucked out with Sanchez's shellacking of the Pats in the second round, and didn't have much trouble handing the Jets its second consecutive AFC Championship loss in a 14-point victory.

Super Bowl:

Steelers 44, Packers 24

MVP: Ben Roethlisberger (17/24, 243 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs)

Ben gets his third Super Bowl ring with his MVP performance against the Pack as his offense puts up 44 points.

The rest of the postseason according to Madden...

Conference Championships:

AFC...Steelers 31, Patriots 20

NFC...Falcons 24, Seahawks 19

Super Bowl:

Steelers 29, Falcons 17

MVP: Rashard Mendenhall (22 rush attempts, 132 yards, 2 TDs)

I swear to you I had nothing to do with the outcome of these simulations. Pittsburgh has prevailed, capturing the team's seventh Lombardi trophy according to both Whatifsports.com and Madden 2011.

**The Baltimore/Pittsburgh Divisional matchup seems to be the only one in which one team has been favored by myself, Whatifsports and Madden's simulation. Interestingly enough, all three have seen a mixed result in predictions. I wish I could say that I think there will be an upset this weekend, but I just don't think it will happen and I have justified my reasoning in the above article. That's why the National Football League is so great, though, anything can happen on any given Sunday.

Who knows what this weekend holds for us. We could witness history.

Photo credit
Flacco and Roethlisberger: AP Photo/Nick Wass
Tony Gonzalez: AP Photo/Rich Addicks
Jay Cutler: AP Photo/John Smierciak
Deion Branch: AP Photo/Charles Krupa

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Rex, Cromartie Continue to Blast Brady and the Pats; When Will They Learn?

When are these Jets ever going to learn? I respect Rex Ryan and all for what he has done with these Jets despite an inconsistent and inexperienced Mark Sanchez at the helm of the offense. But when is this never-ending trash talk with the Pats going to end?

Antonio Cromartie, New York's cornerback, was the latest to sound off and "bash" Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. What I find rather funny in this particular situation is that Cromartie has played in seven career postseason games (3-4 record) and two of his four losses came against Brady and Belichick's Pats while he was playing in San Diego.

Anyways, of all teams, the Jets are in no position to trash Brady and the Patriots. This decade alone the Patriots have defeated the Jets 15 out of 23 games, including once in the playoffs (the score of that game was 37-16).
Now obviously we have entered a new era with head coach Rex Ryan coming in to the picture last season, and since he has taken over, the Jets and Patriots have each won two head-to-head games--a season series split last year and this year.

The most recent memory between New York and New England, though, was an embarrassing 45-3 beat down at Foxboro. New York's sixth overall defense couldn't force a single turnover then (at NE) and against the Colts this past week, so how do they expect to force any this week against the near-perfect Tom Brady, who threw just five interceptions this season (least amount in the league).

New England's second half offense put up 30 points or more in eight straight games, and over that stretch they played defenses such as Pittsburgh, Chicago and Green Bay. All three of those teams are in the top four in scoring defense.

Rex and his shenanigans started out just a fun little way of him having a good time and relieving some stress that builds up as an NFL head coach, but as of late he has crossed the line far too many times.

For the New York Jets to walk in to Foxboro Sunday afternoon and soundly defeat the New England Patriots on their home turf, a place where they are 11-2 all-time in the postseason, the entire squad will need to be 100% mistake-free. And, yes, I am pointing at you, Mark Sanchez!
Until this happens, I suggest you (Rex Ryan and Antonio Cromartie) to keep your mouths shut. Thank you very much.

Interesting Fact: Five teams in NFL history (including this year's Jets) have been beaten by a team by 37 or more points in the regular season and then played them again later that year in the postseason. Of the previous four teams (2009 Bengals vs. Jets, 1991 Lions vs. Redskins, 1991 Falcons vs. Redskins, 1969 Browns vs. Vikings) none of those teams have managed to redeem themselves and pull off a victory.

