Showing posts with label Passing Yards Record. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Passing Yards Record. Show all posts

Friday, June 29, 2012

2012: Year of the 600-point offense?

The 2011 regular season was dubbed "Year of the Quarterback" by analysts, football writers and experts everywhere.

Finishing the season with three 5,000 yard passers, bringing the all-time total from two (Dan Marino and Drew Brees) to five (Marino, Tom Brady, Matt Stafford and Drew Brees twice), the quarterbacks ruled the National Football League.

Add in the fact that the top two picks of the draft in April were premier college passers, including the "best QB prospect of all-time" (Indy's Andrew Luck) as stated by numerous scouts, and you have a recipe for another record-breaking offensive season.

Two seasons ago we witnessed the New England Patriots' offense top 500 points. Last season the Patriots topped 500 again, but so did the Saints (13-3 record w/ 547 points) and the league-leading Packers (15-1 record w/ 560 points).

No team has ever scored 600 points in a single-season, in fact the 2007 Patriots hold the record with 589. But I'm going out on a limb and making this statement: there will be a team to put up 600 in 16 games this season.
It's a bold statement, I know. But offenses are passing more than ever, and if we can see three 5,000 yard passers in a single-season, who says a team can't put up 600? The emergence of rookies Luck and Robert Griffin III, arguably two of the top quarterback prospects this game has seen, gives us an even better shot at witnessing a stunt such as this.

Luck and RGIII are not a sure-thing of course, despite the statements that say they are. But if they live up to expectations, we could see another incline in passing stats as a whole this season. Defenses are continuing to be a smaller factor, especially after the BountyGate investigations on the Saints' defense this season.

With the opposing defenses under an even larger microscope, I am expecting another offensive production increase.

The NFL is a copycat league, so there is bound to be a couple more two-tight end systems around the league. We all saw what the Pats did with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez as Gronk put up the single most effective tight end season of all-time (90 catchers, 1,327 yards, 17 TDs).

A top five scoring offense came just a couple of points from a Super Bowl championship despite a 31st-ranked defense. Defense wins championships? Yeah, that may be true. But we're quickly making a transition from defensive domination to the idea that a pass-happy offense trumps any defense that lines up in front of you.

In total, teams averaged 229.7 yards through the air per game last season. In 2002, 12 years ago, we saw an average of 212.2 per game. Doesn't appear to be a large difference (17.5 yards), but it really is.
There's damning evidence that shows the offensive takeover throughout the last 10 seasons. In 2011 just five of the top 10 overall ranked defenses were playoff teams. In 2002? Seven. In 1992? Nine. With each passing season, passers appear to dominate just a tad more than the previous season.

The "trench warfare" of the '60s, '70s and '80s appears to be over and the 21st century of the League has been quite a change of pace in terms of offensive production. Apparently now it's possible to achieve greatness without a top rusher, as New England and New York both found themselves in the bottom half of rushing production–New York was actually 32nd in rushing yards.

If Brees is able to sign a new contract by the time July 16 rolls around, then we could see him pass for his third career 5,000 yard season. Hell, even if he doesn't and he's playing this season under his Franchise Tag salary (still a huge sum of money) he still shouldn't have much trouble surpassing 5,000. Brady and Stafford could repeat, and we may even see guys such as NFL Network's No. 1 player Aaron Rodgers, Denver's Peyton Manning and Dallas' Tony Romo come close to the mark.

The only three teams in the top 10 passing offense that failed to make the playoffs were Philadelphia, Dallas and San Diego. All three teams finished at 8-8, just missing the postseason.

San Francisco ranked 29th in passing offense yet came just shy of a Super Bowl appearance. They are the lone exception, however, because of the simple fact that they were a devastating defensive team (2nd in scoring defense) and saw a career-year from quarterback Alex Smith, who was previously dubbed a draft bust.

On offense San Fran turned the ball over the least (10 times, just five INTs), which is a huge factor in an effective offense. So they weren't flashy, but Smith did what he could to lead the Niners to victory with the help from a smash-mouth defense. Expect Smith to throw the ball another 450 times this season, especially given his new targets.