Personally, I can't wait until the two teams hit the field and Tom Brady shows the Jets how to play football...without all the unneeded trash-talking which the Jets like to do so much. Some people enjoy it, but it has gotten way too out-of-hand and this is why I respect Brady and Belichick so much. They don't let Rex get to them and they just go out every week and show the nation how it's done. Gotta respect that.

Rex later said he and the Jets' organization "respect Tom Brady and the Patriots," and the way he's talked about them in the past there's no way that's true. Sorry, Rex, but I may have to call BS on your comment.

And once again, after watching Sammy Morris, Alge Crumpler and Deion Branch answer questions in a press conference, they didn't take any shots against the Jets. But instead, they simply said they were gonna do all they can to protect Brady.

Photo credit
Mark Sanchez: AP Photo/Charles Krupa
BenJarvus Green Ellis: AP Photo/StephanSavola

Saturday, January 8, 2011

Last-second Preview: Things to Consider While Watching Saints/Seahawks Game

Just a couple of hours separate us from the kick-off to the 2010-2011 NFL playoffs. The first matchup between the 11-5 Saints, the fifth seed, and the 7-9 Seahawks, the fourth seed in the NFC playoff bracket would appear to be a cakewalk for the defending champions.

*Keys for the Seahawks:

1. Run, run, run.

2. Pressure Drew Brees

3. Protect the ball! Hasselbeck tied a career-high this season with 17 interceptions, even while missing two games due to injury. He missed last week's game against the Rams and may start the game off a bit rusty. He wont be throwing the ball any more than 30 times today, and will need to play mistake-free football to give Seattle a chance.

*Why you can't rule the Seahawks out of this one:

-New Orleans' top two running backs--Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory--are both inactive for today's game. In fact, they have both been placed on the injured reserve and will not be available at all this postseason. Not only does that affect the Saint hugely this week, but they will likely be one dimensional all postseason.

-In addition to the Thomas and Ivory injuries, the Saints have four other players who have been ruled out for the game today. Three of those four players are on the defensive side of the ball, including starting free safety Malcolm Jenkins. Veteran five-time Pro Bowler Darren Sharper is expected to start in his place though he has been limited to just eight games this season as he been battling numerous injuries. We'll see if head coach Pete Carroll decides to pick on the vulnerable Sharper in the passing game today.
-New Orleans' pass defense: 193.9 yards/game (4th), run defense: 112.3 yards/game (16th)...Seattle's run attack is 31st in the league, but don't be surprised if you see a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett early on anyway. Seattle has had the game's top rusher only five times this season, but they put up a 5-0 record during those games, and scored 30-plus points in two of those games.

--No matter which way you look at it, Seattle's best chance at winning this game is to run the ball affectively and limit turnovers.

*History is on Seattle's side:

These two teams have met just 11 times, all in the regular season. So, yes, this is the first postseason meeting between New Orleans and Seattle. But, the Seahawks have won three out of the last four meetings (New Orleans holds series lead, 6-5, after defeating Seattle at home earlier this season), and have outscored the Saints 256-234 in the series.

Also, defending champions always have a hard time. In the past eight years, only one team (2004 Patriots) have made it out of the second round. And, only two teams (2004 Patriots and 2005 Patriots) even managed to come away with a playoff victory the following season.
Oh and did I mention the fact that the Saints have to go in to Qwest Field, a very tough place to play for opposing teams considering the noise level (leads to quite a few false start penalties) and the crappy Washington (state) weather?

Having said all this, I am still picking the Saints to pull away with a victory. But wouldn't this be quite a game if Seattle is able to keep up with Brees and his cannon of a right arm?

My pick: New Orleans 31-17
Whatifsports.com's pick: Seattle 29-24

Interesting to see the simulation pulling for the upset. We'll see how all of this plays out in approximately two hours. Check back later for updates, I may do a live blog of the game if I'm up for it. Enjoy.

(Note: This is my 100th blog post here on All-Out Blitz. I haven't exactly gotten many readers at all but I'm working on that.)

Photo Credit
Drew Brees: Aaron M. Sprecher/NFL
Leon Washington: AP Photo/Ted S. Warren

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Wild Card X-Factors

When playoff times rolls around, usually just a couple of key players end up making the largest impact on the game's outcome. Each of the eight teams competing for a spot in the second round of the playoffs have guys who I think will be the deciding "X-Factor" for his respective team.

New Orleans at Seattle, Saturday 4:30 PM ET

Saints X Factor: Drew Brees

With the loss of New Orleans' top two running backs in 2010, Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas, both of whom will miss Saturday's game due to injury, even more pressure will be put on defending Super Bowl MVP Drew Brees. If he can't get off to a quick start I don't see him having any trouble carving up Seattle's defense with quick, intermediate passes on the perimeter of the field. A couple of deep balls to Marques Colston could be a lethal weapon in the match-up with the league's 27th-ranked passing defense. On the road this season Brees has 16 TDs/10 INTs (6-2 record).
Seahawks X Factor: Lofa Tatupu

Without an active Ivory and Thomas available this Saturday, and Reggie Bush (150 rushing yards in eight games this season) making the start at running back, Seattle's defense has their work cut out for them. They know Brees will be throwing the football freely and that if they can force a couple of Brees turnovers they would give their offense a shot at putting points on the board. That's why its up to Seattle's defensive captain--and leader--Tatupu to keep his 'Hawks in the game and make sure they are focused on stopping the pass. Tatupu (58 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT this season) doesn't specialize is rushing the passer, but is a great coverage 'backer and is the backbone of Seattle's defense.

New York at Indianapolis, Saturday 8 PM ET

Jets X Factor: Brad Smith

The former quarterback out of Mizzou has had success against Indy before, in fact in last year's AFC Championship game he made a couple of big plays albeit in a losing effort. The Jets' defense as a whole will be a pretty big factor against the Hall of Fame-bound Peyton Manning, but the real x-factor I believe will be the elusive receiver/return man. He can be used with trick plays and formations such as the wildcat and pistol formation. Out of those two formations he has shown he can make an impact both running the ball and throwing it deep. Not only that, but he also has three career kick return touchdowns, two of which he ran back this season. Head coach Rex Ryan has several ways of using Smith, and he will most definitely incorporate him in to his game plan against Indy.
Colts X Factor: Dwight Freeney

We all know the Colts struggle stopping the run, and that the Jets will likely take advantage of that. It's so bad that the Colts may even just allow the Jets to run the ball and completely shut down Mark Sanchez's passing offense. Last year, when Indy knocked New York out of the playoffs in the Conference Championship game, then-rookie Mark Sanchez threw for 257 yards and two touchdowns (1 INT), yet the offense still only managed 17 points against Indy. With Freeney's nine sacks in 11 career playoff games, I don't expect him to lay off of Sanchez this week. Expect a couple of Freeney sacks, and a couple of New York turnovers at the expense of Sanchez, who still has a lot of maturing to do.

Baltimore at Kansas City, Sunday 1 PM ET

Ravens X Factor: Ed Reed

This past Sunday against the Bengals, Baltimore's free safety Ed Reed posted his 11th career two interception game. What's even more miraculous about this feat is that the Ravens are 11-0 when the seven-time Pro Bowler has at least two interceptions in a game. On the defensive side of the ball, it isn't nose tackle Haloti Ngata, veteran Terrell Suggs or even the seven-time first team All Pro linebacker Ray Lewis that KC's quarterback Matt Cassel needs to look out for. It's the roaming ball-hawk Ed Reed that needs to be contained.
Chiefs X Factor: Jamaal Charles

After reading what I wrote about Reed above, it's obvious that if Kansas City wants to win this game they will need to have success on the ground. With the league's top rushing attack, Charles' career-high 1,467 yards on the ground will surely be tested against Baltimore's fifth-best run defense, which allowed just 1,503 yards rushing all year. Despite topping the league in rushing yards, Kansas City struggled to get the ball in the end zone while running the ball. Kansas City will need to get the ball to Charles 25-30 times in order to have a shot at controlling the clock--and the game.