* * * * *

I don't expect Luck and RGIII to step in and be the savior that their respective franchise has been searching for...right away, at least. But wouldn't it be a great story if they each broke Cam Newton's rookie passing record of 4,051 yards. A record he just set this past season.
Moral of the story? A prolific scoring offense is almost a necessity for success in today's game, and it's a fact that we are now seeing more complex offensive systems. Defensive coordinators will need to find a way to effectively slow down the 2-TE system, because whether they like it or not, that sort of thing is totally in right now.

Stopping the run? Who cares. You will need a strong pass-rushing front seven and a shutdown corner in order to get your defense off the field in 2012.

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Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Brees Continues Quest Towards Immortality

The New Orleans Saints (12-3) clinched the NFC South division title with its 45-16 victory over the playoff-bound Atlanta Falcons on Monday night. The victory wrapped up Week 16's slate of games, and also put signal caller Drew Brees one step closer to Hall of Fame immortality.

Prior to the game, Brees was a mere 305 yards away from breaking Dan Marino's 27 year old single-season passing yards record. At approximately 10:35 PM ET Brees, his team already up by a score of 38-16 with under three minutes to play, threw a nine-yard strike to running back Darren Sproles for a touchdown, extending the large lead.

The pass put Brees at 5,087 yards on the year, eclipsing Marino's total (5,084) by three yards. The most miraculous part of this feat? Well, actually there are two points that I would like to bring up: 1) Brees still has one game remaining in the season to extend the new total and 2) Brees is now the only quarterback in NFL history to put up two 5,000 yard passing seasons in a single career (5,069 in 2008).

Now, the record seems to be tarnished a bit–by experts and fans alike–because of the rule changes involving receivers and defensive backs, and the pass-happy offenses in the game today. But personally, I don't think that takes away from his accomplishment at all.

Yes, it's true that New England's Tom Brady will likely exceed 5,000 this year as well, making him the third different quarterback in history to do so. But you still don't see too many other quarterbacks in pass-heavy offenses pulling this feat off in today's game, do you? Hall of Fame-bound quarterback Peyton Manning has exceeded 500 passes in his career on 11 different occasions (600 once) and has yet to reach 5,000.
The likes of Brees, Brady and Manning have revolutionized the way the football is thrown in modern offenses, and I truly don't think it's fair to penalize him for his era. Brees, Brady, Manning and Brett Favre are in a class of their own, and there wont be too many other quarterbacks out there like Brees, who has accomplished so much despite his stout 6'0'' frame.

Brees, who was named to his sixth career Pro Bowl 11th career season on Tuesday night, has three All Pro selections (2006, '08, '09), two NFC MVP awards (2008, 2009), an AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year award (2008), AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year award (2004), Sportsman of the Year award (2010) a Lombardi trophy (XLIV) and a Super Bowl MVP–all to his name.

His spot at No. 9 on the all-time passing touchdowns list (276) and No. 12 on the all-time passing yards list (40,353) shows me that he has already proven he belongs in a class with the elite, and he very well could improve on that by the end of the playoffs if he's able to make a run at another Lombardi trophy for his city.

You judge a quarterback on his ability under the spotlight, and that's another aspect that Brees has continued to excel in: the playoffs.

In seven career postseason games (including one with San Diego in 2004, and Super Bowl XLIV w/ New Orleans), Brees has posted a near perfect stat-line, with a quarterback rating over 100.

Brees in the playoffs: 4-3 record; 189/285, 66.3%, 2,052 yards, 15 TD, 2 INT, 102.0 QBR
His win-loss record isn't anything spectacular, but his worst game of the seven was a game in which his Saints gave up 39 points to Chicago and he had to face the top defense in snowy Soldier Field. He threw for 354 yards and two touchdowns, his one interception came at a price but lets face it, he didn't get much help in that one.

Brees steps his game up when his team needs him the most and I think the only thing that would stop him from getting into Canton (if he was to retire right this second) is a lack of sufficient evidence. And by that, I mean it's not quite enough stats and individual wins for him to be inducted ahead of others.

Give him another solid year or two and he will undoubtedly be a shoo-in for first ballot. He's something special, and I think his two seasons of 5,000 yards passing, despite his pass-happy playing era, should be more than enough for immortality.

Congratulations, Mr. Brees. Although I'm not so sure his record is quite as untouchable as Marino's was, lasting nearly 30 seasons.

Photo credit
Wesley Hitt/Getty Images
Chris Graythen/Getty Images