Green Bay at Philadelphia, Sunday 4:30 PM ET

Packers X Factor: Clay Matthews III

On defense, there's no doubt Matthews is the nucleus. After a solid rookie performance in '09 (36 tackles, 10 sacks, 7 PD, 1 FF, 1 FR TD), Matthews one-uped himself with an even better 2010 season, quickly making a name for himself. His 54 tackles, 13.5 sacks and interception landed him a second straight Pro Bowl selection. Not only have his numbers been solid, but he has also imposed fear in his opposition. Quarterbacks now need to know where No. 52 is at all times when they step on to the field. He's not all that large (6'3'', 246 pounds) in comparison to other linebackers, but his speed and strength is baffling. He is the Packers' key to containing Vick and keeping him inside the numbers. Once Vick bounces to the outside it is tough to stop him. Look for Matthews to be running sideline-to-sideline on Sunday.
Eagles X Factor: Michael Vick

Vick says he has recovered from his thigh injury and is "100 percent" ready to go on Sunday. But we should all still keep an eye on Vick's thigh. If Green Bay's defense is all over Vick he could re-injure his thigh at any moment. If he is ready to go like he says he is, though, Green Bay could be in for a long day. That's why, of course, Matthews is my X-Factor for Green Bay. The result of this game will vary depending on who shows up and is ready to play. If Vick can break out for a couple of big plays against Matthews' defense, Philly could take this one at home.

Photo Credit
Lofa Tatupu and Jordan Babineaux: AP Photo/John Smierciak
Brad Smith: AP Photo/Bill Kostroun
Jamaal Charles: AP Photo/Ed Zurga
Clay Matthews: AP Photo/Morry Gash

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Steelers, Falcons Solidify First Round Byes; Other News from Early Game Action

With Mike Tomlin's Pittsburgh Steelers easily handling AFC North rival Cleveland Browns, 41-9, in their 1:00 P.M. match-up, the Steelers clinched both the second seed in the AFC playoffs and a first round bye. Atlanta, on the NFC side of things, took care of Carolina, 31-10, to take the top seed and of course the first round bye.

Despite coming out with the victory over Cincinnati and finishing the season with a 12-4 record, the Baltimore Ravens had to settle for the fifth seed in the playoffs while Rex Ryan's Jets hold the sixth seed.

Other headline-making news in the football world today:

*With their loss to Oakland and Indy's recent 23-20 victory over Tennessee--thanks to a game-winning field goal by veteran Adam Vinateri--the Kansas City Chiefs were bumped down to the fourth seed. Peyton's win awarded him Kansas City's third seed.

*AFC Wild Card Match-ups for next week:

Baltimore @ Kansas City
New York @ Indianapolis
(Note: The Colts have tied an NFL record with their ninth consecutive playoff appearance)
*Jacksonville, needing both a win and a Colts loss, were doubled up by Houston, 34-17, and subsequently eliminated from contention.

*The Bucs, needing a win to have a shot at making the "Second Season" A.K.A. the postseason, defeated the already playoff-bound New Orleans Saints. New Orleans, whether they won or lost, basically already had the fifth seed wrapped up.

*Unfortunately for Tampa, they needed both the Packers and Giants to lose for them to move on. That didn't happen after Green Bay defeated Jay Cutler's Bears 10-3, putting the Pack in as the sixth seed. Which also means that despite New York's 17-14 victory over the Skins, they will miss the playoffs this season.

*With the Eagles' loss to Dallas, Chicago was given the No. 2 seed, Philly now holds the No. 3 seed.

*The NFC Wild Card match-ups are still up in the air. We know the Eagles will be hosting the Packers, but it's unclear who the Saints will be playing. The winner of the St. Louis/Seattle prime-time matchup will host New Orleans next week. Either way, I do think it's safe to say the Saints will be moving on to the second round, but you just never know. Anything could happen.

*Coaching changes: both Minnesota's and Dallas' interim coaches, Leslie Frazier and Jason Garrett respectively, are expected to be named their team's head coaches.

The games that didn't matter:

Patriots(#) 38, Dolphins 7
Jets (#) 38, Bills 7
Lions 20, Vikings 13
Chargers 33, Broncos 28
Niners 38, Cardinals 7

# already clinched a playoff spot

Photo Credit
Ray Lewis: AP Photo/Rob Carr

Whatifsports crowns a Super Bowl Champ

Using my projected playoff seedings from my previous post (see below), I have run through all three rounds of the playoffs, and the Super Bowl, using Whatifsports.com's free online simulator "SimMatchup." It isn't exactly 100 percent accurate, and obviously the playoff seedings are based off my predictions of tomorrow's games, but it is always nice to provide a little entertainment.

First off here are the AFC and NFC seedings, just in case you don't feel like scrolling down to my previous post:

AFC
1. Patriots 14-2
2. Steelers 12-4
3. Chiefs 11-5
4. Colts 10-6
5. Ravens 12-4
6. Jets 11-5

NFC
1. Falcons 13-3
2. Bears 12-4
3. Eagles 11-5
4. Rams 8-8
5. Saints 12-4
6. Giants 10-6

...And the match-ups/outcomes of each round. Enjoy!

Wild Card Round

AFC

Chiefs 16, Jets 14...no touchdowns, two interceptions and only 133 yards passing for K.C.'s Matt Cassel, but Jamaal Charles' 101 yards rushing, including a 54-yard touchdown run just before the half were enough for Kansas City to sneak in to the next round. Another win at Arrowhead, 9-0 on the season now, and there's a slight chance they could get another home game down the road.

Colts 31, Ravens 13...this is now two years in a row that the Colts have knocked the Ravens out of the playoffs. Let's just face it, Manning's had an off year (no touchdowns, 1 INT, 208 yards in this simulation), but believe it or not Indy's run game bailed him out in this one. Donald Brown ran for 73 yards and a touchdown while the fresh Joseph Addai ran for 40 yards and, yes, three touchdowns. Flacco's two interceptions didn't help the cause too much either.
NFC

Giants 24, Eagles 7...my, oh my have the tables turned on Vick and the Eagles. Just a couple of weeks ago Philly scored 28 points in the final five minutes of play to shock Eli Manning and the G-Men. Eli has seemed to get it together and led his Giants to victory, though it was truly the ground game that took control as all four of the game's touchdowns came on the ground. Osi Umenyiora's four sacks allowed the Giants to keep Vick under control and forced a couple of Vick mistakes.

Saints 20, Rams 17...it doesn't seem right that the Rams (8-8) are hosting the Saints (12-4) in a playoff game, but that didn't seem to bother Drew Brees any as he threw for 230-plus yards and a touchdown in the three-point victory, which was a closer call than it should have been. Pierre Thomas' 113 yards on the ground allowed the Saints to get off to a 13-0 start, but New Orleans' defense allowed 17 second half points and nearly gave up the lead late in the game. Luckily, St. Louis just flat out ran out of time in the end.

Divisional Round

AFC

Patriots 34, Colts 10...Tom Brady just seems to have Peyton Manning's number. New England has been on fire for a good part of the season, and this 24-point blowout doesn't much surprise me, nor anyone else for that matter. The Patriots are most certainly the best all-around team in the league right now and this simulation surely displays that. I'd hate to face Brady in Foxboro, especially in January.

Steelers 16, Chiefs 10...it really is tough to beat playoff football at Heinz Field, especially when two teams of (KC and PIT's) caliber are facing off. Hard-nosed defenses and tough running games. Matt Cassel could have been named a Pro Bowler this season if it wasn't for names such as Manning and Rivers, but he didn't seem like a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback in this game, going an ugly 4 for 16 for 66 yards against Pittsburgh's defense. On the other side of the field, Ben Roethlisberger went 21 of 29 for 200 yards. The running game of Pittsburgh allowed them to control the t.o.p. and eventually run out the clock on the Chiefs and their Super Bowl hopes.
NFC

Giants 26, Falcons 14...this is starting to look a lot like the 2007 season in which Eli led New York to three consecutive road playoff victories as the sixth seed in the NFC playoffs, and then went on to defeat the "Giant," undefeated New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. One of the single greatest upsets in professional sports history. In this game, Eli threw for 315 yards and a touchdown after trailing early. Once again New York's run game allowed the G-Men to absolutely dominate the time of possession (held the ball for nearly 40 minutes of the game). Umenyiora added another sack, making that five in two playoff games.

Saints 19, Bears 13...a rematch of the 2006 NFC Championship, only this time the Saints contained Devin Hester and knocked the fiesty Bears out of the playoffs before their Super Bowl hunt really got going. Another close game for Brees, but kicker Garrett Hartley's 28 yard field goal halfway through the fourth quarter sent the game in to overtime. In OT, the electric playmaker Reggie Bush ran the game-winner in from 29 yards out with just over five minutes to play. Two road playoff victories but six or less points for the Saints. Believe it or not, according to WIS both of the NFC's Wild Card teams made it to the NFC Championship game. Interesting.

Conference Championships

AFC

Patriots 19, Steelers 7...once again, for the fifth time in the 2000s, the Patriots are headed to the Super Bowl. Brady and Roethlisberger both made costly errors (one INT each, both led to scores), but Brady's 208 passing yards and Danny Woodhead's 66 rushing yards and 23-yard touchdown run late in the game were enough to squeeze past the No. 2 seeded Pittsburgh Steelers in Foxboro. They will face either the Saints or Giants, both NFC Wild Card teams, in Super Bowl XLV.

NFC

Saints 17, Giants 10...finally, a home playoff game for the Saints', and they surely took advantage of it. The defending Super Bowl champs have captured the NFC championship for the second straight season. It was Chris Ivory's 31-yard touchdown catch from Brees late in the game which gave them the lead for good as New Orleans' defense solidified the victory with a Darren Sharper INT. New York's attempt at another cinderella story has failed, meaning it will be a Brady/Brees Super Bowl. Should be interesting.
Super Bowl XLV

Patriots 30, Saints 0

Wow, certainly not what I was expecting. I mean, yeah, we all knew that this may happen (Patriots winning Super Bowl) with the way they've been playing. But shutting out Drew Brees and his Saints' offense (just 161 passing yards and one INT with no touchdowns)? No way would I have predicted this. Brady threw for 223 yards and a touchdown as he captured his fourth Lombardi Trophy for the Pats. Sure first-ballot Hall of Famer after this performance if he wasn't already.

MVP: Tom Brady (third of his career)

Photo Credit
Reggie Bush: Aaron M. Sprecher/NFL
Mike Wallace: AP Photo/Gene Puskar
Danny Woodhead: AP Photo/David Duprey

How it will all play out

Hopefully everyone had a wonderful New Years this year, and all the coaches and players enjoyed time with their families over the holidays, because from here on out, it's all business (although for most it still was all about business).

Tomorrow marks end of the 2010 regular season, meaning the playoffs are just around the corner. Of the 12 available playoff seeds, nine have been clinched and only three are left up for grabs. But, only one of the four first round byes have been clinched (Patriots).

Since commissioner Roger Goodell introduced his new plan (last season) of only division matchups during the final weekend of play, we will get to witness 16 games between rivals tomorrow, making for exciting January football.

Here are the scenarios for teams looking for playoff berths tomorrow:

In the AFC...

*Clinched
--Patriots 13-2, AFCE division, first round bye
--Jets 10-5, playoff spot
--Steelers 11-4, playoff spot
--Ravens 11-4, playoff spot
--Chiefs 10-5, AFCW division

*Can Clinch
--Colts (9-6) can clinch the AFC South with a win over Tennessee OR a Jacksonville loss.
--Jaguars (8-7) can clinch the AFC South with a win over Houston AND an Indianapolis loss.

*Seeding Scenarios
--Pittsburgh will win AFC North with a win over Cleveland OR a Baltimore loss. If they win they will also be awarded the second seed in the playoffs.
--Baltimore can win the AFC North with a win over Cincinnati AND a Pittsburgh loss. If they do not win the division but win tomorrow they will be the fifth seed in the playoffs (hold head-to-head tiebreaker over New York Jets).

(Note: You heard it here first! This year the Kansas City Chiefs will be the '08 Cardinals. A.K.A. the sleepers of the 2010-2011 playoffs. Especially since they'll play at least one game at home in Arrowhead Stadium. Don't underestimate K.C.)

*Prediction: Without David Garrard under center for the Jags, the Texans will shock Jacksonville and ruin their playoff hopes, giving Peyton Manning's Colts the AFC South title. Steelers beat the Browns (and Ravens beat Bengals), to give them both an 12-4 record, but the Steelers' hold the tiebreaker and will take the North title and first round bye. Projected seedings: 1. Patriots, 2. Steelers, 3. Chiefs, 4. Colts, 5. Ravens, 6. Jets.
In the NFC...

*Clinched
--Eagles 10-5, NFCE division
--Bears 11-4, NFCN division
--Falcons 12-3, playoff spot
--Saints 11-4, playoff spot

*Can Clinch
--Packers can clinch Wild Card spot with a win over Chicago OR a New York Loss.
--Giants can clinch Wild Card spot with a win over Washington AND losses by Green Bay and Tampa Bay.
--Tampa Bay can clinch Wild Card spot with a win over New Orleans AND losses by Green Bay and New York.
--Winner of St. Louis/Seattle game wins the NFC West division.

*Seeding scenarios
--Atlanta can clinch the division with a win over Carolina.
--New Orleans can clinch the division with a win over Tampa Bay AND an Atlanta loss.
--If Atlanta wins they will be awarded the top seed in the NFC and a first round bye.

Prediction: Atlanta clinches the South, and top spot in the NFC, as they easily handle the Panthers, meaning despite the victory over Tampa Bay, the Saints can only finish the season with a Wild Card spot. The Bears defeat the Packers, giving them the second seed in the NFC (Eagles clinch second seed with victory over Cowboys). With losses from Green Bay and Tampa Bay, the Giants clinch a spot with their victory over the Skins, despite Eli's horrendous four interception game against the Packers one week ago. The Rams, led by rookie quarterback Sam Bradford, defeat the Seahawks in primetime to clinch the West, despite an unimpressive 8-8 record. Projected seedings: 1. Falcons, 2. Bears, 3. Eagles, 4. Rams, 5. Saints, 6. Giants.
One more interesting piece of information to keep in mind while tuning in tomorrow:

New England and Kansas City are trying to become the only two teams this season to finish with a perfect record at home. They will most definitely be two of the toughest places to play in the postseason as well, so beware.

With three playoff spots still to be clinched, it looks like we're in for one crazy slate of Sunday games. Lucky us, huh?

Oh, I almost forgot! Here are my game picks as well. Might as well include them with this article...

Falcons over Panthers
Ravens over Bengals
Steelers over Browns
Vikings over Lions
Chiefs over Raiders
Patriots over Dolphins
Saints over Buccaneers
Jets over Bills
Broncos over Chargers
Bears over Packers
Texans over Jaguars
Colts over Titans
Eagles over Cowboys
Cardinals over Niners
Giants over Skins
Rams over Seahawks (Primetime!)

Photo Credit
Robert Mathis: AP Photo/Jose Sanchez
Matt Forte: AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh